Cover -- Contents -- Preface -- Abbreviations used in the text -- 1 Introduction: A Historical Approach -- The idea of cyclical growth -- A historical perspective -- Historical examples -- Imperial Rome -- Tudor and Stuart London -- An illustrative building cycle: London (1714-1900) -- The structure of the book -- 2 Growth and Cycles: The Economic Debate -- The underlying theme -- The growth story -- The classical economists -- The neoclassical revolution -- Technology and growth -- Keynes -- The neoclassical growth model -- Modern growth theory -- Historical dependence -- Historical perspectives on business cycles -- Pioneering studies -- Measuring trend and cycle -- A family of cycles -- Long waves -- Business cycle theory -- Impulse and propagation: Multiplier-accelerator models -- Non-linear models -- Rational expectations -- New Classical theory -- New Keynesian theory -- Summary: Theories of growth and cycles -- 3 The Nature of Building Cycles -- A long and violent cycle -- Historical building cycle research -- The first wave of empirical studies -- Theoretical perspectives -- The post-war empirical tradition -- Three key studies -- Modern property cycle research -- Long cycles: Fact or artifact? -- New perspectives and established traditions -- The formation of market expectations -- The integration of real estate and capital markets -- Globalization and speculative bubbles -- Towards a satisfactory theory of the building cycle -- What we know about building cycles -- A conceptual model of the building cycle -- 4 Building Investment and Economic Growth -- Buildings as means of production -- Investment and technical progress -- Building versus equipment capital -- Cyclical growth -- Building investment as driver of growth -- Building investment and UK growth (1855-2005) -- A growth model with building capital.

The trajectory of US growth (1929-2005) -- Building investment as generator of cycles -- The identification of economic cycles -- UK investment cycles (1855-2005) -- US investment cycles (1901-2005) -- Appendix: The growth model -- 5 Building Investment and Urban Development -- Urban innovation and accumulation -- The city in history -- Urban agglomeration -- The growth of cities -- Transport and suburbanization -- A comparison of UK and US urban development cycles -- The data -- Structural models -- Growth trajectories -- Long cycles -- Cycle phasing -- Explanatory variables -- Cycle histories -- Variations in growth -- The transport-building cycle -- Turning points -- A UK building cycle chronology (1785-2005) -- Long cycles and major cycles -- The first industrial revolution (1785-1856) -- The second industrial revolution (1856-88) -- The age of electricity (1888-1918) -- Inter-war turbulence (1918-44) -- The post-war consumer boom (1944-81) -- The computer age (1981-2008?) -- The London building cycle (1714-2005) -- Middlesex deeds (1714-1900) -- London house-building (1856-2005) -- A London building cycle chronology -- 6 Case Study: The City of London Office Market -- The development of the city economy -- City of capital -- The City in the sixteenth to eighteenth centuries -- The Victorian and Edwardian City -- The inter-war City -- The post-war City -- The growth trajectory of the City economy (1970-2005) -- The City office-building cycle -- Modelling the cycle -- Cycle turning points -- The cycle chronology -- Victorian and Edwardian cycles (1866-1914) -- Inter-war cycles (1921-35) -- Early post-war cycles (1955-79) -- The last two cycles (1979-2005) -- Vintages of City office stock -- Locational clusters -- Building size -- Redevelopment and obsolescence -- Rent formation -- Occupier profiles -- 7 A Simulation Model of the Building Cycle.

Real estate models -- Stock adjustment models -- Rent adjustment models -- Multi-equation models -- Specification of the model -- Underlying assumptions -- Model structure -- Determinants of model behaviour -- Model simulations -- Equilibrium and displacement -- Cycle transmission -- Damped and explosive cycles -- Different construction lags -- Floor and ceiling constraints -- Persistent under- or over-supply -- Alternative rent adjustment processes -- Rent elastic occupier demand -- Elastic depreciation -- Business cycle in demand -- Modelling the City of London office market -- Take-up and occupier demand -- Vacancy change -- Rent adjustment -- Development supply -- Building completions -- 8 Property Cycles in Global Investment Markets -- Instability and growth in real estate investment -- The crash of 2008 -- The property cycle and the business cycle -- Property as an investment medium -- The post-war property cycle in the United Kingdom and United States -- A model of the national property cycle -- The housing market -- The industrial and commercial property market -- The interaction of occupier and investment markets -- The globalization of the property cycle -- The growth of the transnational investment market -- Global cities, global cycle -- The determinants of market behaviour -- Some stylized facts about the global office cycle -- The global diffusion of property innovation -- The rise of the skyscraper -- The spread of the shopping centre -- Into the twenty-first century -- Appendix: An error correction model of the property cycle -- 9 Understanding the Building Cycle -- Building cycles and economic growth -- Cyclical growth -- Technological revolutions -- Historical dependence -- Growth and technical progress -- Building investment and productivity growth -- Technical progress in construction technology.

Building cycles as driver of growth -- Propagation of the building cycle -- The trajectory of building investment -- Impulse and propagation in cycle generation -- A circular transmission process -- Determinants of cyclical behaviour -- A family of building cycles -- The rhythm of post-war cycles -- Building cycles and urban development -- The urban development cycle -- Urban growth and agglomeration -- Innovation and accumulation in urban development -- A self-reinforcing process of metropolitan growth -- The transport-building cycle -- Transport investment and suburbanization -- The urban office economy -- Integration of real estate and capital markets -- Property as an investment medium -- The contradiction between investor and occupier demand -- The cyclical movement of real estate values -- The intensification of the commercial building cycle -- The property cycle and the business cycle -- Speculative boom-bust cycles -- Globalization of the building cycle -- The growth of the transnational investment market -- The international convergence of cycles -- The global office market -- The global office cycle -- The global diffusion of property innovation -- Interactive innovation in retailing -- Into the twenty-first century -- Appendix A. Building Trend and Cycle Analysis -- Appendix B. The Building Cycle Model -- References -- Index -- A -- B -- C -- D -- E -- F -- G -- H -- I -- J -- K -- L -- M -- N -- O -- P -- R -- S -- T -- U -- V -- W -- Y -- Z.