Improving Information for Social Policy Decisions -- Copyright -- Contents -- Acknowledgments -- Summary -- IMPROVING THE TOOLS OF POLICY ANALYSIS: INVESTMENT PRIORITIES -- Validation -- Better Data -- THE ROLE OF MICROSIMULATION AS A POLICY ANALYSIS TOOL -- Databases -- Model Design and Development -- Computing Technology -- Validation -- Documentation and Archiving -- The Structure of the Community -- The Use of Microsimulation for Basic Research -- RECOMMENDATIONS FOR IMPROVING POLICY ANALYSIS -- Data -- Validation -- RECOMMENDATIONS FOR MICROSIMULATION MODELS -- Databases -- Model Design and Development -- Computing Technology -- Health Care and Retirement Policy Modeling -- Validation -- Documentation and Archiving -- Structure of the Microsimulation Modeling Community -- 1 Introduction -- A SCENE IN WASHINGTON, D.C. -- THE TOOLS OF POLICY ANALYSIS -- THE PANEL STUDY -- Part I Information for Social Welfare Policy: Toward A Second Revolution -- 2 The Search for Useful Information -- THE FIRST INFORMATION REVOLUTION -- POLICY ANALYSIS: BETWEEN SOCIAL SCIENCE RESEARCH AND POLITICS -- A CASE STUDY OF POLICY ANALYSIS: THE FAMILY SUPPORT ACT OF 1988 -- Provisions That Could Be Estimated With Microsimulation Models -- Provisions That Could Not Be Estimated With Microsimulation Models -- Problems in the Estimation Process -- 3 Improving the Tools and Uses of Policy Analysis -- A STRATEGY FOR INVESTMENT -- DATA QUALITY AND AVAILABILITY -- Investment in Data Production -- Coordination of Data Production -- Broadened Data Collection -- Linking Survey and Administrative Data -- Adding Value to Existing Data -- VALIDATION -- The Difficulty of Validation -- Kinds of Model Validation -- External Validation -- Internal Validation -- Investment in Model Validation -- DOCUMENTATION AND COMMUNICATION OF THE RESULTS OF POLICY ANALYSIS.

Documentation and Archiving as Aids to Validation -- Communicating Validation Results to Decision Makers -- Appendix Models, Uncertainty, and Confidence Intervals -- MODELS -- UNCERTAINTY OF AN ESTIMATE -- CONDITIONAL VERSUS UNCONDITIONAL CONFIDENCE INTERVALS -- AN ILLUSTRATIVE DIAGRAM -- Part II The Role of Microsimulation as a Policy Analysis Tool -- 4 Microsimulation Models: Then and Now -- BASIC ELEMENTS OF MICROSIMULATION MODELS -- DEVELOPMENT OF MICROSIMULATION MODELING FOR POLICY ANALYSIS -- Origins: 1950s to mid-1960s -- Development of Static Models: Late 1960s to Early 1980s -- Development of Dynamic Models: 1970s to Early 1980s -- Retreats and Advances: The 1980s -- ROLE AND CURRENT STATUS OF MICROSIMULATION: FINDINGS -- Overall Value -- A Range of Policy Analysis Tools -- Analytical Costs -- Model Uncertainty -- Data Adequacy -- Research Knowledge -- Computer Technologies -- Microsimulation Modeling Community -- Future Directions -- 5 Databases for Microsimulation -- DATA QUALITY: THE MARCH CPS -- Survey-Based Problems -- Coverage -- Response Rates -- Sampling Error -- Missing Detail -- Data Omissions -- STRATEGIES FOR TREATING MISSING AND ERRONEOUS DATA -- Disaggregation -- Imputation for Item Nonresponse -- Imputation for Items Not Collected -- Exact Matches -- Statistical Matches -- Adjustment to Outside Control Totals -- THE PROMISE OF SIPP -- RECOMMENDATIONS FOR IMPROVING DATA QUALITY -- Evaluating the Quality of Existing Data Sources -- Survey Data -- Administrative Data -- Improving Databases for the Near and Long Term -- Near-Term Approaches -- Long-Term Approaches -- Expanding the Census Bureau's Role -- 6 Model Design and Development -- MODEL DESIGN PRINCIPLES AND PRACTICES -- Design Principles -- Clear Analytic Goals -- Self-Contained Modules -- Facilitated Documentation and Evaluation -- Linkages -- Computational Efficiency.

