TEACHER SUPPLY, DEMAND, AND QUALITY -- Copyright -- Contents -- Contributing Authors -- Acknowledgments -- I INTRODUCTION -- Introductory Remarks -- REFERENCE -- Conference Background -- The NCES Perspective -- Choosing Teachers and Choosing to Teach -- II SUMMARY -- Summary of Conference Proceedings -- INTRODUCTION -- OVERVIEW OF TEACHER SUPPLY, DEMAND, AND SHORTAGE -- Teacher Demand -- Teacher Supply -- Sources of Supply -- Teaching Force Composition -- Teaching Force Distribution -- Teacher Shortage Issues -- Quantity: A Nonproblem -- The Problem of Composition -- The Problem of Distribution -- Equilibrating Supply and Demand -- TEACHER QUALITY: A MAJOR POLICY ISSUE -- Dimensions of Quality -- Teacher Qualifications -- Tested Ability -- Demographic Matching of Teachers and Students -- Teacher Professionalism -- Classroom Teaching Practice -- Limits of Teacher Quality -- Teacher Quality: Information Needs and Suggestions for Action -- TSDQ PROJECTION MODELS -- Types of TSDQ Models -- Teacher Demand -- Teacher Retention and Attrition -- Entering Teachers -- Projection Models: Information Needs and Suggestions for Action -- TEACHER DATA BASES -- State Data Bases -- Regional Data Base -- National Data Bases -- Data Base Comparisons -- Data Bases: Suggestions for Action -- GENERAL SUGGESTIONS FOR ACTION -- REFERENCES -- NOTES -- III POLICY ISSUES -- The Problem of Improving Teacher Quality While Balancing Supply and Demand -- INTRODUCTION -- The Contemporary Version of Teacher Supply and Demand -- The Contemporary Version of High-Quality Classroom Practice -- POLICY EFFORTS TO IMPROVE THE SUPPLY OF QUALITY TEACHERS -- SUPPLY OF QUALITY CREDENTIALS -- How Important are Credentials? -- Policy Activity in This Area -- Implications for Data Collection -- SUPPLY OF TEACHERS WITH HIGH TESTED ABILITY -- How Important is Tested Ability?.

Policy Activity in this Area -- Implications for Data Collection -- SUPPLY OF DEMOGRAPHICALLY REPRESENTATIVE TEACHERS -- How Important is Demographic Representation? -- Policy Activity in this Area -- Implications for Data Collection -- SUPPLY AS A FUNCTION OF THE QUALITY OF PROFESSIONAL LIVES OF TEACHERS -- How Important is Quality of Professional Life? -- Policy Activity Promoting Quality Professional Life -- Implications for Data Collection -- SUPPLY OF HIGH-QUALITY CLASSROOM TEACHING PRACTICE -- How Important is the Quality of Classroom Teaching Practice? -- Policy Activity in this Area -- Implications for Data Collection -- SUMMARY -- REFERENCES -- NOTES -- Discussion -- DEMOGRAPHIC QUALITY -- PROFESSIONALISM DIMENSION -- CLASSROOM PRACTICE -- TEACHER QUALITY ISSUES AT THE FEDERAL LEVEL -- 101st Congress -- 102nd Congress -- FEDERAL DATA GATHERING -- REFERENCES -- NOTE -- Discussion -- REFERENCE -- General Discussion -- IV MODELS -- Models for Projecting Teacher Supply, Demand, and Quality: An Assessment of the State of the Art -- INTRODUCTION -- Teacher Supply-Demand Models and their Characteristics -- Purpose and Scope -- Organization -- MODELS OF THE DEMAND FOR TEACHERS -- Considerations in Modeling Demand -- The Definition of Demand -- The Relationship Between Demand and Employment -- Disaggregation by Field of Teaching -- The Demand for Teacher Quality -- National and State Demand Projection Models -- The Standard Demand Projection Model -- Variations on a Theme -- General Assessment of Projections Based on the Standard Model -- An NCES Venture into Econometric Modeling -- Model Description -- Assessment -- MODELS OF THE SUPPLY OF RETAINED TEACHERS -- Considerations in Modeling Attrition -- Defining and Measuring Attrition Rates -- Voluntary versus Involuntary Attrition -- Disaggregation by Subject Specialty.

