Front Cover -- Advances in Business and Management Forecasting -- Copyright page -- Editorial Advisory Board -- Contents -- List of Contributors -- Part I: Forecasting Applications in Finance -- Components of a Decomposition Forecast of Stock Prices with Excel -- Introduction -- The Models -- Linear Trend -- Moving Averages -- Periodicity -- Shocks -- Conclusions, Recommendations, and Limitations -- References -- Data Source -- Forecasting the Net Asset Value of PRWCX -- Introduction -- PRWCS T. Rowe Price Capital Appreciation Fund: The Moderate Allocation Fund -- Definition of Unit to be Forecast: Net Asset Value (NAV) -- Time Series Forecasting Method -- Exponential Smoothing -- Trend Models -- Decomposition Modeling -- Average Models -- Winter's Method -- ARIMA Model -- Autoregressive Models -- Moving Average Model -- Mixed Autoregressive and Moving Average Models -- Forecasting Results -- References -- Using Prediction Intervals to Improve Information Quality of Bankruptcy Prediction Models -- Introduction -- Prediction (Confidence) Intervals and Hypotheses -- Samples and Data -- Analysis and Results -- Conclusion -- Acknowledgments -- References -- Part II: Forecasting Applications in Operations and Technology -- Comparison of Technological Performance between Digital Single-Lens Reflex Cameras and Mirrorless Cameras -- Introduction -- Research Objective and Scope -- Overall Research Objective -- Scope of the Research -- Type of Cameras Considered -- Units Measured -- Analysis -- Data Gathering -- Methodology -- Results -- Discussion -- Limitations and Future Research -- Conclusion -- References -- Premium for Service Contracts for Damage Protection -- Introduction -- Model Development -- Product Value Distribution -- Service Quality -- Premium Function -- Customer Preferences -- Optimal Premium -- Results -- Conclusions -- References.

Measuring Scale Efficiency in Data Envelopment Analysis Considering Environmental Influences -- Introduction -- Literature Review -- Methodology -- Measuring Technical Efficiency and Scale Efficiency by Using DEA Models -- Five-Stage DEA Model -- Stage 1: BCC Model -- Stage 2: CCR Model -- Stage 3: Using the SFA Model to Decompose Slacks -- Stage 4: Adjusted BCC Model -- Stage 5: Adjusted CCR Model -- Problem Description of Scale Efficiency of Chinese Universities -- Sample and Data Sources -- Selection of Input and Output Indicators -- Selection of Environmental Indicators -- The Degree of Social Needs of Different Subjects -- The Capacity of Universities -- The Proportion of Universities Students of the Total Number -- The Number of Examinees in the Provinces Where the Universities Locate -- Ranking of Universities -- Empirical Analysis -- The Empirical Results of the First Two Stages of the Traditional DEA -- The Results of SFA Regression Analysis -- The Empirical Results After Adjustment -- Development Model and Efficiency Improving Directions of China's Top Universities. -- Summary and Conclusion -- Acknowledgments -- References -- Evaluating a Bayesian Approach to Forecasting Stocking Spare Parts That Require Periodic Replenishment -- Introduction -- Bayesian Approaches to Forecasting Demand -- Bayesian Model Formulation -- Bayesian Theory -- Simulation Study Description Results -- Baseline Demand Simulations for Regular Demand -- Slow Moving or Intermittent Demand Simulations -- Simulation Discussion -- Conclusions -- References -- Part III: Forecasting Methods -- Reducing Bias in Hierarchical Forecasting -- Introduction -- Bias in Hierarchical Forecasting -- Case Study -- Stage 1: Development of the Corrected Forecasts for Months 2-12 -- Stage 2: Development of the Corrected Segment Forecasts for Months 13-18.

Stage 3: Development of the Composite Forecasts for Months 13-18 -- Discussion -- References -- Metrics for and Analysis of Variables for Wiki Use: A Case Study -- Introduction -- Wikis -- Outline of This Paper -- Some Previous Research on Wikis -- Research using Wikis in Enterprises -- Wiki Metrics -- Accenture and Accenture's Use of Wikis -- Arthur Andersen and Accenture (Jeffery, 2010 and Wikipedia) -- Accenture's Use of Wikis (Peeters, 2009) -- Data -- Data Overview and Use Behavior -- Three Models from Different Potential Perspectives -- Findings -- Correlation Analysis -- Regression Analysis -- Discussion and Comparison to Other Data -- Summary, Contributions and Extensions -- Contributions -- Extensions -- Notes -- References -- A Comparison of Seasonal Regression Forecasting Models for the U.S. Beer Import Market -- Introduction -- Purpose -- Seasonal Forecasting and Literature Review -- Import Beer Sales: Extension and Comparison of Seasonal Models -- Semi-Annual -- Quarterly -- Monthly -- Interpretation and Analysis of Regression Outputs -- Construction of the Seasonal Regression Equation and Error Calculation -- Conclusions, Recommendations, and Limitations -- References -- Data Source.