Evaluating Vehicle Emissions Inspection and Maintenance Programs -- Copyright -- OTHER REPORTS OF THE BOARD ON ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES AND TOXICOLOGY -- ACKNOWLEDGMENT OF REVIEW PARTICIPANTS -- Preface -- Contents -- Evaluating Vehicle Emissions Inspection and Maintenance Programs -- Summary -- FINDINGS AND RECOMMENDATIONS -- Prospective Estimates of Emissions Reductions from I/M Programs -- Findings -- Recommendations -- High-Emitting Vehicles -- Findings -- Recommendations -- Evaluating I/M Emissions Reductions -- Findings -- Recommendations -- Research Issues in I/M Evaluation -- Findings -- Recommendations -- NO and Participate Matter (PM) Emissions -- Findings -- Recommendations -- Remote Sensing -- Findings -- Recommendations -- On-Board Diagnostics -- Findings -- Recommendations -- Use of the MOBILE Model -- Findings -- Recommendations -- Importance of Cost-Effectiveness and Public Response to I/M -- Findings -- Recommendations -- 1 Motor Vehicle Emissions and Regulation -- THE COMMITTEE'S CHARGE AND HOW IT ORIGINATED -- COMMITTEE'S RESPONSE TO THE CHARGE-REPORT CONTENTS -- AIR POLLUTANTS EMITTED BY MOBILE SOURCES -- VEHICLE TYPES AND STANDARDS -- Vehicle Types -- Vehicle Exhaust Emissions Standards -- Vehicle Evaporative Emissions Standards -- DISTRIBUTION OF VEHICLE EMISSIONS -- OVERVIEW OF VEHICLE I/M PROGRAMS -- EVOLVING ISSUES AFFECTING I/M IN THE FUTURE -- SUMMARY -- 2 Vehicle Emissions-Control Technologies -- OVERVIEW -- ENGINE CONTROLS -- Crankcase Emissions Controls -- Combustion Emissions Controls -- Exhaust After-Treatment -- EVAPORATIVE CONTROLS -- OBD SYSTEMS -- SUMMARY -- 3 Vehicle Inspection and Maintenance Programs -- I/M PROGRAM NETWORK TYPES -- Centralized Network -- Decentralized Network -- Hybrid Program -- VEHICLE-EMISSIONS TESTING -- Mass Emissions versus Concentration Measurements.

Steady-State Versus Transient Testing -- Exhaust Emissions Test Types -- Mass Emissions Tests -- Concentration Tests -- Comparison of Exhaust Emissions-Test Types -- Evaporative Emissions Tests -- OTHER PROGRAM ELEMENTS ADDRESSING TESTING AND REPAIRS -- Technician Training -- Test-Cycle Interval -- Waiver Limits -- Cutpoints -- Compliance and Enforcement -- EFFECT OF CURRENT I/M PROGRAMS ON VEHICLE EMISSIONS -- Recent Official Evaluations of State I/M Programs -- Evaluations of California Smog Check Program -- Colorado AIR Program -- Independent Evaluations of State I/M Programs -- Evaluation of Phoenix's Program -- Evaluation of Minnesota's Program -- Evaluation of Georgia's Program -- EPA's National Tampering Surveys -- SUMMARY -- 4 Emerging Emissions Testing Technologies -- MOTOR VEHICLE PROFILING -- ON-BOARD DIAGNOSTICS -- Readiness Code -- Failure Criteria -- Emissions or Pollutants of Concern -- Fast Pass Using OBDII -- Human Response to OBDII -- Recent OBD I/M Regulations -- Technical Analyses Regarding OBD I/M Tests -- Summary of Technical Issues Regarding OBD I/M Tests -- REMOTE SENSING -- Remote-Sensor Accuracy -- Carbon Monoxide -- Hydrocarbons -- Nitrogen Oxides -- Particulate Matter -- Site Selection and Effects of Engine Load -- Coverage -- Need for Quality Assurance and Quality Control -- Use of Remote Sensing to Identify High Emitters -- Hawthorne (Los Angeles) 1989 Study -- Rosemead Boulevard (Los Angeles) 1991 Study -- Michigan 1992 Study -- Orange County (Los Angeles) 1995 Study -- Arizona High-Emitter Program -- Use of Remote Sensing to Screen for Clean Vehicles -- ALTERNATIVE APPROACHES FOR CONTROLLING LIFETIME EMISSIONS -- SUMMARY -- 5 Estimating Inspection and Maintenance Emissions Reductions Using the MOBILE Model -- USE OF MOBILE IN REGULATORY APPLICATIONS -- MODEL PREDICTIONS COMPARED WITH PROGRAM EVALUATION DATA.

