EMPLOYMENT EFFECTS OF TRANSITION TO A HYDROGEN ECONOMY IN THE U.S. -- EMPLOYMENT EFFECTS OF TRANSITION TO A HYDROGEN ECONOMY IN THE U.S. -- CONTENTS -- EXECUTIVE SUMMARY* -- E.1. Background to the Study -- E.2. Methodology -- E.3. Scenarios Shaping Future Hydrogen Markets -- E.4. Employment Creation and Replacement at the National Level -- E.5. Regional Variations in Economic Impacts -- E.6. International Competition -- Recommendations -- 1. Training programs -- 2. Additional analysis -- End Notes -- Chapter 1 INTRODUCTION -- End Notes -- Chapter 2 SCENARIOS SHAPING A HYDROGEN ECONOMY -- 2.1. Base Case -- 2.2. Hydrogen Use in the HFI Scenario -- 2.3. Hydrogen Use in the Less Aggressive Scenario -- 2.4. Hydrogen Vehicles -- 2.4.1. Hydrogen Vehicles in the HFI Scenario -- 2.4.2. Hydrogen Vehicles in the Less Aggressive Scenario -- 2.5. Other Transportation Markets -- 2.6. Stationary Fuel Cells -- 2.6.1. Stationary Fuel Cells in the HFI Scenario -- 2.6.2. Stationary Fuel Cells in the Less Aggressive Scenario -- 2.7. Hydrogen Production and Delivery in the Two Hydrogen Adoption Scenarios -- End Notes -- Chapter 3 EMPLOYMENT CREATION AND REPLACEMENT AT THE NATIONAL LEVEL -- 3.1. Modeling the U.S. Economy -- 3.1.1. The IMPLAN Inter-Industry Model -- 3.1.2. Future of the U.S. Economy in the Absence of a Hydrogen Transformation -- 3.1.3. Modification of IMPLAN for Hydrogen Economy Scenarios -- 3.2. Net Effects on Total U.S. Employment -- 3.3. Job Creation and Replacement -- 3.3.1. Employment Shifts between Gaining and Losing Industries -- 3.3.2. Job Creation and Replacement within Key Industries -- 3.4. Education, Training, and Re-Training -- 3.4.1. Human Capital in the Hydrogen Market Expansion -- 3.4.2. White Collar Workers -- 3.4.3. Blue Collar Workers -- End Notes -- Chapter 4 REGIONAL VARIATION IN ECONOMIC IMPACTS.

4.1. Characteristics of Selected Regions -- 4.2. Impacts of Hydrogen Transformation in the Five Regions Under the HFI Scenario -- 4.2.1. Overview -- 4.2.2. The Upper Midwest Region -- 4.2.3. The Lower New England and Upper Mid-Atlantic Region -- 4.2.4. California -- 4.2.5. Tennessee -- 4.2.6. Houston -- Chapter 5 INTERNATIONAL COMPETITION -- 5.1. U.S. Share of Hydrogen-Related Products -- 5.1.1. Vehicles and Vehicle Parts -- 5.2. Hydrogen Infrastructure -- 5.2.1. Infrastructure Construction -- 5.2.2. Infrastructure Components -- 5.3. Energy Imports -- 5.3.1. Oil -- 5.3.2. Natural Gas -- 5.4. Multinational Corporations -- 5.4.1. Future Hydrogen Production by Multinationals -- 5.4.2. Regional Implications -- 5.5. Indirect International Effects on the U.S. Economy -- 5.5.1. Effects on the Trade Balance and Exports -- 5.5.2. Effects on the World Capital Market and Interest Rates -- End Notes -- Chapter 6 CONCLUSION -- Recommendations -- 1. Training programs -- 2. Additional analysis -- APPENDICES -- APPENDIX 1. DETAILS OF THE HYDROGEN ECONOMY SCENARIOS -- A.1.1. Vision Model -- A.1.2. Hydrogen Production Technologies -- A.1.3. Hydrogen Delivery Technologies -- A.1.4. Feedstock and Resources -- A.1.4.1. Coal -- A.1.4.2. Natural Gas -- A.1.4.3. Biomass -- A.1.4.4. Uranium and Water -- A.1.4.5. Wind -- A.1.5. Stationary Fuel Cells -- End Notes -- APPENDIX 2. INFRASTRUCTURE COST ESTIMATION -- A.2.1. H2A Models -- A.2.1.1. H2A Production and Forecourt Models -- A.2.1.2. H2A Delivery Model -- A.2.2. Cost Estimation -- A.2.2.1. Development of Unit Cost Data -- A.2.2.2. Regrouping Production and Delivery Components -- A.2.2.3. Aggregation of Unit Costs -- A.2.2.4. Estimating Total Demand from Hydrogen Production and Delivery -- A.2.3. Total U.S. Infrastructure Cost Details -- End Notes -- APPENDIX 3. VEHICLE COST ESTIMATES.

