Policy Implications of Greenhouse Warming -- Copyright -- Preface -- Contents -- Part One Synthesis -- 1 Introduction -- 2 Background -- THE GLOBAL NATURE OF GREENHOUSE WARMING -- GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS FROM HUMAN ACTIVITIES -- THE EFFECTS OF WORLD POPULATION AND ECONOMIC GROWTH -- TRENDS IN HUMAN ACTIVITIES AFFECTING GREENHOUSE GAS CONCENTRATIONS -- 3 The Greenhouse Gases and their Effects -- EARTH'S RADIATION BALANCE -- WHAT WE CAN LEARN FROM CLIMATE MODELS -- WHAT WE CAN LEARN FROM THE TEMPERATURE RECORD -- SEA LEVEL -- POSSIBLE DRAMATIC CHANGES -- CONCLUSIONS -- 4 Policy Framework -- COMPARING MITIGATION AND ADAPTATION -- ASSIGNING VALUES TO FUTURE OUTCOMES -- A METHOD FOR COMPARING OPTIONS -- Assessing Mitigation Options -- Assessing Adaptation Options -- OTHER FACTORS AFFECTING POLICY CHOICES ABOUT GREENHOUSE WARMING -- 5 Adaptation -- METHODS OF ADAPTATION -- THE ROLE OF INNOVATION -- ASSESSING IMPACTS AND ADAPTIVE CAPACITY -- CO2 Fertilization of Green Plants -- Agriculture -- Managed Forests and Grasslands -- Natural Landscape -- Marine and Coastal Environments -- Water Resources -- Industry and Energy -- Tourism and Recreation -- Settlements and Coastal Structures -- Human Health -- Migration -- Political Tranquility -- SOME IMPORTANT INDICES -- EVALUATING ADAPTATION OPTIONS -- ADAPTING TO CLIMATE CHANGE -- Activities with Low Sensitivity -- Activities that are Sensitive but can be Adapted at a Cost -- Activities that are Sensitive with Questionable Adjustment or Adaptation -- Cataclysmic Climatic Changes -- CONCLUSIONS -- 6 Mitigation -- THE ROLE OF COST-EFFECTIVENESS -- TECHNOLOGICAL COSTING VERSUS ENERGY MODELING -- PLANNING A COST-EFFECTIVE POLICY -- AN ASSESSMENT OF MITIGATION OPTIONS IN THE UNITED STATES -- COMPARING OPTIONS -- IMPLEMENTING MITIGATION OPTIONS -- CONCLUSIONS -- 7 International Considerations.

INTERNATIONAL ACTIVITIES -- FUTURE INTERNATIONAL AGREEMENTS -- OTHER ACTIONS -- 8 Findings and Conclusions -- POLICY CONSIDERATIONS -- Capacities of Industrialized and Developing Countries -- Taxes and Incentives -- Fundamental and Applied Research -- A PROPOSED FRAMEWORK FOR RESPONDING TO THE THREAT OF GREENHOUSE WARMING -- GENERAL CONCLUSIONS -- 9 Recommendations -- REDUCING OR OFFSETTING EMISSIONS OF GREENHOUSE GASES -- Halocarbon Emissions -- Energy Policy -- Forest Offsets -- ENHANCING ADAPTATION TO GREENHOUSE WARMING -- IMPROVING KNOWLEDGE FOR FUTURE DECISIONS -- EVALUATING GEOENGINEERING OPTIONS -- EXERCISING INTERNATIONAL LEADERSHIP -- Individual Statement by a Member of the Synthesis Panel -- Part Two The Science Base -- 10 Introduction -- NOTE -- References -- 11 Emission Rates and Concentrations of Greenhouse Gases -- CARBON DIOXIDE -- METHANE -- HALOCARBONS -- NITROUS OXIDE -- NOTES -- References -- 12 Radiative Forcing and Feedback -- THE HEAT BALANCE -- RADIATIVE FORCING -- RADIATIVE FEEDBACK MECHANISMS -- Water Vapor Feedback -- Snow-Ice Feedback -- Cloud Feedback -- References -- 13 Model Performance -- NOTE -- References -- 14 The Climate Record -- TEMPERATURE -- Uncertainties in the Record -- Spatial and Temporal Characteristics -- Changes in Extremes -- Temperatures Aloft -- PRECIPITATION -- IMPROVING OUR CLIMATE OBSERVATIONS -- References -- 15 Hydrology -- MECHANISMS INVOLVING LAND SURFACE HYDROLOGY -- Precipitation -- Soil Moisture -- The Biosphere -- IMPACT OF GREENHOUSE WARMING ON THE HYDROLIGIC CYCLE -- References -- 16 Sea Level -- CLIMATE-RELATED SEA LEVEL CHANGE -- EVIDENCE OF SEA LEVEL RISE OVER THE LAST 100 YEARS -- PROJECTING FUTURE SEA LEVEL RISE -- References -- 17 A Greenhouse Forcing and Temperature Rise Estimation Procedure -- RESULTS -- IMPLICATIONS -- References -- 18 Conclusions -- Part Three Mitigation.