MOBILE I/M INPUTS -- Compliance Rates -- Waiver Rate -- Stringency Rate -- REVIEW OF MOBILE6 I/M MODELING APPROACH -- Non-I/M Basic Emissions Rate -- I/M Credits -- Repair Emissions Rate -- Identification Rate -- Noncomplying Vehicles -- Average Emissions after I/M -- Application of the I/M Credit -- OBD Effects -- Antitampering Programs -- Evaporative Emissions and I/M -- CALIFORNIA'S EMFAC MODEL FOR ESTIMATING I/M EMISSIONS REDUCTIONS -- SUMMARY -- 6 Evaluating Inspection and Maintenance Programs: Methods for Estimating Emissions Reductions -- METHODS FOR MEASURING EMISSIONS REDUCTIONS -- Data to Estimate I/M Emissions Reductions -- Data from I/M Programs -- Data from Roadside Testing -- Data from Remote Sensing -- Data on Evaporative Emissions -- Duration of Vehicle Repairs Issues -- Methods for Estimating I/M Tailpipe Emissions Reductions -- Reference Method -- Critiques of the EPA-Approved Reference Method -- Step Method -- Comprehensive Method -- Methods for Estimating Emissions Reductions From Induced Fleet Change -- Induced Scrapping -- Induced Relocation -- SUMMARY OF RECOMMENDATIONS FOR EVALUATION OF EMISSIONS REDUCTIONS -- States Conducting Comprehensive Evaluations -- States Conducting Shortened Evaluations -- Performance Indicators -- 7 Evaluating Inspection and Maintenance For Costs and Other Criteria -- EVALUATING COST AND COST-EFFECTIVENESS OF I/M -- Measuring Costs -- Costs of Finding Failing Vehicles -- Testing Costs -- Motorists' Costs -- Repair Costs -- Laboratory Studies of Repair Costs -- In-Program Studies of Repair Costs -- Fuel-Economy Savings -- Program Administration and Oversight -- Distribution of Costs Among Motorists -- Overall Cost-Effectiveness of I/M -- Multiple Pollutants -- Estimates of Program Cost-Effectiveness -- Cost-Effectiveness of Marginal Changes to I/M Programs -- Changes in Cutpoints.

High-Emitter and Low-Emitter Profiling -- Model-Year Exemption -- Remote Sensing -- Other Potential Program Modifications -- COMPLIANCE AND ENFORCEMENT -- Motorist Compliance -- Windshield-Sticker Enforcement -- Registration Denial -- Testing Station Compliance -- Quality Assurance -- Evaluating Motorist and Station Compliance -- PUBLIC ACCEPTANCE AND POLITICAL FEASIBILITY OF I/M AND PUBLIC AWARENESS OF AIR POLLUTION -- FUTURE TRENDS IN VEHICLE TECHNOLOGY THAT AFFECT I/M PROGRAM EVALUATION -- Decreasing Failure Rate -- OBDII Evaluation -- SUMMARY -- References -- Glossary -- Appendixes -- Appendix A Biographical Information on the Committee on Vehicle Emission Inspection and Maintenance Programs -- Appendix B Abbreviations and Names Used for Classifying Organic Compounds -- Appendix C Some Statistical Issues in Inspection and Maintenance Evaluations -- VEHICLE EMISSIONS DISTRIBUTIONS -- SAMPLING METHODS AND BIAS -- FACTORS INFLUENCING VEHICLE EMISSIONS -- HUMAN BEHAVIORAL FACTORS -- NUMBER OF VEHICLES -- AVERAGE VALUES AND LOG TRANSFORMS -- TESTING NULL HYPOTHESES -- CONFIDENCE LIMITS -- CORRELATIONS -- ISSUES IN EMISSIONS OF I/M TEST DATA TO ESTIMATE I/M BENEFITS -- COMPARISON OF TEST RESULTS AMONG PROGRAMS.