Global Change and our Common Future -- Copyright -- FOREWORD -- PREFACE -- ACKNOWLEDGMENTS -- Contents -- PART A SOCIETY'S STAKE IN GLOBAL CHANGE -- 1 Toward a Global Environmental Policy -- 2 Global Change and our Common Future: The Benjamin Franklin Lecture -- 3 Global Change and Carrying Capacity: Implications for Life on Earth -- DIRECT HUMAN IMPACTS -- GLOBAL WARMING -- MODELING GLOBAL CHANGE AND FOOD SECURITY -- CONCLUSIONS -- ACKNOWLEDGMENTS -- References -- PART B THE EARTH SYSTEM -- 4 The Earth System -- 5 Mission to Planet Earth Revisited -- GLOBAL CHANGE IN THE LIMELIGHT -- GROWING INTEREST -- A SCIENTIFIC INITIATIVE -- OTHER INITIATIVES -- EARTH OBSERVING SYSTEM -- THE U.S. GOVERNMENT RESPONDS -- KEY ISSUES -- Redesigning Institutions -- Social Sciences and Engineering -- Developing Countries -- Financing -- CONTINUING QUESTIONS -- NOTES -- 6 Historical Perspectives: Climatic Changes Throughout the Millennia -- References for Additional Reading -- 7 Mathematical Modeling of Greenhouse Warming: How Much do we Know? -- ACKNOWLEDGMENTS -- References -- 8 The Earth's Fragile Ozone Shield -- HISTORY OF THE OZONE DEPLETION PROBLEM -- CURRENT THEORETICAL UNDERSTANDING OF ANTARCTIC OZONE DEPLETION -- OBSERVATIONAL EVIDENCE -- METEOROLOGICAL PROCESSES: ANTARCTIC AND ARCTIC -- IMPLICATIONS -- NOTES -- 9 Terrestrial Ecosystems -- INTRODUCTION -- TERRESTRIAL ECOSYSTEM DYNAMICS -- MODERN GLOBAL CHANGE AND TERRESTRIAL ECOSYSTEMS -- CONCLUSIONS -- References -- 10 Human Dimensions Of Global Environmental Change -- WHAT HAVE WE LEARNED? -- WHAT IS BEING DONE? -- THE NATURE OF SOCIAL SCIENCE RESEARCH ON GLOBAL CHANGE -- THE RESEARCH AGENDA -- RESEARCH AND ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY -- SUMMARY -- 11 The Human Causes of Global Environmental Change -- PROXIMATE SOURCES OF CHANGE -- HUMAN DRIVING AND MITIGATING FORCES OF CHANGE -- Human Driving Forces.

Human Mitigating Forces -- HUMAN BEHAVIOR -- NOTES -- PART C IMPACTS OF GLOBAL CHANGE -- 12 What Does Global Change Mean For Society? -- THE AGRICULTURAL EFFECTS OF DEFORESTATION -- OVERGRAZING AND THE LOSS OF GRASSLAND -- THE COST OF SOIL EROSION -- THE CHANGING POPULATION/LAND RELATIONSHIP -- WATER FOR BREAD -- THE TECHNOLOGICAL PROSPECT -- CLIMATE AND FOOD -- TWO SCENARIOS -- THE SOCIAL EFFECTS -- A NEW FOOD ERA -- 13 Impacts of Future Sea Level Rise -- ACKNOWLEDGMENTS -- References -- 14 Threats To Biological Diversity As The Earth Warms -- BIOLOGICAL DIVERSITY -- THE NATURE OF THE ECOLOGICALLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES -- SPECIES' RANGES SHIFT IN RESPONSE TO CLIMATE CHANGE -- MAGNITUDE OF PROJECTED LATITUDINAL SHIFTS -- MECHANISMS UNDERLYING RANGE SHIFTS -- DISPERSAL RATES AND BARRIERS -- SYNERGY OF HABITAT DESTRUCTION AND CLIMATE CHANGE -- AMELIORATION AND MITIGATION -- CONCLUSION -- ACKNOWLEDGMENTS -- References -- 15 Deforestation and its Role in Possible Changes in the Brazilian Amazon -- CAUSES FOR DEFORESTATION -- THE EXTENT OF DEFORESTATION -- DEFORESTATION AND ITS POSSIBLE PHYSICAL AND BIOLOGICAL CONSEQUENCES -- Biodiversity -- Hydrological Cycle and Climate -- Transport of Sediments -- Carbon Dioxide Emissions -- CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS -- ACKNOWLEDGMENTS -- References -- 16 Impacts of Global Change -- PART D IMPLICATIONS FOR PUBLIC POLICY -- 17 The Global Environment: A National Security Issue -- 18 Implications for Public Policy: Options for Action -- INTRODUCTION: A GLOBAL DILEMMA -- THE CRITERIA FOR A SUCCESSFUL RESPONSE -- CONCLUSIONS -- 19 View from the North -- 20 View from the South -- REQUIRED CHANGES IN NORTHERN POLICIES TO CHANGE SOUTHERN PUBLIC POLICY TO MEET THE GLOBAL CHALLENGE -- SOUTHERN NATIONAL POLICIES REQUIRED TO MAKE THE GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT SAFER -- FINAL REMARK.

21 Political Leadership and the Brundtland Report: What are the Implication for Public Policy? -- 22 Global Warming: Is it Real and should it be Part of a Global Change Program?* -- ASPECTS OF THE DEBATE VISIBLE TO THE PUBLIC -- SOME ELEMENTS OF THE SCIENTIFIC DEBATE -- VALUE JUDGMENTS AND POLICYMAKING -- NEED FOR ONGOING SCIENTIFIC INVESTIGATION -- Continued Observation and Monitoring -- Model Validation -- CONCLUDING REMARKS -- NOTES -- APPENDIXES -- Appendix A Program-Forum on Global Change and our Common Future -- Appendix B Committee on Global Change and Oversight Committee Members -- Committee on Global Change (U.S. National Committee for the IGBP) -- AD HOC Committee for Oversight of the Committee on Global Change.