IMPROVING RISK COMMUNICATION -- Copyright -- Preface -- Acknowledgments -- Contents -- Summary -- A NEW PERSPECTIVE -- COMMON MISCONCEPTIONS ABOUT RISK COMMUNICATION -- PROBLEMS OF RISK COMMUNICATION -- Problems Deriving from the Institutional and Political Systems -- Problems of Risk Communicators and Recipients -- CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS -- Management of the Process -- Setting Realistic Goals -- Safeguarding Openness -- Safeguarding Balance and Accuracy in Risk Messages -- Fostering Competence -- Risk Communication in Crisis Conditions -- Content of Risk Messages -- Relating the Message to the Audiences' Perspectives -- Handling Uncertainty -- Comparing Risks -- Ensuring Completeness -- A Consumer's Guide to Risk and Risk Communication -- Research Needs -- 1 Introduction -- THE NEW INTEREST IN "RISK COMMUNICATION" -- Requirement for or Desire by Government to Inform -- Desire to Overcome Opposition to Decisions -- Desire to Share Power Between Government and Public Groups -- Desire to Develop Effective Alternatives to Direct Regulatory Control -- A NEW DEFINITION OF RISK COMMUNICATION -- RISK MESSAGES AS PART OF THE RISK COMMUNICATION PROCESS -- SUCCESSFUL RISK COMMUNICATION -- NOTES -- 2 Understanding Hazards and Risks -- TOWARD QUANTIFICATION OF HAZARDS -- KNOWLEDGE NEEDED FOR RISK DECISIONS -- Information About the Nature of Risks and Benefits -- Information on Alternatives -- Uncertainties in Knowledge About Risks and Benefits -- Information on Management -- Other Relevant Knowledge -- Summary -- GAPS AND UNCERTAINTIES IN KNOWLEDGE -- Identification of Hazards -- Estimation of Exposure -- Estimation of the Probability of Harm -- Identification of Synergistic Effects -- Summary -- SCIENTIFIC JUDGMENT AND ERRORS IN JUDGMENT -- Inappropriate Reliance on Limited Data -- Tendency to Impose Order on Random Events.

Tendency to Fit Ambiguous Evidence into Predispositions -- Tendency to Systematically Omit Components of Risk -- Overconfidence in the Reliability of Analyses -- Summary -- INFLUENCES OF HUMAN VALUES ON KNOWLEDGE ABOUT RISK -- Choices of Numerical Measures for Risk -- Values and the Attributes of Hazards -- IMPLICATIONS FOR RISK COMMUNICATION -- NOTES -- 3 Conflict About Hazards and Risks -- IS RISK INCREASING OR DECREASING? -- It Is the Safest of Times -- It Is the Riskiest of Times -- Understanding the Conflict -- CHANGES IN THE NATURE OF HAZARDS AND IN KNOWLEDGE ABOUT THEM -- Increased Understanding of Human Influence on Hazards -- Worsening Worst Cases -- Unintended Side Effects -- Changing Portfolio of Hazards -- CHANGES IN U.S. SOCIETY -- Increasing Affluence -- Increasing Dependence of the Economy on Technology -- Distrust of Institutions -- The Environmental Movement -- New Public Institutions -- POLITICIZATION OF THE TECHNOLOGICAL DEBATE -- Concepts of Regulation -- Tort Law -- Regulatory Procedures -- Politically Potent Symbolic Events -- Increased Focus on Science in Technological Debates -- Institutionalization of Scientific Conflict -- IMPLICATIONS OF CONFLICT FOR COMMUNICATION -- Differential Knowledge -- Vested Interests -- Value Differences -- Mistrust of Expert Knowledge as Interest Serving -- Note for Risk Message Designers -- NOTES -- 4 Purposes of Risk Communication and Risk Messages -- SETTINGS OF RISK COMMUNICATION -- Public Debate -- Personal Action -- INFORMATION AND INFLUENCE: THE PURPOSES OF RISK MESSAGES -- Information -- Influence -- Highlighting Facts -- "Framing" Information and Decisions -- Risk Comparisons -- Persuasive Use of Facts -- Appeals to Authority -- Appeals to Emotion -- USE OF INFLUENCE TECHNIQUES IN RISK COMMUNICATION -- Achieving Balance -- Achieving Influence -- Influence and Personal Action.

Influence and Public Debate -- NOTES -- 5 Common Misconceptions About Risk Communication -- EXPECTATIONS REGARDING RISK COMMUNICATION -- Communication, Conflict, and Management -- Comparing Risks -- BELIEFS ABOUT THE FUNCTIONING OF THE PROCESS -- Adequacy of the Scientific Information Base -- Agreement as to the Meaning of Existing Information -- Interpretation of Public Attitudes and Information Needs -- STEREOTYPES ABOUT INTERMEDIARIES AND RECIPIENTS -- Journalists and the News Media -- The Attraction of Decisive Answers -- NOTE -- 6 Problems of Risk Communication -- PROBLEMS DERIVING FROM THE INSTITUTIONAL AND POLITICAL SYSTEM -- Legal Considerations -- Statutory Prescriptions and Proscriptions -- Liability -- Informed Consent and Right-to-Know -- Sharing of Power -- Fragmentation -- Dispersion of Responsibility -- Incentives to Gain Leverage -- Difficulty in Determining Responsibility for Outcomes -- Imbalanced Access to Information -- Systematic Interests and Biases -- PROBLEMS OF RISK COMMUNICATORS AND RECIPIENTS -- Establishing and Recognizing Credibility -- Real or Perceived Advocacy of Unjustified Positions -- Reputation for Deceit, Misrepresentation, or Coercion -- Contradiction of Previous Positions -- Self-Serving Framing of Messages -- Contradictory Messages from Other Sources -- Professional Incompetence and Impropriety -- Legal Standing -- Justification of Communication Campaigns -- Access of Affected Parties to the Decision-Making Process -- Fair Review of Conflicting Claims -- Making Messages Understandable -- Unfamiliar Language -- Unfamiliar Magnitudes -- Insensitivity to Psychological Needs of the Recipient -- Preparing Messages with Few Data and No Time -- Responding in an Emergency -- Communicating on the Basis of Incomplete Information -- Capturing and Focusing Attention -- Stimulating Recipient Interest.

