Cover -- Contents -- Foreword -- Acknowledgments -- Abbreviations -- Chapter 1 Global Outlook: The Global Economy in Transition -- Summary and Key Messages -- Recent Developments and Outlook in Major Economies -- Global Trends and Spillovers -- Recent Developments and Outlook in Developing Countries -- Risks to the Outlook -- Policy Challenges -- References -- Boxes -- 1.1 Negative Interest Rates in Europe: A Glance at Their Causes and Implications -- 1.2 Low Oil Prices in Perspective -- 1.3 Recent Developments in Emerging and Developing Country Labor Markets -- Special Feature 1 Hoping for the Best, Preparing for the Worst: Risks around U.S. Rate Liftoff and Policy Options -- Introduction -- How Have Growth Prospects and Policies in Advanced Countries Changed since the Taper Tantrum? -- What Are the Major Risks around the Liftoff? -- What Are Possible Implications of the Liftoff for Emerging Markets? -- What Are the Major Lessons for Emerging Markets from the Taper Tantrum? -- How Have Growth Prospects and Vulnerabilities in Emerging Markets Changed since the Taper Tantrum? -- What Policy Options Are Available to Prepare for Risks around Liftoff? -- Conclusion -- References -- Boxes -- SF1.1 Econometric Analysis of U.S. Yields and Spillovers -- Special Feature 2 After the Commodities Boom: What Next for Low-Income Countries? -- A. Implications of the Recent Decline in Commodity Prices for Commodity Exporting, Low-Income Countries -- B. Recent Developments and Near-Term Outlook in Low-Income Countries -- References -- Chapter 2 Regional Outlooks -- East Asia and Pacific -- Recent Developments -- Outlook -- Risks -- Policy Challenges -- Europe and Central Asia -- Recent Developments -- Outlook -- Risks -- Policy Challenges -- Latin America and the Caribbean -- Recent Developments -- Outlook -- Risks -- Policy Challenges.

Middle East and North Africa -- Recent Developments -- Outlook -- Risks -- Policy Challenges -- South Asia -- Recent Developments -- Outlook -- Risks and Policy Challenges -- Sub-Saharan Africa -- Recent Developments -- Outlook -- Risks -- Policy Challenges -- Boxes -- 2.1 Linkages between China and Sub-Saharan Africa -- References -- Statistical Appendix -- Figures -- 1.1 Global activity -- 1.2 Global trends and policy challenges -- 1.3 United States -- 1.4 United Kingdom -- 1.5 Euro Area -- 1.6 Japan -- 1.7 China -- 1.8 Implications of the European Central Bank's quantitative easing for global financial conditions -- B1.1.1 Negative interest rates in Europe: Context -- B1.1.2 Negative interest rates in Europe: Some consequences -- 1.9 Implications of the European Central Bank's quantitative easing for developing countries -- 1.10 Implications of launch of monetary tightening in the United States -- 1.11 Developing countries' capital flows and borrowing costs -- 1.12 Oil markets -- B1.2.2 Global growth and inflation around oil price declines -- B1.2.3 Financial market developments around oil price declines -- B1.2.4 The new oil map -- 1.13 Oil price volatility and non-oil commodity prices -- 1.14 Global trade -- 1.15 Developing and emerging-market growth -- 1.16 Terms of trade effect on GDP -- 1.17 Developing country currencies -- 1.18 Exchange rates and competitiveness in major emerging economies -- 1.19 Inflation in developing countries -- 1.20 Private debt in developing countries -- 1.21 Risk of a rough awakening -- 1.22 Emerging market credit ratings -- 1.23 Risk of excessive U.S. dollar appreciation -- 1.24 Risk of stagnation and deflation in the Euro Area -- 1.25 Risk of a hard landing in China -- 1.26 Monetary policy in developing countries -- 1.27 Fiscal pressures -- 1.28 Income convergence -- 1.29 Structural reforms.

B1.3.1 Global unemployment rate -- B1.3.2 Unemployment rate in developing and advanced economies -- B1.3.3 Regional unemployment rate -- B1.3.4 Change in employment to population ratio -- B1.3.5 Labor force participation rate -- B1.3.6 Changes in unemployment rate and GDP growth in Great Recession vs. previous recessions in developing economies -- B1.3.7 Estimates of Okun's Law coeffcients for advanced, emerging, and frontier market economies -- B1.3.8 Real GDP growth and change in unemployment rates in developing economies, 2000-14 -- B1.3.9 Estimated informal employment shares in selected countries, 2011 -- B1.3.10 Global average annual real wage growth -- B1.3.11 Real wage growth in selected developing economies -- B1.3.12 Enterprise Survey results on key business constraints, 2013 -- 1.30 Fuel subsidies -- SF1.1 Conditions in advanced countries -- SF1.2 Explaining movements in U.S. bond yields: monetary and real shocks -- SF1.3 A smooth liftoff in light of past episodes? -- SF1.4 U.S. bond yields and capital flows during the taper tantrum -- SF1.5 Market liquidity -- SF1.6 Implications of monetary and real shocks on activity and financial markets in emerging markets -- SF1.7 Surging U.S. yields and capital inflows to emerging and developing countries -- SF1.8 Growth prospects in emerging and developing economies -- SF1.9 Debt, deficits and inflation in emerging markets: Oil exporters vs. oil importers -- SF1.10 Evolution of vulnerabilities in emerging markets since the taper tantrum -- SF1.11 Foreign currency exposure and corporate debt -- SF2.1 Growth in low-income countries -- SF2.2 Trends in commodity prices, exploration and discovery -- SF2.3 Commodity exploration, spending and discoveries in Africa -- SF2.4 Impact on growth, production, and exports -- SF2.5 Impact on investment -- SF2.6 Employment and poverty.

