Cover -- Half-title -- Title -- Copyright -- Contents -- Preface -- Conversion table for imperial to metric units -- 1 Introduction -- 1.1 What is a plague? -- 1.2 Four ages of plague -- 1.2.1 Plague at Athens, 430-427 BC -- 1.2.2 The plague of Justinian -- 1.2.3 The Great Age of plagues: the Black Death and thereafter -- 1.2.4 Bubonic plague in the 20th century -- 1.3 The dangers of emerging plagues -- 1.4 Populations and metapopulations -- 1.5 A cautionary note -- 1.6 Pioneers in the study of plagues -- 1.7 Objectives -- 2 Epidemiological concepts -- 2.1 Transmission probability -- 2.2 Secondary attack rate -- 2.3 Basic reproductive number, R -- 2.4 Virulence, R and the case fatality ratio -- 2.5 Serial generation time: the Reed and Frost model -- 2.6 Contact rates -- 2.7 Decaying and driven epidemics -- 2.8 Time-series analysis of data -- 2.9 Lethal smallpox epidemics in London, 1650-1900: a case study -- 2.10 Mixing patterns -- 2.11 Open versus closed population dynamics -- 2.12 Spatial components of epidemic spread -- 3 The biology of bubonic plague -- 3.1 History and geographical distribution of bubonic plague -- 3.2 Yersinia pestis -- 3.3 The rodent host -- 3.4 Murine versus sylvatic phases -- 3.5 Black and brown rats -- 3.6 The role of the flea -- 3.7 Flea survival -- 3.8 Flea reproduction -- 3.9 Population dynamics of bubonic plague -- 3.10 Evolution of bubonic plague virulence -- 3.11 Spread of bubonic plague to humans -- 3.12 Clinical manifestations of bubonic plague in humans -- 3.13 The significance of pneumonic plague -- 3.14 Pathology -- 3.15 Case studies of the dynamics and epidemiology of bubonic plague in India in the 20th century -- 3.15.1 Mixed epizootics in Bombay City, 1905-6 -- 3.15.2 Epidemiology of bubonic plague in India in the 20th century -- 3.15.3 Effects of population size.

3.16 Conclusions: key points about the biology of bubonic plague -- 4 The Great Pestilence -- 4.1 Arrival of the Black Death in Europe -- 4.2 The plague in Sicily -- 4.3 Spread of the Black Death in continental Europe: a metapopulation pandemic -- 4.4 The pestilence arrives in England -- 4.5 The Great Pestilence moves through the Midlands to the north of England -- 4.6 Spread of the epidemic in northeast England -- 4.7 The consequences of the Black Death in England -- 4.8 The Black Death: conclusions -- 4.8.1 Reservations expressed by Shrewsbury -- 4.8.2 The death toll of the Black Death in England -- 4.8.3 Epidemiological notes on the Black Death -- 4.8.4 Effects of malnutrition -- 4.9 Seasonality of the outbreaks of the Great Pestilence in different localities in England -- 4.10 Was the Black Death an outbreak of bubonic plague? -- 4.11 Plagues in England following the Great Pestilence: the 14th century -- 4.12 Age-specific mortality of four epidemics in the 14th century -- 4.13 Plagues in the 15th century -- 5 Case study: the plague at Penrith in 1597-98 -- 5.1 Traditional account of events in the plague -- 5.2 Size of the population at Penrith -- 5.3 The three phases of the epidemic: the serial generation time and contact rate -- 5.4 Spread of the epidemic at Penrith -- 5.5 The epidemic during the first two phases: elucidation of the epidemiological characteristics of plague -- 5.6 Explosion of the epidemic in phase three -- 5.7 Age- and sex-specific mortality in the plague at Penrith -- 5.8 Wills and testaments of those who died in the plague at Penrith -- 5.9 Response of the population at Penrith after the plague -- 5.10 Classification of the epidemics of haemorrhagic plague -- 6 Pestilence and plague in the 16th century in England -- 6.1 The Sweating Sickness -- 6.2 Plagues in London in the 16th century -- 6.2.1 The first half of the century.