Interacting with the News Media and Other Intermediaries -- Getting Information -- Authorities Who Do Not Listen or Respond -- Difficulties in Finding Trusted Sources of Information -- SUMMARY -- NOTE -- 7 Recommendations for Improving Risk Communication -- MANAGEMENT OF THE PROCESS -- Setting Realistic Goals -- Safeguarding Openness -- Effective Dialogue -- Early and Sustained Interaction -- The Empowerment Problem -- Safeguarding Balance and Accuracy in Risk Messages- Preventing Real and Perceived Distortion -- Accountability -- Independent Review -- Message Preview -- Written Document -- Fostering Competence-Making Risk Communication Smarter -- Assessment of Audience -- Specialized Talent -- Scientific/Technical Accuracy and Completeness -- Evaluation and Feedback -- Role of Intermediaries -- Some Notes on Handling Risk Communication in Crisis Conditions -- THE CONTENT OF RISK MESSAGES -- Relating the Message to the Audiences' Perspectives -- Personal Relevance -- Clarity -- Respect for the Audience and Its Concerns -- Use of "Influence Strategies" -- Handling Uncertainty -- Comparing Risks -- Ensuring Completeness -- A CONSUMER'S GUIDE TO RISK AND RISK COMMUNICATION -- Project Support -- Project Management -- Content of the Guide -- RESEARCH NEEDS -- Risk Comparison -- Risk Characterization -- Role of Message Intermediaries -- Pertinency and Sufficiency of Risk Information -- Psychological Stress -- Recipients' "Mental Models" -- Risk Literacy -- Retrospective Cases -- Contemporaneous Assessments of Risk Cases -- Appendixes -- Appendix A Background Information on Committee Members and Professional Staff -- COMMITTEE MEMBERS -- PROFESSIONAL STAFF -- Appendix B Bibliography -- Appendix C Risk: A Guide to Controversy -- FOREWORD BY THE COMMITTEE -- PREFACE -- CONTENTS -- I INTRODUCTION -- USAGE -- SOME CAUTIONS -- II THE SCIENCE.

WHAT ARE THE BOUNDS OF THE PROBLEM? -- The Causal Model -- The Fault Tree -- Materials and Energy Flow Diagrams -- A Risk Analysis Checklist -- WHAT IS THE HARD SCIENCE RELATED TO THE PROBLEM? -- Judgments of Risk -- Judgments of Values -- Refining Common Sense -- Informing People About Risks -- Risk-Taking Propensity -- Protective Behavior -- ADHERENCE TO ESSENTIAL RULES OF SCIENCE -- HOW DOES JUDGMENT AFFECT THE RISK ESTIMATION PROCESS? -- Acknowledging the Role of Judgment -- Diagnosing the Role of Judgment -- Assessing the Quality of the Judgment -- How Good Are Expert Judgments? -- Sensitivity to Sample Size -- Hindsight -- Judging Probabilistic Processes -- Judging the Quality of Evidence -- SUMMARY -- III SCIENCE AND POLICY -- SEPARATING FACTS AND VALUES -- Values Shape Facts -- Facts Shape Values -- MEASURING RISK -- Which Hazards Are Being Considered? -- Definition of Risk -- Dimensionality of Risk -- Summary Statistics -- Bounding the Technology -- Concern -- MEASURING BENEFITS -- Definition of Benefit -- Expressed Preferences -- Revealed Preferences -- SUMMARY -- IV THE NATURE OF THE CONTROVERSY -- THE DISTINCTION BETWEEN "ACTUAL" AND "PERCEIVED" RISKS IS MISCONCEIVED -- LAYPEOPLE AND EXPERTS ARE SPEAKING DIFFERENT LANGUAGES -- LAYPEOPLE AND EXPERTS ARE SOLVING DIFFERENT PROBLEMS -- DEBATES OVER SUBSTANCE MAY DISGUISE BATTLES OVER FORM, AND VICE VERSA -- LAYPEOPLE AND EXPERTS DISAGREE ABOUT WHAT IS FEASIBLE -- LAYPEOPLE AND EXPERTS SEE THE FACTS DIFFERENTLY -- SUMMARY -- V STRATEGIES FOR RISK COMMUNICATION -- CONCEPTS OF RISK COMMUNICATION -- SOME SIMPLE STRATEGIES -- Give the Public the Facts -- Sell the Public the Facts -- Give the Public More of What It Has Gotten in the Past -- Give the Public Clear-Cut, Noncontroversial Statements of Regulatory Philosophy -- Let the Marketplace Decide -- Put Risk Managers on the Firing Line.

Involve Local Communities in Resolving Their Own Risk Management Problems.