The National Energy Modeling System -- Copyright -- DEDICATION -- Contents -- Acknowledgments -- Executive Summary -- PRINCIPAL FINDINGS -- PRINCIPAL RECOMMENDATIONS -- Timing of NEMS Development -- NEMS Management -- NEMS Design -- 1 INTRODUCTION -- STUDY GENESIS AND BACKGROUND -- SCOPE OF THE STUDY -- ORGANIZATION OF THE REPORT -- 2 NEMS REQUIREMENTS -- THE ROLE OF MODELS IN POLICY ANALYSIS AND PLANNING -- Energy Policy-Related Models -- General Approaches To Modeling -- The Benefits of Models -- The Limitations of Models -- THE MISSION AND FUNCTIONS OF DOE AND EIA -- Strategic Analysis -- Data Collection and Information Dissemination -- R&D Program Planning -- Current Modeling Capabilities Within DOE and EIA -- NEMS IN THE BROAD CONTEXT OF POLICY ANALYSIS -- Keeping NEMS Outward Looking -- Capabilities Outside DOE -- THE NATIONAL ENERGY STRATEGY EXPERIENCE -- Overview of the NES Exercise -- Committee View of the NES Analysis -- Illustrative Policies -- DIRECTIONS IN ENERGY MODELING -- General Trends -- Quantification of Uncertainty -- Long-Term Forecasting -- NEMS REQUIREMENTS -- FINDINGS AND RECOMMENDATIONS -- 3 NEMS ARCHITECTURE -- OVERVIEW -- MODULAR ARCHITECTURE -- Advantages of Modular Systems -- Disadvantages of Modular Systems -- INTEGRATING MODEL OPERATION -- PROPOSED MODULES -- The Control Module -- Fossil Fuel Supply Modules -- Energy Conversion Modules -- Renewable Energy Conversion Modules -- The International Energy Module -- The Interindustry Growth Model -- Energy Demand Modules -- Behavioral Information Requirements -- Sectoral Information Needs -- Information Needs for Policy Analysis -- Quality and Timeliness of Data and Information -- Reduced-Form Modules -- Satellite Modules -- Energy Security -- The Environmental Module -- Report Writers -- NEMS COMPARED TO CURRENT DOE MODELING -- NEMS TREATMENT OF CONCEPTUAL ISSUES.

Market Disequilibrium -- Uncertainty -- Contingent Strategies -- The Formation of Expectations -- Environmental Constraints -- OPERATIONAL ISSUES FOR NEMS DEVELOPMENT -- RECOMMENDATIONS -- 4 IMPLEMENTATION OF THE NEMS -- LEAD ORGANIZATION FOR THE NEMS -- SUGGESTIONS FOR IMPLEMENTATION -- EMPLOYEE ENVIRONMENT -- MANAGEMENT OF NEMS DEVELOPMENT -- MOTIVATION AND USEFULNESS -- RECOMMENDATIONS -- APPENDIX A-1 SCOPE OF WORK -- THE PROBLEM -- ANALYSIS OF THE PROBLEM -- PROPOSED EFFORT -- First Part of Review -- Second Part of Review -- ANTICIPATED RESULTS -- REPORTING -- APPENDIX A-2 COMMITTEE CHARGE -- APPENDIX B FIRST ADVISORY REPORT -- COMMITTEE ON NATIONAL ENERGY MODELING SYSTEM -- Staff -- I. INTRODUCTION -- II. FINDINGS -- A. Background -- B. General Observations -- C. Specific Comments -- 1. Long-Run Modeling and Forecasting -- 2. The FOSSIL2 Model -- 3. Adequacy of Data -- 4. Dealing with Uncertainty -- III. CONCLUDING REMARKS -- BIBLIOGRAPHY -- APPENDIX C THE MISSION AND FUNCTIONS OF THE DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY -- ESTABLISHMENT OF THE DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY -- THE SECRETARY OF ENERGY AS CABINET SPOKESMAN -- THE DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY AS STRATEGIC PLANNER -- THE DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY'S INFORMATION ROLE -- THE DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY AS R&D MANAGER -- APPENDIX D ILLUSTRATIVE CASE STUDIES -- CASE STUDY 1: AUTOMOBILE EFFICIENCY STANDARDS -- Establishing the Need for Policy Intervention -- Analytical Requirements -- CASE STUDY 2: NATURAL GAS PIPELINE CERTIFICATION -- Establishing the Need for Policy Intervention -- Analytical Requirements -- The Role of Analysis -- CASE STUDY 3: MAGLEV R&D -- Establishing the Need for Policy Intervention -- Analytical Requirements -- The Analytic Process and the Use of NEMS -- The Role of Analysis -- SUMMARY -- APPENDIX E A BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF DOE AND EIA MODELS -- PROJECT INDEPENDENCE EVALUATION SYSTEM.

INTERMEDIATE FUTURE FORECASTING SYSTEM -- LONG-TERM ENERGY ANALYSIS PROGRAM -- SHORT-TERM INTEGRATED FORECASTING SYSTEM -- FOSSIL2 -- APPENDIX F MEETINGS AND ACTIVITIES -- JULY 31 & AUGUST 1, 1990 -- SEPTEMBER 20 & 21, 1990 -- NOVEMBER 6, 1990 -- NOVEMBER 8 AND 9, 1990 -- JANUARY 17 AND 18, 1991 -- FEBRUARY 28 AND MARCH 1, 1991 -- APRIL 18 AND 19, 1991 -- JUNE 6 AND 7, 1991 -- JULY 15 AND 17, 1991 -- JULY 25 AND 26, 1991 -- OCTOBER 4, 1991 -- REFERENCES AND BIBLIOGRAPHY.