Cover -- Title Page -- Copyright -- Contents -- Acknowledgments -- About the Author -- Preamble -- Chapter 1 Physical and Financial Agricultural Markets -- 1.1 Agriculture and the Beginning of Human Sedentarization -- 1.1.1 Some recent numbers -- 1.1.2 The growing role of Africa -- 1.2 The Outlook of Agricultural Commodities Markets -- 1.2.1 Recent mergers and acquisitions -- 1.2.2 'Trading places': from the ABCD to the NOW -- 1.2.3 The physical markets -- 1.2.4 The global flows of commodities -- 1.2.5 Back to the future: a new age for barter -- 1.2.6 The sources of information in agricultural commodity markets -- 1.3 History of Commodity Futures and Spot Markets -- 1.3.1 The actors in financial markets -- 1.3.2 The actors in agricultural commodity exchanges -- 1.3.3 The growth of Futures markets exchanges and the recent mergers -- 1.3.4 Futures markets and price volatility -- 1.3.5 The role of indexes in the creation of efficient commodity spot markets -- 1.3.6 Commodities and numéraire -- 1.4 Shipping and Freight -- 1.4.1 International trade -- 1.4.2 Price formation in freight markets -- Chapter 2 Agricultural Commodity Spot Markets -- 2.1 Introduction -- 2.2 Price Formation in Agricultural Commodity Markets -- 2.3 Volatility in Agricultural Markets -- 2.3.1 Volatility of the price level versus return in agricultural commodity markets -- 2.3.2 Which factors drive volatility? -- 2.3.3 Conclusion -- Chapter 3 Futures Exchanges - Future and Forward Prices - Theory of Storage - The Forward Curve -- 3.1 Major Commodity Exchanges -- 3.2 Forward Contracts -- 3.3 Futures Contracts -- 3.3.1 Definition -- 3.3.2 Exchange of Futures for physicals (EFP) -- 3.4 Relationship between Forward and Futures Prices -- 3.5 Example of a Future Spread -- 3.6 Inventory and Theory of Storage.

3.6.1 Spot and Futures prices volatilities -- 3.6.2 Development of the theory of storage: inventory and prices -- 3.7 The Benefits of Forward Curves -- 3.7.1 Trading strategies around forward curves -- 3.7.2 Example of a seasonality-based Futures spread -- 3.7.3 From linear to convex payoffs -- 3.8 Stochastic Modeling of the Forward Curve -- Chapter 4 Plain Vanilla Options on Commodity Spot and Forward Prices. The Bachelier-Black-Scholes Formula, the Merton Formula, the Black Formula -- 4.1 Introduction -- 4.2 Classical Strategies involving European Calls and Puts -- 4.2.1 Straddle -- 4.2.2 Strangle -- 4.2.3 Call spread or vertical call spread -- 4.2.4 Butterfly spread -- 4.3 Put-Call Parity for a Non-dividend Paying Stock -- 4.4 Valuation of European Calls: the Bachelier-Black-Scholes Formula and the Greeks -- 4.4.1 Consequences of the Black-Scholes formula -- 4.4.2 The Greeks -- 4.5 The Merton (1973) Formula for Dividend-paying Stocks -- 4.6 Options on Commodity Spot Prices -- 4.7 Options on Commodity Futures: the Black (1976) Formula -- 4.8 Monte-Carlo Simulations for Option Pricing -- 4.8.1 The founding result -- 4.8.2 Monte-Carlo methods for plain vanilla options on non-dividend paying stocks -- 4.8.3 Monte-Carlo methods for plain vanilla options on the spot commodity -- 4.9 Implied Volatility, Smile, and Skew in Equity Option Markets -- 4.10 Volatility Smile in Agricultural Commodity Markets -- 4.10.1 Where is the liquidity in agricultural commodity option markets? -- 4.10.2 Extracting the implied volatility from options on commodity Futures -- Chapter 5 Commodity Swaps, Swaptions, Accumulators, Forward-Start, and Asian Options -- 5.1 Swaps and Swaptions -- 5.2 Accumulators -- 5.3 Forward-Start Options (or Calendar Spread Options on the Spot Price).

5.4 Asian Options as Key Instruments in Commodity Markets -- 5.4.1 Approximation of the arithmetic average by a geometric average -- 5.4.2 Approximation of the distribution of the arithmetic average by a log-normal distribution -- 5.4.3 Monte-Carlo simulations for Asian options valuation -- 5.4.4 Exact results (Geman and Yor, 1993) -- 5.5 Trading the Shape of the Forward Curve through Floating-strike Asian Options -- Chapter 6 Exchange, Spread, and Quanto Options in Commodity Markets -- 6.1 Exchange Options -- 6.2 Commodity Spread Options and Their Importance in Commodity Markets -- 6.3 Commodity Quanto Options -- Chapter 7 Grain Cereals: Corn, Wheat, Soybean, Rice, and Sorghum -- 7.1 Introduction -- 7.2 Corn -- 7.3 Wheat -- 7.3.1 Wheat trading -- 7.3.2 Global wheat -- 7.3.3 The wheat supply chain -- 7.4 Soybeans -- 7.5 Rice -- 7.6 Sorghum -- Chapter 8 Sugar, Cocoa, Coffee, and Tea -- 8.1 Sugar -- 8.1.1 Links of sugar with other commodities -- 8.1.2 Sugar trading -- 8.1.3 The European Union -- 8.1.4 Special relations of the EU with other countries -- 8.1.5 The United States -- 8.1.6 Special relations of the USA with other countries -- 8.1.7 Brazil -- 8.1.8 China -- 8.1.9 India -- 8.1.10 Thailand -- 8.1.11 Australia -- 8.1.12 Guatemala and Cuba -- 8.1.13 Sugar cane in Mauritius -- 8.2 Cocoa -- 8.3 Coffee -- 8.4 Tea -- Chapter 9 Cotton, Timber and Wood, Pulp and Paper, Wool -- 9.1 Cotton -- 9.2 Lumber and Wood -- 9.3 Pulp and Paper -- 9.3.1 Pulp NBSK and BHKP indexes -- 9.3.2 Pulp US NBSK index -- 9.3.3 Pulp BHKP China -- 9.3.4 Pulp NBSK China -- 9.3.5 When bank notes go plastic -- 9.4 Wool and Cashmere -- 9.4.1 Cashmere -- 9.4.2 From the Kashmir Goat to high quality yarns -- Chapter 10 Orange Juice, Livestock, Dairy, and Fishery -- 10.1 Orange Juice -- 10.2 Livestock -- 10.2.1 Livestock markets -- 10.2.2 Cattle -- 10.2.3 Hogs.