Accessibility to Users -- Practices -- CURRENT MICROSIMULATION MODEL DESIGN -- STRATEGIC DIRECTIONS FOR MICROSIMULATION MODEL DEVELOPMENT -- Data Aging -- Existing Aging Techniques -- Issues and Trade-Offs -- Incorporation of Behavioral Response -- Behavioral Responses in Current Models -- Issues and Trade-Offs -- INCORPORATION OF SECOND-ROUND EFFECTS -- Existing Models of Second-Round Effects -- Issues and Trade-Offs -- 7 Computing Technology and Microsimulation -- THE EVOLUTION OF MICROSIMULATION COMPUTING PLATFORMS -- DYNASIM2 -- TRIM2 -- NEW DEVELOPMENTS IN COMPUTING TECHNOLOGY -- Alternative Computing Platforms: SPSD/M Versus TRIM2 -- New Computing Capabilities Versus Microsimulation Requirements -- FUTURE DIRECTIONS FOR COMPUTING IN MICROSIMULATION -- 8 Microsimulation Modeling of Health Care, Retirement Income, and Tax Policies -- HEALTH CARE POLICIES -- Microsimulation Modeling for Health Care Policy -- Issues in Modeling Health Care Policy Alternatives -- Research Knowledge -- Databases -- Suggestions and Recommendations -- Model Development -- Data -- Research -- RETIREMENT INCOME POLICIES -- Microsimulation Modeling for Retirement Policy -- Suggestions and Recommendations -- Linked Data -- Behavioral Research -- TAX POLICIES -- Microsimulation Modeling for Tax Policies -- Developing a Tax Model Database: The Case of OTA -- Issues in Modeling Tax Policies -- 9 Validation -- CORROBORATION AS A STAND-IN FOR VALIDATION -- TECHNIQUES OF MODEL VALIDATION -- External Validation -- Sensitivity Analysis -- Variance Estimation -- Loss Functions -- REVIEW OF VALIDATION STUDIES -- Doyle and Trippe -- Haveman and Lacker -- Kormendi and Meguire -- A VALIDATION STUDY OF TRIM2: THE PANEL'S EXPERIMENT -- Description -- Results -- Limitations of the Experiment -- Major Conclusions -- STRATEGIES FOR VALIDATING MICROSIMULATION MODELS: RECOMMENDATIONS.

Institutional Arrangements for Model Validation -- Research on Model Validation Methods -- Quality Profiles -- 10 Documentation and Archiving -- STANDARDS FOR MODEL DOCUMENTATION -- A DOCUMENTATION CASE STUDY -- RECOMMENDATIONS -- 11 The Microsimulation Modeling Community -- RELATIONSHIPS AMONG FEDERAL AGENCIES -- Policy Analysis Agencies -- Statistical and Policy Analysis Agencies -- POLICY ANALYSIS AGENCIES AND THEIR SUPPLIERS -- POLICY ANALYSIS AGENCIES AND DECISION MAKERS' STAFFS -- THE ROLE OF RESEARCH -- Contributions of Research to Policy Analysis -- The Promise of Microsimulation for Social Science Research -- Appendix Microsimulation Models, Databases, and Modeling Terms -- MODELS -- DYNASIM2 (Dynamic Simulation of Income Model 2) -- HITSM (Household Income and Tax Simulation Model) -- MATH (Micro Analysis of Transfers to Households) -- MRPIS (Multi-Regional Policy Impact Simulation) -- PRISM (Pension and Retirement Income Simulation Model) -- Long-Term Care Financing Model (Submodel of PRISM) -- Treasury Individual Income Tax Simulation Model (OTA Model) -- TRIM2 (Transfer Income Model 2) -- DATABASES -- MODELING TERMS -- Glossary of Acronyms -- References -- Biographical Sketches of Panel Members and Staff -- Index.