Attrition Rates in Relation to Attributes of Teachers -- Variations in Attrition Rates Over Time -- The Quality of Retained Teachers -- National Projection Models and Attrition Estimates -- The NCES Projection Model -- Attrition Estimates from the Schools and Staffing Survey -- State Attrition Models -- Selected Simple Models -- More Advanced Models -- The MISER Multistate Model -- Assessment of National and State Models -- Research on Patterns and Determinants of Attrition -- Cross-Sectional Analyses -- Longitudinal Analyses of Entering Teacher Cohorts -- Assessment and Implications -- MODELS OF THE SUPPLY OF ENTERING TEACHERS AND THE SUPPLY-DEMAND BALANCE -- Considerations in Modeling the Supply of Entrants -- Definitions and Concepts of Supply -- Sources and Categories of Entrants -- Disaggregation by Subject Specialty -- The Quality Dimension of the Supply of Entrants -- State Projection Models -- Projections of Numbers of Certificated Teachers -- Projections of Entrants by Category -- The MISER Multistate Model -- Survey-Based Supply Projections: The Connecticut Approach -- Assessment of Projection Methods -- Research on the Supply of Entrants -- Prospects for National Projections of the Supply of Entrants -- The Former NCES Supply Projections -- Data from the NCES Schools and Staffing Survey -- Data from Longitudinal Surveys -- OVERVIEW: THE STATE OF THE ART AND PROSPECTS FOR IMPROVEMENT -- The State of the Art in General -- Projections of Demand -- Projections of the Supply of Retained Teachers -- Projections of the Supply of Entering Teachers -- REFERENCES -- NOTES -- Discussion -- REFERENCES -- Discussion -- General Discussion -- V DATA BASES -- State Data on Teacher Supply, Equity, and Qualifications -- BREADTH OF STATE DATA ON TEACHERS -- QUALITY AND TIMELINESS OF TEACHER DATA -- LINKED TEACHER DATA FROM STATES.

EXAMPLE OF USES OF STATE DATA FOR NATIONAL ANALYSES -- Indicators of Current Teacher Supply -- Proportion of Teachers with Primary and Secondary Assignments -- Age of Science and Mathematics Teachers -- Indicators of Equity in the Teaching Force -- Gender of Science and Mathematics Teachers -- Race/Ethnicity of Science and Mathematics Teachers -- Indicators of Teacher Qualifications in Subject Area -- School Conditions-Number of Teachers and Schools per State -- SUMMARY -- REFERENCES -- Developing a Regional Data Base on Educators in the Northeast: Problems, Products, and Prospects -- INTRODUCTION -- DATA COLLECTION AND DATA PROCESSING -- UTILITY OF ADMINISTRATIVE DATA FOR EDUCATOR SUPPLY, DEMAND, AND QUALITY MODELS -- PROSPECTS FOR THE NORTHEAST REGIONAL DATA BASE -- REFERENCES -- NOTES -- Overview and Discussion of National Data Bases Relevant to Teacher Supply, Demand, and Quality -- REFERENCES -- Who Will Teach? -- WHO PREPARES TO TEACH -- Trends in the Number of New Teaching Licenses -- The Trend in the Racial Composition of the Pool of Licensees -- The Trend in the Distribution of Teaching Fields -- WHO ENTERS TEACHING -- HOW LONG TEACHERS STAY IN TEACHING -- Career Lengths Vary by Subject Specialty -- Salaries Affect the Likelihood of Attrition for Novice Teachers -- WHO RETURNS TO TEACHING -- Many Teachers Return -- The Probability of a Return to Teaching Varies by Subject Specialty -- SUMMARY -- NOTES -- Discussion: Teacher Supply and Demand Research With State Data Bases -- ISSUES FOR FURTHER RESEARCH -- Supply and Demand for Math and Science Teachers -- Minority Teachers -- Teacher Early Retirement and Teacher Demand -- The Declining Reserve Pool -- Supply and Attrition of High-Quality Teachers -- FUTURE RESEARCH DIRECTIONS -- REFERENCES -- General Discussion -- NOTE -- VI CONCLUSION -- Directions for the Future -- APPENDIXES.

A Conference Agenda and Attendees -- TEACHER SUPPLY, DEMAND, AND QUALITY CONFERENCE ON POLICY ISSUES, MODELS, AND DATA BASES -- B National Data Bases Related to Teacher Supply, Demand, and Quality -- THE AMERICAN FRESHMAN -- ASSOCIATION OF AMERICAN COLLEGES CURRICULUM DATABASE -- COMMON CORE OF DATA -- CURRENT POPULATION SURVEY -- GRADUATE RECORD EXAMINATION -- HIGH SCHOOL AND BEYOND -- INTEGRATED POSTSECONDARY EDUCATION DATA SYSTEM -- LONGITUDINAL STUDY OF AMERICAN YOUTH -- NATIONAL ASSESSMENT OF EDUCATIONAL PROGRESS -- NAEP Teacher Questionnaire -- NATIONAL EDUCATION LONGITUDINAL STUDY OF 1988 -- THE NATIONAL LONGITUDINAL STUDY -- NATIONAL SURVEYS OF SCIENCE AND MATHEMATICS EDUCATION -- THE PRIVATE SCHOOL SURVEY -- SCHOOLS AND STAFFING SURVEY AND TEACHER FOLLOW-UP SURVEY -- Schools and Staffing Survey -- Teacher Follow-up Survey -- STATUS OF THE AMERICAN PUBLIC SCHOOL TEACHER -- SURVEYS OF RECENT COLLEGE GRADUATES -- C Teacher Supply, Demand, and Quality Variables: National Data Base Sources -- Data Sources Reported in Tables 1 through 5.