DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA -- Copyright -- Preface -- Contents -- 1 Introduction -- REFERENCES -- 2 Fertility Levels, Differentials, and Trends -- INTRODUCTION -- SOURCES AND QUALITY OF DEMOGRAPHIC DATA IN AFRICA -- METHODS FOR ESTIMATING TOTAL FERTILITY RATES -- CHARACTERISTICS OF AFRICAN FERTILITY -- Estimates of Total Fertility Rates -- Shape of the Fertility Distribution -- First Births -- Timing of Subsequent Births -- Socioeconomic Differentials in Achieved Family Size -- Place of Residence -- Level of Education -- RECENT EVIDENCE OF A FERTILITY DECLINE IN COUNTRIES PARTICIPATING IN THE DHS -- Group A: Countries in Which Fertility Declines Have Occurred -- Group B: Countries in Which Fertility May be Declining -- COMPARISON OF RECENT FERTILITY TRENDS IN AFRICA AND OTHER DEVELOPING REGIONS -- CONCLUSIONS -- REFERENCES -- 3 The Proximate Determinants of Fertility -- INTRODUCTION -- DATA -- FRAMEWORK -- Marriage or Union Patterns -- Contraception -- Postpartum Infecundability -- Pathological or Primary Sterility -- Summary of Model -- EMPIRICAL RESULTS -- National-Level Results for DHS Countries -- Marriage -- Contraception -- Postpartum Infecundability -- Pathological Sterility -- Interpreting the Results -- Summary -- Differentials for DHS Countries -- Age -- Residence -- Education -- Change Over Time: Comparison of WFS and DHS Results -- Kenya -- Senegal -- Sudan -- Ghana -- CONCLUSION -- TECHNICAL NOTES -- Data Sources -- Derivation of Indices -- Index of Marriage -- Measured Births Outside Marriage and Adjusted Index of Marriage -- Index of Contraception -- Index of Postpartum Infecundability -- Index of Sterility -- Effects of Indices -- APPENDIX -- REFERENCES -- 4 Recent Trends in Marriage Ages -- INTRODUCTION -- CONCEPTUAL AND MEASUREMENT ISSUES -- Definitions -- Problems of Recall and of Age Reporting -- Measurement.

ASCERTAINING TIME TRENDS IN AGE AT MARRIAGE -- Retrospective Evidence from Surveys -- Evidence from Current Status Data -- AGE AT MARRIAGE AND FERTILITY -- Evidence from Retrospective Reports -- Proportions Ever Married and Children Ever Born -- Changes in Proportions Married and Children Ever Born -- CONCLUSION -- APPENDIX: MEDIAN AND MEAN AGE AT FIRST MARRIAGE -- REFERENCES -- 5 Trends in Childhood Mortality -- INTRODUCTION -- DATA DEVELOPMENTS SINCE 1987 -- NEW COUNTRY DATA AND RESULTS -- Botswana and Zimbabwe -- Middle and Eastern Africa -- Sudan -- Western Africa -- Senegal, Mali, Burkina Faso, and The Gambia -- Togo, Ghana, and Côte d'Ivoire -- Liberia -- Nigeria -- OVERVIEW OF TRENDS IN COUNTRIES WITH NEW DATA -- CONCLUSIONS ON CHILDHOOD MORTALITY TRENDS -- APPENDIX A: SUMMARIZATION PROCESS FOR TABLE 5-2: COUNTRY NOTES -- General Note on Methodology -- Country Analyses -- Botswana and Zimbabwe -- Middle and Eastern Africa -- Sudan -- Western Africa -- APPENDIX B -- REFERENCES -- 6 Adult Mortality -- INTRODUCTION -- SOURCES OF DATA -- METHODS OF ANALYSIS -- ADULT MORTALITY LEVELS -- Gender Differentials -- Age Patterns of Mortality -- Trends in Female Mortality -- Socioeconomic and Areal Differentials -- CAUSES OF DEATH -- CONCLUSIONS -- APPENDIX -- REFERENCES -- 7 Internal Migration, Urbanization, and Population Distribution -- INTRODUCTION -- INTERNAL MIGRATION -- Conceptual Issues and the State of the Art -- Data and Data Collection Methods -- Spatial Patterns -- Rural-Rural Migration -- Rural-Urban Migration -- Urban-Rural and Interurban Migration -- Return Migration -- Migration Selectivity and Differentials -- Age Selectivity -- Sex Differentials -- Educational Differentials -- Occupational Characteristics -- Determinants of Migration -- External Factors -- Government Policies and Programs -- Community-Level Variables.

Household Decisions and Considerations -- Environmental and Resource Factors -- URBANIZATION -- Conceptual and Measurement Issues -- Urbanization Levels and Trends -- Urban Population Size -- Rate of Urban Growth -- Proportion of Urban Population -- Components of Urban Population Growth -- Demographic Components -- POPULATION DISTRIBUTION AND DENSITY -- Conceptual and Measurement Issues -- Population Density -- Population Redistribution -- CONCLUSION -- REFERENCES -- 8 International Migration -- INTRODUCTION -- DATA SOURCES -- REGIONAL PATTERNS -- Western Africa -- Middle Africa -- Eastern Africa -- Southern Africa -- MIGRATION OF THE HIGHLY SKILLED AND EMIGRATION FROM THE CONTINENT -- EFFECTS OF INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION ON AGE AND SEX DISTRIBUTIONS -- Lesotho -- Mauritania -- Malawi -- Congo -- CONCLUSION -- REFERENCES -- 9 Models of the Demographic Effect of AIDS -- INTRODUCTION -- EPIDEMIOLOGY OF AIDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA -- PURPOSES AND TYPES OF HIV/AIDS MODELS: GENERAL CONSIDERATIONS -- EXISTING HIV/AIDS MODELS -- Statistical Extrapolation and Back-Calculation Models -- Epidemic Models -- Demographic/Behavioral Models -- Demographic Models -- Sexual Behavior Simulation Models -- Analytic Models -- Model Results -- UN/GPA Workshop Results -- Input Values -- Results -- Other Model Results -- Model Uncertainties -- Heterogeneity with Regard to Sexual and IV Drug Behavior -- Communicability of Groups with Regard to Sexual and IV Drug Behavior -- Probability of Transmission by Sexual Contact -- Cofactors -- Distribution of the Incubation Period -- Duration-Dependent Infectivity -- SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS -- REFERENCES.