Contents -- Introduction -- Chapter 1 The Nature of Probability -- 1.1. Probability and Everyday Speech -- 1.2. Spinning a Coin -- 1.3. Throwing or Spinning Other Objects -- Problems 1 -- Chapter 2 Combining Probabilities -- 2.1. Either-or Probability -- 2.2. Both-and Probability -- 2.3. Genetically Inherited Disease - Just Gene Dependent -- 2.4. Genetically Dependent Disease - Gender Dependent -- 2.5. A Dice Game -American Craps -- Problems 2 -- Chapter 3 A Day at the Races -- 3.1. Kinds of Probability -- 3.2. Betting on a Horse -- 3.3. The Best Conditions for a Punter -- Problem 3 -- Chapter 4 Making Choices and Selections -- 4.1. Children Leaving a Room -- 4.2. Picking a Team -- 4.3. Choosing an Email Username -- 4.4. The UK National Lottery -- Problems 4 -- Chapter 5 Non-Intuitive Examples of Probability -- 5.1. The Birthday Problem -- 5.2. Crown and Anchor -- 5.3. To Switch or Not to Switch - That is the Question -- Problems 5 -- Chapter 6 Probability and Health -- 6.1. Finding the Best Treatment -- 6.2. Testing Drugs -- Problems 6 -- Chapter 7 Combining Probabilities -- The Craps Game Revealed -- 7.1. A Simple Probability Machine -- 7.2. Pontoon -A Card Game -- 7.3. The Throwers Chance of Winning at American Craps -- Problems 7 -- Chapter 8 The UK National Lottery, Loaded Dice, and Crooked Wheels -- 8.1. The Need to Test for Fairness -- 8.2. Testing Random Numbers -- 8.3. The UK National Lottery -- 8.4. American Craps with Loaded Dice -- 8.5. Testing for a Loaded Die -- 8.6. The Roulette Wheel -- Problems 8 -- Chapter 9 Block Diagrams -- 9.1. Variation in Almost Everything -- 9.2. A Shoe Manufacturer -- 9.3. Histogram Shapes -- 9.4. Lofty and Shorty -- Problem 9 -- Chapter 10 The Normal (or Gaussian) Distribution -- 10.1. Probability Distributions -- 10.2. The Normal Distribution -- 10.3. The Variance and Standard Deviation.

10.4. Properties of Normal Distributions -- 10.5. A Little Necessary Mathematics -- 10.5.1. Some Special Numbers -- 10.5.2. Powers of Numbers -- 10.6. The Form of the Normal Distribution -- 10.7. Random and Systematic Errors -- 10.8. Some Examples of the Normal Distribution -- 10.8.1. Electric Light Bulbs -- 10.8.2. People on Trolleys and Under-Used Resources -- Problems 10 -- Chapter 11 Statistics-The Collection and Analysis of Numerical Data -- 11.1. Too Much Information -- 11.2. Another Way of Finding the Variance -- 11.3. From Regional to National Statistics -- Problems 11 -- Chapter 12 The Poisson Distribution and Death by Horse Kicks -- 12.1. Rare Events -- 12.2. Typing a Manuscript -- 12.3. The Poisson Distribution as a Formula -- 12.4. Death by Horse Kicks -- 12.5. Some Other Examples of the Poisson Distribution -- 12.5.1. Flying Bomb Attacks on London -- 12.5.2. Clustering of a Disease -- 12.5.3. Some Further Examples -- Problems 12 -- Chapter 13 Predicting Voting Patterns -- 13.1. Election Polls -- 13.2. Polling Statistics -- 13.3. Combining Polling Samples -- 13.4. Polling with More than Two Parties -- 13.5. Factors Affecting Polls and Voting -- Problems 13 -- Chapter 14 Taking Samples-How Many Fish in the Pond? -- 14.1. Why do we Sample? -- 14.2. Finding out from Samples -- 14.3. An Illustrative Example -- 14.4. General Comments on Sampling -- 14.5. Quality Control -- 14.6. How Many Fish in the Pond? -- Problems 14 -- Chapter 15 Differences - Rats and IQs -- 15.1. The Significance of Differences -- 15.2. Significantly Different - So What! -- Problem 15 -- Chapter 16 Crime is Increasing and Decreasing -- 16.1. Crime and the Reporting of Crime -- 16.2. The Trend for Overall Crime in England and Wales -- 16.3. Vehicle Crime, Burglary, and Violent Crime -- 16.4. Homicide -- 16.5. Crime and Politicians -- Problem 16.

Chapter 17 My Uncle Joe Smoked 60 a Day -- 17.1. Genetics and Disease -- 17.2. The Incidence of Smoking in the United Kingdom -- 17.3. The Smoking Lottery -- Problem 17 -- Chapter 18 Chance, Luck, and Making Decisions -- 18.1. The Winds of Chance -- 18.2. Choices -- 18.3. I Want a Lucky General -- 18.4. To Fight or Not to Fight - That is the Question -- 18.5. The Mathematics of War -- Problem 18 -- Solutions to Problems -- Problems 1 -- Problems 2 -- Problem 3 -- Problems 4 -- Problems 5 -- Problems 6 -- Problems 7 -- Problems 8 -- Problem 9 -- Problems 10 -- Problems 11 -- Problems 12 -- Problems 13 -- Problems 14 -- Problem 15 -- Problem 16 -- Problem 17 -- Problem 18 -- Index.