Assessing Knowledge of Retirement Behavior -- Copyright -- Preface -- Contents -- 1 Introduction -- INCOME AND WEALTH OF OLDER AMERICAN HOUSEHOLDS -- LABOR SUPPLY BEHAVIOR -- PERSONAL SAVING BEHAVIOR -- EMPLOYER BEHAVIOR -- MORTALITY, HEALTH STATUS, AND HEALTH CARE COSTS -- A FRAMEWORK FOR ANALYZING RETIREMENT INCOME SECURITY -- CONCLUSION -- 2 Income and Wealth of Older American Households: Modeling Issues for Public Policy Analysis -- CONCEPTUAL OVERVIEW -- COMPONENTS OF INCOME AND WEALTH OF OLDER HOUSEHOLDS -- Income Distribution Issues -- MODELS OF INDIVIDUAL AND FIRM BEHAVIOR EXPLAINING RETIREMENT INCOME AND WEALTH -- Income from Earnings Based on Labor Supply Decisions -- Savings and Wealth Determination -- Life-Cycle Analysis -- Precautionary Models of Savings -- Bequest Motive -- Research Integrating These Motives -- Research that Imposes Only Limited Structure -- Research Arguing that Full Optimization is Unlikely -- Continuing Controversy in the Savings Literature -- Pensions and Social Security -- At the Level of the Individual -- Pension Plan Determination at the Level of the Firm -- Research on Family Structures and Transfers -- Research on Housing -- RECONCILING RESEARCH ON LABOR SUPPLY, SAVINGS, AND PENSIONS -- MODELS AND DATA NEEDED TO UNDERSTAND THE INCOMES AND WEALTH OF OLDERAMERICANS -- SELECTED POLICIES AFFECTING RETIREMENT INCOMES AND WEALTH -- APPENDIX TABLES AND FIGURES -- NOTES -- REFERENCES -- 3 Factors Affecting Labor Supply Decisions and Retirement Income -- SUMMARY OF TRENDS -- SOCIAL SECURITY -- PENSIONS AND WINDOW PLANS -- Literature Review and Previous Methodology -- What we would like to know -- DISABILITY -- Literature Review and Previous Methodology -- What We Would Like to Know -- MEDICARE AND HEALTH INSURANCE -- Literature Review and Previous Methodology -- What We Would Like to Know.

HOURS FLEXIBILITY AND CAREER JOBS -- Literature Review and Previous Methodology -- What We Would Like to Know -- CONCLUSIONS -- Expectations -- Endogeneity -- Uncertainty -- Data Issues -- Other Concerns -- NOTES -- REFERENCES -- 4 Personal Saving Behavior and Retirement Income Modeling: A Research Assessment -- FORECASTING FINANCIAL STATUS: AN ORGANIZING FRAMEWORK -- Patterns of Wealth Holding for Pre-Retirement Cohorts -- Rates of Return -- Age-Specific Patterns of Net Saving -- MOTIVES FOR AND MODELS OF PRIVATE SAVING: WHAT DO WE KNOW? -- SOCIAL SECURITY AND PRIVATE SAVING -- PRIVATE PENSIONS AND SAVING -- TARGETED RETIREMENT SAVING ACCOUNTS AND PERSONAL SAVING -- Prospective Accumulation in Targeted Saving Accounts -- Net Saving Effects -- Withdrawal Behavior -- HOUSING WEALTH AND OTHER PRIVATE SAVING -- CONCLUSION AND FUTURE RESEARCH NEEDS -- REFERENCES -- 5 Retirement Age and Retirement Income: The Role of the Firm -- THE AGING WORKER AND THE FIRM -- The Aging Worker -- The Firm -- Scale Economies in Pension Administration -- Diseconomies of Scale in Idiosyncratic Decisions -- THE EMPLOYMENT OF OLDER WORKERS -- Compensation Profiles -- Mandatory Retirement Rules -- New-Hire Policies -- EMPLOYER-PROVIDED PENSIONS -- The Locus of Pension Coverage -- Trends in Pension Coverage -- A Pension Puzzle -- CONCLUSIONS -- Basic Data Needs -- The Ideal: Matched Worker/Firm Surveys of Workplaces -- Second Best: Employer Surveys with Estimates of Worker Characteristics -- Case Studies -- Administrative Cost Surveys -- Historical Analyses of Firm Behavior -- Basic Research -- The Determinants of Industry Structure -- The Firm, Information, and Control -- Aging and the Firm: Unfinished Business -- Priority Topics -- Emerging Issues -- NOTES -- REFERENCES -- 6 Assessing Forecasts of Mortality, Health Status, and Health Costs During BabyBoomers' Retirement.

HOW RAPIDLY WILL MORTALITY DECLINE? -- Mortality Decline in the United States During the 20th Century -- Comparisons of Forecasts -- Other Methods of Forecasting Mortality Change -- Evaluating the Uncertainty of Mortality Forecasts -- Some Specific Research Suggestions Using Existing Data and Established Methods -- Recommended Improvements in Data -- Recommended Research on Modeling and Methods -- HEALTH STATUS PROJECTIONS AND THE COMPRESSION OF DISABILITY -- The Compression Debate -- Strategies to Modeling Disability -- Recommendations for Improving Modeling and Data Collection -- PREDICTING HEALTH CARE COSTS -- Predicting Real Health Care Services by Demographic Group -- Predicting Health Care Quantities and Prices for the Next Century -- Conceptual Issues in Modeling Health Care Cost Projections -- HOW WILL CHANGING MORTALITY, HEALTH, AND HEALTH COSTS AFFECT RETIREMENT INCOME SECURITY? -- The Effect of Changes in the Demographic Structure on Income Security for the Elderly -- Traditional Approaches -- Stochastic Population Forecasts -- The Impact of Improving Patterns of Disability on Delaying Retirement -- The Distribution of Health Expenses Among Out-of-Pocket, Private Insurance, and Public Insurance -- The Distribution of Retirement Income -- CONCLUSION -- NOTES -- REFERENCES -- 7 A Framework for Analyzing Future Retirement Income Security -- MICRO MODELS OF RETIREMENT INCOME -- Social Security Forecasts -- Employer-Sponsored Pensions -- Household Saving -- DYNAMIC MICROSIMULATION -- Rationale -- Disadvantages -- MACROECONOMIC MODELING -- Determination of Aggregate Output -- Alternative Saving Models -- CYCLES -- CONCLUSION -- NOTES -- REFERENCES -- Biographical Sketches.