A.3.1. Powertrain Technology Options -- A.3.2. Fuel Cell System Technology Description -- A.3.3. 2005 Baseline Fuel Cell System Cost Analysis -- A.3.4. 2006 Employment Study Inputs -- A.3.5. Sub-System Costs -- A.3.5.1. Fuel Cell Sub-system -- A.3.5.1.1. Stack Cost -- A.3.5.1.2. Stack Materials and Cost -- A.3.5.1.3. Platinum Recycling -- A.3.5.2. Hydrogen Storage Sub-system -- A.3.5.2.1. Hydrogen Storage Material and Cost -- A.3.5.3. Hybrid Battery Sub-system -- A.3.6. Overall Vehicle Cost -- End Notes -- APPENDIX 4. INPUT-OUTPUT MODELING OF THE EMPLOYMENT IMPACTS OF THE HYDROGEN ECONOMY -- A.4.1. The Use of Input-Output Analysis -- A.4.2. Description of the IMPLAN Model -- A.4.3. Description of the Input/Output Modeling Process -- A.4.3.1. Overview of the Process -- A.4.3.2. Baseline Model (Maintain status quo structural matrix through 2050) -- A.4.3.3. Baseline Employment Model (Includes Productivity Improvement through 2050) -- A.4.3.4. Hydrogen Technology Structural Models -- A.4.3.5. Hydrogen Technology Demand -- A.4.3.6. Output and Employment Impacts -- A.4.4. Forecasting the Base Case Model -- A.4.5. Industry Distribution of Vehicle Costs -- A.4.6. Overview of Adjusted Input and Construction Vectors -- A.4.6.1. Automobile and Light Truck Manufacturing (IMPLAN Sector #344) -- A.4.6.2. Motor Vehicle Parts Manufacturing (IMPLAN Sector #350) -- A.4.6.3. Industrial Gas Manufacturing (IMPLAN Sector #148) -- A.4.6.4. Gasoline Stations (IMPLAN Sector #407) -- A.4.6.5. Petroleum Refineries (IMPLAN Sector #142) -- A.4.6.6. Power Generation and Supply (IMPLAN Sector #30) -- A.4.6.7. Wholesale Trade (IMPLAN Sector #391) -- A.4.6.8. Truck Transportation (IMPLAN Sector #394) -- A.4.6.9. Pipeline Transportation (IMPLAN Sector #396) -- A.4.6.10. Other Industries -- A.4.7. Development of Hydrogen Technology Production Function Vectors5.

A.4.7.1. Hydrogen-Powered Motor Vehicles -- A.4.7.2. Hydrogen Production Industries -- A.4.8. Development of Investment Estimates -- A.4.8.1. Hydrogen Production and Delivery Infrastructure -- A.4.8.2. Gasoline Stations -- A.4.8.3. Petroleum Refineries -- A.4.8.4. Vehicle and Vehicle Components Factories -- A.4.8.5. The Oil and Gas Sector -- A.4.8.6. Coal Mining -- A.4.8.7. Stationary Fuel Cells -- A.4.8.8. Avoided Utility Investment -- A.4.8.9. Overall Investment -- End Notes -- APPENDIX 5. METHODOLOGY FOR EMPLOYMENT CREATION AND REPLACEMENT ESTIMATES -- A.5.1. Calculation of Total Sector Level Gains and Losses -- A.5.2. Sources of Employment Data at the Occupational Level -- A.5.3. Summary of the Calculation and Consistency Requirements -- A.5.4. Raw Creation and Replacement Estimates -- A.5.5. Data Adjustment -- A.5.6. Splitting up Occupations by Skill -- A.5.7. Calculating Percent Distributions -- A.5.8. Taking Weighted Averages -- A.5.9. Calculating Numbers of Workers -- A.5.10. Job Creation and Replacement by Scenario and Year -- A.5.11. Obtaining Totals for White Collar and Blue Collar Workers -- A.5.12. Sources of Data and Estimates Related to Retraining Analysis -- End Notes -- INDEX.