6.2.2 Did plague become endemic in London during the second half of the 16th century? -- 6.2.3 Epidemics in London, 1542-1600 -- 6.3 Plagues in central and southern England during the 16th century -- 6.4 Case study of the plague at Stratford-upon-Avon, 1564 -- 6.5 Conclusions -- 7 Plagues in the 16th century in northern England: a metapopulation study -- 7.1 The first half of the 16th century -- 7.2 Plague and pestilence in the Northern Province, 1550-95 -- 7.3 The plague of 1597-98 in northern England -- 7.4 Durham -- 7.5 The plague at Richmond -- 7.6 Plague arrives to the west of the Pennines -- 7.7 Carlisle -- 7.8 Minor outbreaks of the plague in the Eden Valley -- 7.9 Symptoms of the 1597-98 plague -- 7.10 Conclusions -- 8 Plagues in London in the 17th century -- 8.1 The outbreak in London in 1603 -- 8.2 Plague in London after the epidemic of 1603 -- 8.3 Plague in London in 1625 -- 8.4 Recovery of the population of London after 1625 -- 8.5 Plague in London in 1636 -- 8.6 The Great Plague in London in 1665-66 -- 8.6.1 Origins and spread of the epidemic -- 8.6.2 Seasonality and mortality -- 8.6.3 Signs and symptoms -- 8.6.4 Changes in virulence -- 8.6.5 Animals, clothing and wigs -- 8.6.6 Effect of the Great Fire of London -- 8.6.7 Identity of the first victim in households in plague epidemics in London -- 8.7 Dynamics of plague in London -- 9 Plagues in the provinces in the 17th century -- 9.1 The years 1603-5 -- 9.1.1 Spread of the plague in the northeast -- 9.1.2 Chester as a focus -- 9.1.3 Plague at Manchester -- 9.1.4 The Midlands and East Anglia -- 9.1.5 Southern England, 1603-5 -- 9.2 The years 1609-11 -- 9.3 The plague of 1625-26 -- 9.4 The years 1630-37 -- 9.5 Widespread plague in 1644-46 -- 9.5.1 The northeast corridor -- 9.5.2 The West Country -- 9.5.3 East Anglia and the Midlands -- 9.6 The mid-17th century -- 9.6.1 Chester as a focus.

9.6.2 Spread of the plague of 1665-66 through the metapopulation -- 9.7 Overview of plagues in England -- 10 Plague at Eyam in 1665-66: a case study -- 10.1 The traditional story of bubonic plague at Eyam -- 10.2 Origins of the plague at Eyam -- 10.3 The first phase of the epidemic -- 10.4 The second phase: maintenance of the epidemic through the winter -- 10.5 The third phase: explosion of the epidemic in summer 1666 -- 10.6 Percentage mortality of the population during the epidemic -- 10.7 Public health measures during the plague at Eyam -- 10.8 The nature of the infectious agent -- 11 Continental Europe during the third age of plagues: a study of large-scale metapopulation dynamics -- 11.1 Frequency of epidemics in the metapopulation of Europe -- 11.2 Plagues in France: the endemic situation -- 11.2.1 Oscillations in the frequency of the occurrence of epidemics -- 11.2.2 The 17th century in France -- 11.2.3 Regional differences within the metapopulation of France -- 11.2.4 Plague centroids in France -- 11.2.5 Localities with a high frequency of epidemics -- 11.3 Italy -- 11.3.1 Occurrence and frequency of the epidemics in Italy -- 11.3.2 Signs and symptoms -- 11.3.3 Analysis of the spread of epidemics -- 11.3.4 Plague epidemics in Italy -- 11.3.5 Conclusions -- 11.4 The Iberian peninsula -- 11.4.1 The major epidemics -- 11.4.2 Epidemics at Barcelona -- 11.5 Germany, Austria, Bohemia and Switzerland -- 11.6 The Benelux countries -- 11.7 Spread of the plague across Europe -- 12 The plague at Marseilles, 1720-22: an outbreak of bubonic plague? -- 12.1 Spread of the plague from Marseilles to the countryside -- 12.2 Spread of the plague at Aix and Apt -- 12.3 Spread of the plague at Mende and Marvéjols -- 13 Conclusions -- 13.1 The receptor for the entry of HIV.

13.2 Was the same causative agent responsible for all the plagues in England from 1348 to 1666? -- 13.3 Was Yersinia pestis the infectious agent in the plagues? -- 13.4 Classification of the plague epidemics in the provinces in England -- 13.5 Seasonality of the epidemics -- 13.6 Density dependence of plague epidemics -- 13.7 Endemic versus epidemic plague -- 13.8 How were plagues initiated? -- 13.9 Spread of the plague through the metapopulation -- 13.10 Resistance, immunity and virulence -- 13.11 Medium-wavelength oscillation in the spread of the plague -- 13.12 Symptoms -- 13.13 Public health measures and the significance of the period of quarantine -- 13.14 Why did the plague disappear? -- 13.15 What was the causative agent of haemorrhagic plague? -- 13.16 Co-existence of two plagues -- 13.17 Population recovery after the mortality crisis of a plague epidemic -- 13.18 Postscript -- References -- Index.