10.2.4 Pork bellies -- 10.2.5 The US live cattle contract specifications -- 10.2.6 Australia -- 10.2.7 The USA -- 10.3 Dairy -- 10.4 Fish Markets -- 10.5 Poultry and Eggs -- Chapter 11 Rubber, Palm Oil, and Biofuels -- 11.1 Rubber -- 11.2 Palm Oil -- 11.2.1 The oil palm and palm oil -- 11.2.2 Markets -- 11.3 Ethanol, Biofuels, and Biomass -- Chapter 12 Land, Water, and Fertilizers -- 12.1 Land Types, Yields, and Erosion -- 12.1.1 Yield-at-risk -- 12.1.2 Land competition -- 12.1.3 Farmland in the USA -- 12.2 Fertilizers -- 12.2.1 Fertilizer markets -- 12.2.2 Fertilizer Index, corn, and wheat price trajectories over the period 1991 to 2011 -- 12.2.3 Fertilizer producing companies and share price returns over the period 2004 to 2011 -- 12.2.4 A factor model for the share returns of fertilizer firms -- 12.3 Water and its crucial Role in the World Economy -- 12.3.1 The case of Australia, China, and Saudi Arabia -- 12.3.2 The case of Brazil -- 12.3.3 Competition for electricity, water, and land -- 12.4 Projections for the Future of Agriculture -- 12.4.1 Farm insurance -- 12.4.2 Estimating long-term agricultural supply -- 12.4.3 Market concentration -- 12.4.4 Spare capacity -- 12.5 Subsidies and Export Bans -- 12.5.1 Subsidies -- 12.5.2 Export bans -- 12.6 Market-oriented Farming -- 12.6.1 Open wheat market takes root in Canada -- 12.6.2 Kansas City wheat Futures trading coming to an end after 157 years -- 12.6.3 China food needs -- Chapter 13 Infrastructure and Farming Management in the Digital Age -- 13.1 Introduction -- 13.2 Agricultural Infrastructure -- 13.2.1 Total factor productivity -- 13.2.2 Climate change -- 13.2.3 Irrigation and increased productivity -- 13.2.4 Trends in irrigation -- 13.2.5 Storage -- 13.2.6 Grain elevators -- 13.2.7 Soybean crushers -- 13.2.8 The Brave New World of Monsanto.

13.2.9 Infrastructure in sub-Saharan Africa -- 13.2.10 Gabon: after black gold, green gold? -- 13.2.11 Agricultural Transformation Agenda (ATA) in Nigeria -- 13.2.12 Digital age on the farm: prescriptive planting -- 13.2.13 Sugar biofactory for ethanol in Brazil -- 13.2.14 After ethanol, railway, and natural gas -- 13.2.15 From iron ore mining to cattle farming in Australia -- 13.2.16 Robots for cow milking -- 13.2.17 Containers for agricultural commodities -- 13.2.18 Singapore as a hub for refrigeration containers -- 13.2.19 The trip of the banana -- 13.2.20 Energy, water, and infrastructure for DAP and agriculture in Saudi Arabia -- 13.3 Country Risk: the Example of Ukraine in 2014 -- 13.4 Analyzing the Risks Involved in an International Wheat Tender Offer -- 13.5 Weather Risk and Weather Derivatives -- Chapter 14 Investing in Agricultural Commodities, Land, and Physical Assets -- 14.1 Purchase of Commodity Futures -- 14.2 Purchase of Commodity Options and Structured Products -- 14.3 Commodity Index Investing -- 14.3.1 Some prominent commodity indexes -- 14.3.2 How commodity indices are constructed -- 14.3.3 Commodity-linked bonds -- 14.4 Investing in Commodity-related Equities -- 14.5 Investing in Land -- 14.5.1 The US case -- 14.5.2 The world case -- 14.6 Acquisition of Infrastructure and Physical Assets -- 14.6.1 Valuation of a transformation plant using a real options approach -- 14.6.2 DCF approach to the valuation of a transformation plant -- 14.6.3 Valuation of a silo (or an aquifer, or any storage facility) -- 14.7 Conclusion -- Glossary -- References -- Index -- EULA.