SF2.7 Public sector receipts and spending -- SF2.8 Commodity dependence: An Achilles heel -- SF2.9 Drivers of growth in low-income countries -- SF2.10 Growth prospects -- SF2.11 Vulnerabilities -- 2.1 East Asia and Pacific Regional growth and performance in China -- 2.2 Key exports -- 2.3 Inflation and real exchange rates -- 2.4 Debt -- 2.5 Policy issues -- 2.6 Russian Federation: Growth and oil price -- 2.7 Selected economies, EMBI spreads -- 2.8 Ukraine: Recent developments -- 2.9 Selected economies: Exports by selected destinations (average 2011-14) -- 2.10 Selected economies: Remittances inflows, 2014 -- 2.11 Selected economies: Remittances inflows from Russia -- 2.12 Selected economies: Central bank policy rates -- 2.13 Selected economies: Inflation -- 2.14 Selected economies: Inflation -- 2.15 EU-Central and Southeastern Europe: Drivers of growth -- 2.16 Selected economies: Real effective exchange rates -- 2.17 Foreign currency exposure and foreign currency vulnerability indicators, 2013 -- 2.18 Unemployment, 2013 -- 2.19 Non-performing loans (NPL) ratios -- 2.20 Net foreign liabilities, 2014 -- 2.21 Regional GDP growth -- 2.22 Prices of key commodity exports -- 2.23 Export shares of key commodity exports, 2013 -- 2.24 Average annual inflation-headline and core -- 2.25 Monthly gross capital flows to LAC region -- 2.26a Exchange rate against U.S. dollar -- 2.26b Real effective exchange rates -- 2.27 Central bank policy rates -- 2.28 Regional medium-term growth outlook -- 2.29 Share of regional merchandise exports to the U.S., EU, and China, 2013 -- 2.30 FDI into selected countries by source country, 2012 -- 2.31 Consensus forecasts six years ahead, 2009-15 -- 2.32 Federal Reserve Board Vulnerability Index, 2014 -- 2.33 Overall fiscal balance as a share of GDP -- 2.34 Share oil/gas revenue in total government budget, 2013.

2.35 Global rankings on quality and extensiveness of infrastructure, 2014-15 -- 2.36 Oil production -- 2.37 Oil revenues, 2014 -- 2.38 Nominal effective exchange rates -- 2.39 Inflation -- 2.40 Share of exports to GCC and Euro Area countries, 2013 -- 2.41 Public debt and deficits, 2014 -- 2.42 Unemployment rate and employment growth, 2013 -- 2.43 Business climate: distance to frontier -- 2.44 Growth in tourism arrivals -- 2.45 India: Real GDP growth -- 2.46 India: Industrial production and credit -- 2.47 Export growth -- 2.48 Goods trade balance -- 2.49 Exchange rates against the U.S. dollar -- 2.50 Nominal effective exchange rates -- 2.51 Inflation -- 2.52 Government finances -- 2.53 Investment -- 2.54 India: Impaired loans -- 2.55 Non-performing loans -- 2.56 Credit growth -- 2.57 Fiscal vulnerability -- 2.58 Commodity prices -- 2.59 Nigerian naira -- 2.60 Exchange rates -- 2.61 Inflation -- 2.62 Real effective exchange rates -- 2.63 Sovereign bond spreads -- 2.64 Eurobond issuance -- 2.65 GDP growth outlook -- B2.1.1 Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa's trade flows, by partner, 2000-13 -- B2.1.2 Sub-Saharan Africa's trade flows with China, 2013 -- B2.1.3 Sub-Saharan Africa's commodity exports to major trading partners, 2013 -- B2.1.4 Cumulative Chinese foreign direct investment in Sub-Saharan Africa -- B2.1.5 Chinese and U.S. foreign direct investment in Africa -- B2.1.6 Chinese foreign direct investment in Africa, by sector, 2012 -- B2.1.7 SSA manufacturing exports to China -- B2.1.8 Distribution of aid and development financing flows from China -- B2.1.9 Chinese development assistance and bilateral aid from OECD countries to Sub-Saharan Africa -- B2.1.10 Development assistance to Sub-Saharan Africa, 2013 -- B2.1.11 Bilateral aid from OECD countries to Sub-Saharan Africa, by sector, 2013.

B2.1.12 Contributions to growth in gross domestic product in Sub-Saharan Africa.