19 Introduction -- SOURCES OF GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS -- STRUCTURE OF PART THREE -- NOTE -- References -- 20 A Framework for Evaluating Mitigation Options -- BACKGROUND -- THE ROLE OF COST-EFFECTIVENESS -- ENERGY MODELING -- The Nordhaus Study -- The Manne and Richels Study -- The Jorgenson and Wilcoxen Study -- The Edmonds and Reilly Study -- PROBLEMS IN COMPARING OPTIONS -- Structural Assumptions -- Market Imperfections and Regulatory Distortions -- Technological Costing Versus Energy Modeling -- Uncertainties in Energy Modeling -- Uncertainties in Technological Costing -- Comparisons over Time -- Rates of Return -- Growth and Uncertainty -- Generic Alternatives in a Least-Cost Strategy -- Timing of Mitigation Policy and Transient Effects -- Uncertainty and Choice of Parameters -- CONCLUSIONS -- NOTE -- References -- 21 Residential and Commercial Energy Management -- RECENT TRENDS -- EFFICIENCY POTENTIAL -- Recent Studies -- Calculating Efficiency Potential on Supply Curves -- Aggregate Annual Savings: 10 Billion to 37 Billion -- Transforming Electricity to Carbon -- ENERGY EFFICIENCY MEASURES -- White Surfaces and Vegetation -- Electrical Appliances -- Residential and Commercial Lighting -- Residential and Commercial Water Heating -- Cooking -- Commercial Cooling -- Household Appliances -- Office Equipment -- Building Shell Efficiency -- Potential Fossil Fuel Savings in Buildings: 20 Billion per Year -- Fuel Switching -- New Buildings -- Summary of Potential Savings in the Buildings Sector -- BARRIERS TO IMPLEMENTATION -- POLICY OPTIONS -- Direct Investment in Efficiency by Utilities -- Incentives in Practice -- National Demonstration Projects -- Appliance Efficiency Standards and Building Codes -- Government Subsidies and Tax Policy -- Direct Governmental Control -- Public Education -- International Implications -- OTHER BENEFITS AND COSTS.

RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT NEEDS -- CONCLUSIONS -- NOTES -- References -- 22 Industrial Energy Management -- RECENT TRENDS -- Effects of Structural Changes -- Effects of Efficiency Improvements -- EMISSION CONTROL METHODS -- Fuel and Energy Switching -- Energy Conservation Measures -- Electricity Savings -- Co-generation -- Other Conservation Measures -- Changes in Process Design -- Macroeconomic Structural Changes -- BARRIERS TO IMPLEMENTATION -- POLICY OPTIONS -- Fuel Taxes -- Efficiency Incentives -- Investment Tax Credits -- RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT NEEDS -- CONCLUSIONS -- NOTES -- References -- 23 Transportation Energy Management -- VEHICLE EFFICIENCY -- Recent Trends -- Emission Control Methods -- Technological Improvements in Light-Duty and Heavy-Duty Vehicles -- Technological Improvements in Aircraft -- Cost Estimates for Vehicles and Air Carriers -- Barriers to Implementation -- Policy Options -- Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) Standards -- Carbon or Gasoline Taxes -- Tax/Rebate Vehicle Packages -- ALTERNATIVE TRANSPORTATION FUELS -- Emission Control Methods -- Barriers to Implementation -- Policy Options -- TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM MANAGEMENT -- Recent Trends -- Emission Control Methods -- Barriers to Implementation -- Policy Options -- Pricing Strategies -- Parking and Transportation Demand Management -- High-Occupancy-Vehicle Lanes -- OTHER BENEFITS AND COSTS -- RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT NEEDS -- CONCLUSIONS -- NOTES -- References -- 24 Energy Supply Systems -- RECENT TRENDS -- EMISSION CONTROL METHODS -- Electricity Generation -- Coal -- Natural Gas -- Nuclear Energy -- Renewable Energy -- Integrated Energy Systems -- Two questions need to be addressed: -- Biomass -- Solar Hydrogen -- Fuel Cells -- Superconducting Cables -- Carbon Dioxide Collection and Disposal -- Cost-Effectiveness -- BARRIERS TO IMPLEMENTATION -- Regulatory.

Financial -- Infrastructural -- Perceptual -- POLICY OPTIONS -- OTHER BENEFITS AND COSTS -- RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT NEEDS -- Fossil Energy -- Nuclear Energy -- Conservation and Renewable Energy -- Fossil Fuel -- Nuclear Energy -- Conservation and Renewable Energy -- Biomass and Biofuels System -- CONCLUSIONS -- NOTES -- References -- 25 Nonenergy Emission Reduction -- HALOCARBONS -- Recent Trends -- Emission Control Methods -- Barriers to Implementation -- Policy Options -- Other Benefits and Costs -- Research and Development -- Conclusions -- AGRICULTURE -- Methane -- Recent Trends -- Emission Control Methods -- Barriers to Implementation -- Policy Options -- Nitrous Oxide -- Recent Trends -- Emission Control Options -- Barriers to Implementation -- Policy Options -- Research and Development -- Conclusions -- LANDFILL METHANE -- Recent Trends -- Emission Control Methods -- Barriers to Implementation -- Policy Options -- Other Benefits and Costs -- Research and Development -- Conclusions -- NOTE -- References -- 26 Population -- RECENT TRENDS -- POPULATION PROGRAMS AS AN EMISSION CONTROL METHOD -- BARRIERS TO IMPLEMENTATION -- POLICY OPTIONS -- OTHER BENEFITS AND COSTS -- RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT -- CONCLUSIONS -- References -- 27 Deforestation -- RECENT TRENDS -- EMISSION CONTROL METHODS -- BARRIERS TO IMPLEMENTATION -- POLICY OPTIONS -- OTHER BENEFITS AND COSTS -- RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT -- CONCLUSION -- NOTE -- References -- 28 Geoengineering -- REFORESTATION -- Recent Trends -- STORING CARBON IN TREES -- Obstacles to Implementation -- Policy Options -- Other Benefits and Costs -- Research and Development -- Conclusions -- INCREASING OCEAN ABSORPTION OF CARBON DIOXIDE -- The Approach -- Cost Estimates -- Some Problems -- SCREENING OUT SOME SUNLIGHT -- Estimating Screen Parameters -- Space Mirrors -- Space Dust -- Stratospheric Dust.

Mass Estimates.