Undiscovered Oil and Gas Resources: -- Copyright -- Contents -- Executive Summary -- QUESTIONS ABOUT THE DOI'S 1989 RESOURCE ASSESSMENT -- LIMITATIONS OF RESOURCE ASSESSMENTS -- AN EVALUATION OF THE DOI'S 1989 RESOURCE ASSESSMENT -- The Committee's Findings -- Improper play definition -- Insufficient consideration of conceptual plays -- Inadequate consideration of probabilistic dependence -- Imposition of economic constraints on recoverable resource calculations -- Other Opportunities to Improve Future Assessments -- RECOMMENDATIONS -- Assessment Boundaries -- USGS and MMS Management -- Geological Approaches in Data Base Use and Play Analysis -- Statistical Methods -- Assessment Results -- 1 Introduction: Questions About the Department of the Interior's 1989 Resource Assessment -- WHY RESOURCE ASSESSMENTS VARY -- NEW ASSESSMENT METHODS -- REFERENCES -- 2 Limitations of Resource Assessments -- ASSESSMENT OBJECTIVES -- UNCERTAINTY IN ASSESSMENTS -- ASSESSMENT BOUNDARIES -- Discovered/Undiscovered Boundary -- Conventional/Unconventional Boundary -- Recoverable/Unrecoverable Boundary -- Technically Recoverable Resources -- Economically Recoverable Resources -- DATA BASES FOR RESOURCE ASSESSMENTS -- Geologic Data Base -- Production and Drilling Data Base -- ESTIMATING RESERVE GROWTH -- ASSESSMENT METHODOLOGY -- The Evolution of Government Assessments -- Subjective Probability Methods -- Discovery-Process Models -- Methods for Considering Economics -- RESOURCE ASSESSMENTS AND ENERGY POLICY -- REFERENCES -- 3 An Evaluation of the Department of the Interior's 1989 Resource Assessment -- ASSESSMENT BOUNDARIES -- Conventional/Unconventional Boundary -- In-Place Resources: Recoverable/Unrecoverable Boundary -- Economic Boundaries -- USGS Economic Boundaries -- MMS Economic Boundaries -- Inferred Reserves and Reserve Growth.

DETAILED EVALUATION USGS ASSESSMENT METHODS -- Organization and Staff -- Data Base -- Sources -- Association of American State Geologists' Review of USGS Data -- Data Auditing -- Play Analysis -- Background -- Sources of Information About Plays -- The USGS's Application of Play Analysis -- Quantification of Expert Judgment and Statistical Methods -- Background: The Appraisal Form -- Geologic Risk Factors -- Sizes of Undiscovered Fields in a Play -- Number of Undiscovered Fields in a Play -- Aggregation Within a Play -- Aggregation of Plays Within a Province -- Regional and National Aggregates -- Subjective Probability Assessment and Training -- Case Study: Alaska -- Data Base -- Play Methodology -- Technically Recoverable Resources Computation -- Economic Assumptions: Minimum Economic Field Size -- Uncertainty -- DETAILED EVALUATION OF MMS ASSESSMENT METHODS -- Organization and Staff -- Data Base -- Play Analysis -- Play Definition: Potential for Play Mixing -- Conceptual Plays -- Analytical Techniques -- Alaska Assessment Forms -- Probabilistic Dependence -- Assumptions -- Economic Input -- Uncertainties -- Statistical Methods -- Number of Undiscovered Fields -- Sizes of Undiscovered Fields -- Geologic Risk Factors -- Aggregation -- REFERENCES -- 4 Recommendations -- ASSESSMENT BOUNDARIES -- USGS AND MMS MANAGEMENT -- GEOLOGICAL APPROACHES IN DATA BASE USE AND PLAY ANALYSIS -- Geological Data Bases -- Play Formulation and Analysis -- STATISTICAL METHODS -- ASSESSMENT RESULTS -- Appendixes -- Appendix A Evaluation of the Hydrocarbon Resource Estimates for the Offshore Areas of Northern and ... -- Contents -- Executive Summary -- Introduction -- Northern and Southern California Outer Continental Shelf Areas -- Evaluation of Methodology -- Conclusions -- South Florida Basin Outer Continental Shelf, South of 260° Latitude -- Evaluations of Methodology.

Geology/Geophysics Data Base -- Resource Assessment Procedures -- Conclusions -- Appendix B Adequacy of the Data Base for Hydrocarbon Estimates of the Georges Bank Area of the Nort ... -- Preface -- Contents -- Executive Summary -- 1 Introduction -- Location -- Geologic History -- 2 Geological and Geophysical Data Base -- 3 Petroleum Geology -- 4 Petroleum Resource Assessment of the Georges Bank -- 5 Conclusions -- 6 Recommendations -- Data Needs -- Reconsideration of the Resource Evaluation -- References -- Appendix C The Effects of Play Mixing in the Permian Basin -- Play 5 -- Analysis of Clusters 361 and 363 -- Play 6 -- Analysis of Cluster 375 and the Combination of Clusters 369 and 371 -- Analysis of Clusters 373 and 375 and the Combination of the Two -- Reference -- Appendix D Background: Components of the Petroleum Resource Base -- In-Place Resources -- Cumulative Production -- Proved Reserves -- Indicated and Inferred Reserves -- Undiscovered Resources -- The Division of Resources into Conventional and Unconventional Categories -- Conventional Resources -- Unconventional Resources -- Resources in Relation to Production.