RISK MODELING, ASSESSMENT, AND MANAGEMENT -- CONTENTS -- Preface -- Acknowledgments -- Part I. Fundamentals of Risk Modeling, Assessment, and Management -- 1. The Art and Science of Systems and Risk Analysis -- 1.1 Introduction -- 1.2 Systems Engineering -- 1.3 Risk Assessment and Management -- 1.4 Concept Road Map: The Farmer's Dilemma -- 1.5 Epilogue -- References -- 2. The Role of Modeling in the Risk Analysis Process -- 2.1 Introduction -- 2.2 The Risk Assessment and Management Process -- 2.3 Information, Intelligence, and Models -- 2.4 The Building Blocks of Mathematical Models -- 2.5 The Farmer's Dilemma Revisited -- 2.6 Example Problems -- References -- 3. Identifying Risk Through Hierarchical Holographic Modeling -- 3.1 Hierarchical Aspects -- 3.2 Hierarchical Overlapping Coordination -- 3.3 Hierarchical Holographic Modeling (HHM) -- 3.4 Hierarchical Holographic Modeling and the Theory of Scenario Structuring -- 3.5 Generic Energy System -- 3.6 Water Resource System -- 3.7 Sustainable Development -- 3.8 HHM in a System Acquisition Project -- 3.9 Software Acquisition -- 3.10 Hardening the Water Supply Infrastructure -- 3.11 Risk Assessment and Management for Support of Operations Other Than War -- 3.12 Automated Highway System -- References -- 4. Decision Analysis -- 4.1 Introduction -- 4.2 Decision Rules Under Uncertainty -- 4.3 Decision Trees -- 4.4 Decision Matrix -- 4.5 The Fractile Method -- 4.6 Triangular Distribution -- 4.7 Influence Diagrams -- 4.8 Population Dynamics Models -- 4.9 Example Problems -- References -- 5. Multiobjective Trade-Off Analysis -- 5.1 Introduction -- 5.2 Examples of Multiple Environmental Objectives -- 5.3 The Surrogate Worth Trade-Off (SWT) Method -- 5.4 Characterizing a Proper Noninferior Solution -- 5.5 The Surrogate Worth Trade-Off Method and the Utility Function Approach -- 5.6 Example Problems.

5.7 Summary -- References -- 6. Defining Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis -- 6.1 Introduction -- 6.2 Sensitivity, Responsivity, Stability, and Irreversibility -- 6.3 Uncertainties Due to Errors in Modeling -- 6.4 Characterization of Modeling Errors -- 6.5 Uncertainty Taxonomy -- 6.6 The Uncertainty Sensitivity Index Method -- 6.7 Formulation of the Multiobjective Optimization Problem -- 6.8 A Robust Algorithm of the USIM -- 6.9 Integration of the USIM with Parameter Optimization at the Design Stage -- 6.10 Conclusions -- References -- 7. Risk Filtering, Ranking, and Management -- 7.1 Introduction -- 7.2 Past Efforts in Risk Filtering and Ranking -- 7.3 Risk Filtering, Ranking, and Management: A Methodological Framework -- 7.4 Case Study: An Operation Other Than War -- 7.5 Summary -- References -- Part II. Advances in Risk Modeling, Assessment, and Management -- 8. Risk of Extreme Events and the Fallacy of Expected Value -- 8.1 Introduction -- 8.2 Risk of Extreme Events -- 8.3 The Fallacy of the Expected Value -- 8.4 The Partitioned Multiobjective Risk Method -- 8.5 General Formulation of the PMRM -- 8.6 Summary of the PMRM -- 8.7 Illustrative Example -- 8.8 Analysis of Dam Failure and Extreme Floods Through the PMRM -- 8.9 Example Problems -- 8.10 Summary -- References -- 9. Multiobjective Decision-Tree Analysis -- 9.1 Introduction -- 9.2 Methodological Approach -- 9.3 Differences Between Single - and Multiple-Objective Decision Trees -- 9.4 Summary -- 9.5 Example Problems -- References -- 10. Multiobjective Risk Impact Analysis Method -- 10.1 Introduction -- 10.2 Impact Analysis -- 10.3 The Multiobjective, Multistage Impact Analysis Method: An Overview -- 10.4 Combining the PMRM and the MMIAM -- 10.5 Example Problems -- 10.6 Epilogue -- References -- 11. Statistics of Extremes: Extension of the PMRM.

