TABLE OF CONTENTS -- Acknowledgments -- Abbreviations -- EXECUTIVE SUMMARY -- PART I: OVERVIEW AND POLICY OPTIONS -- A Configuration of "Bandwagon" Reforms Could Make a Difference -- The Big Picture: Past and Present -- Growth and Poverty Reduction -- Understanding Growth in Jamaica -- Reducing the Fiscal and Debt Burden -- Revitalizing the Financial System -- Improving Education Outcomes -- Crime and Its Impact on Business -- Improving Jamaica's International Competitiveness -- PART II: MAIN REPORT -- 1. Growth and Poverty Reduction in Jamaica -- Poverty Incidence and Income Inequality -- Who are the Poor? -- Rural vs. Urban Poverty -- Poverty Reduction with No Growth: "The Paradox of the 1990s" -- Summary and Issues for the Future -- 2. Understanding Growth in Jamaica -- Slow Growth, High Investment, Low Employment Generation -- The Supply Side of Growth -- Jamaica's GDP Growth May Be Underestimated -- Capital Inputs -- The Labor Force and Growth -- Raising Growth in Jamaica -- 3. Reducing the Fiscal and Debt Burden -- The Government Budget -- Towards Sustainable Debt -- Reducing and Improving Government Expenditure -- Raising Revenue: Taxer and User Fees -- Fiscal Institutions and Governance -- 4. Revitalizing Jamaica's Financial System -- The Causes of Jamaica's Financial Crisis -- Dealing with the Crisis -- Results of the Crisis Revolution -- The Debt Overhang and Its Effects -- The Post-Crisis Improvement in Financial Sector Regulation, Supervision, and the Solvency Issue -- 5. Improving Education Outcomes -- The International Evidence on Private and Social Returns to Education -- Progress in Education Coverage, But Quality Suffered -- Social Returns to Education -- Inequality, Poverty, and Student Achievement -- Outcomes and Public Expenditure -- What Has Been Done and What More Can Be Done?.

6. Crime and its Impact on Business in Jamaica -- Governance in Jamaica: the International Context -- Dimension and Trends in Crime in Jamaica -- Patterns of Criminal Victimization of Jamaican Firms -- The Economic Costs of Crime -- Policy Options -- 7. Improving Jamaica's International Competitiveness -- Evolution of Trade in Jamaica 1998-2001 -- Trade Policy Reforms -- Has Jamaica Reaped the Full Gains From Trade -- The Decline in Competitiveness in the 1990s -- Jamaica's Business Environment for Exports -- The Performance in Tourism -- Decline in the Apparel Sector Reflects the Decline in Competitiveness -- Impending Issues in the International Trade Agenda -- Improving the Framework for Exports and Development -- Annexes -- Annex A: Identifying the Determinants of Crime -- Annex B: Methodology for Business Victimization Survey -- Annex C: Case of Service Station near Montego Bay -- Annex D: Case of Furniture Manufacturing Firm in Kingston Metropolitan Area -- Annex E: Program DESEPAZ, Desarrollo, Seguridad y Paz (Development, Security and Peace) in Cali, Colombia -- Annex F: Police and Community Cooperation for Reduction of Violence in Diadema, Sao Paulo, Brazil -- Annex G: Citizen Culture in Bogota (Cultura Ciudadana en a la Alcadia de Bogota), Bogota, Colombia -- Annex H: Focus on Youth: the Model of the City of Boston, Massachussets, USA -- Annex Tables -- Bibliography -- TABLES -- 1: Jamaica-Selected Economic and Social Indicators, 1980-2001 -- 2: Jamaica-Millenium Development Goals, Achievements and 2015 Target -- 3: Jamaica-GDP Growth, Employment Growth and Investment Rates: 1981-2001 -- 4: Jamaica-Indicators of Consumption (Average Annual Growth Rates) -- 5: Primary Surplus/Deficit (% of GDP) Required to Stabilize the Stock of Public Debt -- 6: The Annual Economic Cost of Crime, 2001 -- 7: Impact of Crime on Business Practice (%).

1.1: Consumption of the Poor, 1958-1988 -- 1.2: Poverty and Social and Economic Indicators -- 1.3: Poverty in Rural and Urban Areas (percent of population) -- 1.4: Movement in Average Wages and Earnings Compared to Increase in CPI -- 1.5: Factor Income Share -- 1.6: Jamaica CPI Annual Index and Relative Price of Food -- 1.7: Private Remittance Inflows (US millions) -- 2.1: Jamaica-GDP Growth, Employment Growth and Investment Rates: 1981-2001 -- 2.2: Jamaica Estimates of Sources of Growth 1991-2000 -- 2.3: Jamaica: The Rise in Currency Holdings, 1991-2000 -- 2.4: Jamaica: Labor Force Indicators, 1991-2000 -- 3.1: Jamaica Fiscal Operations, 1992/93-2002/03 -- 3.2: Jamaica-Domestic and External Debt, and Structure of External Debt, 1991/92-2001/02 -- 3.3: Primary Surplus/Deficit (% of GDP) Required to Stabilize the Stock of Public Debt -- 3.4: Jamaica Public Sector Investment Program, 2000/01-2003/04 -- 3.5: Government Revenues/GDP, Selected Countries, 2000 -- 3.6: Fiscal Risk Matrix -- 4.1: Jamaica's Financial System, 1990, 1995, and 2001 -- 4.2: Jamaica-Fixed Capital Formation and Growth, 1986-2001 -- 4.3: Government Net Credit Stock/Deposits, Banks, 2000 -- 5.1: Returns to Education of Male Immigrants in USA by Country of Birth -- 5.2: Enrollment by School Type in Secondary and Tertiary Education by Consumption Quintile (%), 2000 -- 5.3: Highest Examination Passed by Population 14 Years and Over Not Enrolled in School/Educational Institution (%), 2001 -- 6.1: International Comparisons of Selected Governance Indicators, 2002 -- 6.2: Victimization by Sector in which Firm is Located and Type of Crime -- 6.3: Reporting and Reporting Outcomes (% of Total Cases) -- 6.4: Distribution of Respondents by Selected Measures Taken to Protect Against Crime and Nature of Organization (%) -- 6.5: Annual Impact of Crime, Summary.

