Food Aid Projections for the Decade of the 1990s -- Copyright -- Preface -- Contents -- Executive Summary -- PRINCIPAL FINDINGS -- DEFINITIONS OF FOOD AID -- METHODOLOGIES -- DEMOGRAPHIC CONSIDERATIONS -- NUTRITIONAL CONSIDERATIONS -- ESTIMATES COMPARED -- SHOCKS THAT COULD AFFECT FUTURE PROJECTIONS -- Weather and Climate -- Other External Factors -- Food Aid Projections for the 1990s: Workshop Proceedings -- INTRODUCTION -- DEFINITIONS -- METHODOLOGY -- FOOD COMMODITY TRADE AND AID FORECASTING -- OUTPUT OF THE MODELS -- PRESENTATION OF THE IFPRI FIGURES -- Hannah Ezekiel, International Food Policy Research Institute -- PRESENTATION OF FAO FIGURES -- Richard Perkins, Commodities and Trade Division -- PRESENTATION OF WORLD BANK FIGURES -- Ronald Duncan, International Commodity Markets Division -- PRESENTATION OF THE FAPRI FIGURES -- W. Meyers, Center for Agriculture and Rural Development, Iowa State University -- PRESENTATION OF USDA FIGURES -- R. Nightingale and R. Trostle, Economic Research Service -- PRESENTATION OF IIASA FIGURES -- K. Frohberg, OECD, Paris -- MACROECONOMIC CONTEXT COMMENTARY -- Lawrence Klein, Economics Department, University of Pennsylvania -- DEMOGRAPHIC CONSIDERATIONS COMMENTARY -- Robert Chen, Alan Shawn Feinstein World Hunger Program -- NUTRITIONAL CONTEXT COMMENTARY -- Per Pinstrup-Andersen, Food and Nutrition Policy Program, Cornell University -- TECHNICAL RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT CONTEXT -- Donald Plucknett, Senior Scientific Adviser, World Bank -- CLIMATIC IMPACT CONTEXT -- Norman J. Rosenberg, Climate Resources Program, Resources for the Future -- CLIMATE CHANGE -- DROUGHT IMPACT -- AFRICAN REGIONAL CONTEXT -- Christopher Delgado, IFPRI -- ESTIMATING FOOD AID -- Estimates -- USDA Projection to 2000 -- World Bank Projection -- IIASA/BLS Estimate -- IFPRI Estimate -- Nutritional Need Estimates -- FAO Estimate.

POINTS OF CONSENSUS REACHED BY THE WORKSHOP -- REFERENCES AND BIBLIOGRAPHY -- Appendix A Medium Term Estimates of Demand-Based Food Aid Requirements and Their Variability -- 1 INTRODUCTION -- Scope of Study -- Nature of Food Aid -- Estimation of Food Aid Requirements -- The Basic Model -- Cereal Exports and Commercial Cereal Imports -- Changes in Scope and Methodology -- 2 TREND ESTIMATES -- High and Low Estimates -- The Basic Estimate -- Food Aid and Commercial Imports -- Food Aid Needs by Country Income Class -- Food Aid for Low Income Countries and Commercial Imports -- 3 VARIABILITY OF FOOD AID REQUIREMENTS -- Variability in Individual Countries -- Variability in Country Groups -- REFERENCES -- Appendix B Food Aid Requirements of Developing Countries -- Results of the Reference Run -- Impact of Trade Liberalization on Hunger -- Impact of Aid on Hunger -- REFERENCES -- Appendix C Commodity Market Outlook and Trade Implications Indicated by the FAPRI Analysis -- INTRODUCTION -- MODEL DESCRIPTION -- ASSUMPTIONS -- Macroeconomic Assumptions -- Farm Policy Assumptions -- Yield Assumptions -- COMMODITY MARKET PROJECTIONS -- DETAILED REGIONAL IMPLICATIONS -- Africa and Middle East -- Latin America -- Asia -- Centrally Planned Economies -- CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS -- DOCUMENTATION AND REFERENCES -- Appendix D Outlook for Grains and Soybeans to 2000 -- INTRODUCTION -- MODEL DESCRIPTION -- ASSUMPTIONS -- SIMULATION RESULTS -- CONCLUSIONS -- Appendix E Workshop Statement -- ESTIMATION OF FOOD AID REQUIREMENTS: SOME BASIC ISSUES -- NUTRITION-BASED ESTIMATES OF FOOD AID REQUIREMENTS -- FAO'S LONG-TERM AGRICULTURAL PROJECTION MODEL: AGRICULTURE TOWARD 2000 -- FAO'S MEDIUM-TERM COMMODITY PROJECTIONS: THE WORLD FOOD MODEL -- ANNEX: EXCERPTS FROM AGRICULTURE: TOWARD 2000 -- Methodology of Projections: A Summary Note -- Evaluation of Production Projections.

Final Adjustments -- Input Requirements -- Employment and Mechanization -- Investments -- Appendix F Food Aid Needs during the 1990s -- GLOBAL DEMAND AND SUPPLY FACTORS -- World Demand -- World Supply -- World Trade Prospects -- Excess Capacity Remains -- Prices -- OUTLOOK FOR DEMAND, SUPPLY, AND TRADE IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES -- Demand in Developing Countries -- Supply in Developing Countries -- Natural Resource and Technology Concerns -- Trade Prospects for Developing Countries -- CONCLUSIONS -- REFERENCES -- Appendix G A Discussion of Long-Term Agricultural Commodity Forecasts and Food Aid Needs -- PREFACE -- INTRODUCTION -- MODEL DESIGN AND SCOPE -- POLICY IMPLEMENTATION -- MODEL INPUTS AND ASSUMPTIONS -- MODELS RESULTS AND LONG TERM OUTLOOK -- Prices -- Production -- Trade -- Food Aid Needs -- CONCLUSION -- REFERENCES.