11.1 A Review of the Partitioned Multiobjective Risk Method -- 11.2 Statistics of Extremes -- 11.3 Incorporating the Statistics of Extremes into the PMRM -- 11.4 Sensitivity Analysis of the Approximation of f4(.) -- 11.5 Generalized Quantification of Risk of Extreme Events -- 11.6 Summary -- 11.7 Example Problems -- References -- 12. Bayesian Analysis and the Prediction of Chemical Carcinogenicity -- 12.1 Background -- 12.2 Calculating Sensitivity and Specificity -- 12.3 Battery Selection -- 12.4 Determining the Performance (Predictivity and Selectivity) of the Test Battery -- 12.5 Trade-Offs and Policy Analysis -- References -- 13. Fault Trees -- 13.1 Introduction -- 13.2 Basic Fault-Tree Analysis -- 13.3 Reliability and Fault-Tree Analysis -- 13.4 Minimal Cut Sets -- 13.5 The Distribution Analyzer and Risk Evaluator Using Fault Trees -- 13.6 Extreme Events in Fault-Tree Analysis -- 13.7 An Example Problem Based on a Case Study -- 13.8 Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA) -- Failure Mode, Effects, and Criticality Analysis (FMECA) -- 13.9 Example Problems -- References -- 14. Multiobjective Statistical Method -- 14.1 Introduction -- 14.2 Mathematical Formulation of the Interior Drainage Problem -- 14.3 Formulation of the Optimization -- 14.4 The Multiobjective Statistical Method (MSM): Step-by-Step -- 14.5 The Surrogate Worth Trade-Off (SWT) Method -- 14.6 Multiple Objectives -- 14.7 Applying the MSM -- 14.8 Example Problems -- References -- 15. Principles and Guidelines for Project Risk Management -- 15.1 Introduction -- 15.2 Definitions and Principles of Project Risk Management -- 15.3 Project Risk Management Methods -- 15.4 Aircraft Development Example -- 15.5 Quantitative Risk Assessment and Management of Software Acquisition -- 15.6 Critical Factors that Affect Software Nontechnical Risk -- 15.7 Basis for Variances in Cost Estimation.

15.8 Discrete Dynamic Modeling -- 15.9 Summary -- References -- 16. Applying Risk Analysis to Space Missions -- 16.1 Introduction -- 16.2 Overview of Selected Space Missions -- 16.3 Risk Analysis Examples for Selected Space Missions -- 16.4 Hierarchical Holographic Modeling -- 16.5 Risk Filtering, Ranking, and Management -- 16.6 Epilogue -- References -- 17. Risk Modeling, Assessment, and Management of Terrorism -- 17.1 Overview -- 17.2 Risk-Based Methodology for Scenario Tracking, Intelligence Gathering, and Analysis for Countering Terrorism -- 17.3 Inoperability Input-Output Model (IIM) for Complex Interconnected Infrastructures -- References -- 18. Case Studies -- 18.1 Risk Modeling, Assessment, and Management of Lahar Flow Threat -- 18.2 The Statistics of Extreme Events and Six-Sigma Capability -- References -- Appendix: Optimization Techniques -- A.1 Introduction to Modeling and Optimization -- A.2 Classical Unconstrained Optimization Problems -- A.3 Classical Equality Constraint Problem -- A.4 Newton-Raphson Method -- A.5 Linear Programming -- A.6 Dynamic Programming -- A.7 Generalized Nonlinear Programming -- A.8 Multiobjective Decision Trees -- A.9 Derivation of the Expected Value of a Log-Normal Distribution -- A.10 Derivation of the Conditional Expected Value of a Log-Normal Distribution -- A.11 Triangular Distribution: Unconditional and Conditional Expected Values -- A.12 Standard Normal Distribution Probability Table -- References -- Index.