6.6: The Annual Economic Cost of Crime, 2001 -- 6.7: Impact of Crime on Business Practice (%) -- 7.1: Export and Import Growth in Jamaica -- 7.2: Merchandise Trade and Exchange Rates in Jamaica's Economy -- 7.3: Competitiveness Rankings for Jamaica and Neighboring Countries, 2001 -- ANNEX TABLES -- A1.1: Jamaica-Consumer Price Inflation, 1990-2002 -- A2.1: Jamaica-Main Aggregates of GDP, 1990-2001 -- A2.2: Jamaica-GDP by Industrial Sectors, current J, 1990-2001 -- A2.3: Jamaica-GDP by Industrial Sectors, constant J, 1990-2001 -- A2.4: Jamaica-GDP by Industrial Sectors, % growth, 1990-2001 -- A2.5: Growth Accounting Adjusting for Human Capital, 1961-2000 -- A2.6: Jamaica-Determinants of Change in GDP Per Capita -- A2.7: Jamaica-Labor Force and Employment by Industry Group and Labor Status (¢000), Annual Average -- A3.1: Jamaica-Non-financial Public Sector Debt -- A3.2: Jamaica-External Public Debt Outstanding -- A3.3: Jamaica-Central Government Revenues and Grants, 1996/97-2002/03 (% of GDP) -- A6.1: Crime Rate Indices for Jamaica, 1970-2001 -- A6.2: Jamaica and New York : Murder Rates for 100,000, 1970-2000 -- A6.3: Murder Rates by County and Parish, 1984-2001 -- A7.1a: Jamaica's Major Exports and Imports (US million) -- A7.1b: Jamaica's Major Exports and Imports (% of exports) -- A7.2: Jamaica: Balance of Payments Summary -- A7.3: Foreign Direct Investment in Jamaica (US million), 1998-01 -- BOXES -- 1.1: Measurement of Poverty in Jamaica -- 2.1: Consumption Indicators -- 3.1: A Tale of Two Privatizations -- 3.2: The Budget Process -- 6.1: Construction Firm in Kingston Metropolitan Area -- 7.1: The Impact of an Appreciated Exchange Rat -- 7.2: The Pass Through from the Exchange Rate to Prices -- 7.3: Inadequate Infrastructure Limits Investments, Competitiveness and Growth -- 7.4: The Decline of the La Moda Garment Company -- FIGURES.

1: Jamaica-Poverty Head Count -- 2: Jamaica: Poverty Head Count Actual and Regression Prediction -- 3: Jamaica: Fiscal Revenue and Expenditures by Type, 1991/92-2002/03 -- 4: Jamaica: Total Public Sector Debt to GDP -- 5: Jamaica: Bank Credit to the Public and Private Sectors, 1994-2002 -- 6: GDP Growth and Total Debt (% GDP) in 86 Countries -- 7: School Enrollment by Age and Consumption Quintile, 2000 -- 8: Lorenz Curve Distribution of Public Recurrent Expenditure by Level of Education and by Consumption Quintile, 2000 -- 9: Jamaica's International Ranking on Selected Governance Indicators, 2002/2003 -- 10: As its REER Appreciated, Jamaica's Share of Exports in GDP Declined -- 11: . . . and as its Share in World Exports Fell -- 1.1: Jamaica: Poverty Head Count (% of Population) -- 1.2: Poverty (%), Annual Inflation (% p.a.) and Annual GDP Growth (% p.a.) -- 1.3: Jamaica Poverty Head Count: Actual and Regression Prediction -- 3.1: Jamaica: Fiscal Revenue and Expenditures by Type, 1991/92-2002/03 -- 3.2: Jamaica: Total Public Sector Debt to GDP -- 4.1: Fiscal Cost of Banking Crisis (as Percentage of GDP) -- 4.2: Real GDP in Selected Crisis Countries, (First Crisis Year = 100) -- 4.3: Jamaica: Bank Credit to the Public and Private Sectors 1994-2002 -- 4.4: GDP Growth and Total Debt (% GDP) -- 4.5: Commercial Bank Loan Rates and Inflation, End June -- 5.1: School Quality According to Employers' Appraisal -- 5.2: School Enrollment by Age and Consumption Quintile, 2000 -- 5.3: Percent Correct in Mathematics, Junior High School Certificate Examination, 1997-2000 -- 5.4: Percent Correct in Language, Junior High School Certificate Examination, 1997-2000 -- 5.5: Percentage of Eligible Cohort Taking CXC, 2001 -- 5.6: Percentage of Total Passes of CXC Candidates, 2001 -- 5.7: CXC Performance in 9 Caribbean Countries.

5.8: English CXC Passing Rate (%) and Class Hours in Eight Caribbean Countries.