Cover -- Title Page -- Copyright -- Preface -- Contents -- Figures -- Tables -- Executive Summary -- Acknowledgments -- Abbreviations -- CHAPTER ONE: Introduction -- Origin and Focus of Project -- Research Question, Design, and Approach -- Structure of the Document -- CHAPTER TWO: Urbanization Trends in Pakistan -- Urbanization Is Increasing -- Urbanization Is Concentrated in a Small Number of Very Large Cities -- Urbanization Is Particularly Concentrated in Punjab, Secondarily in Sindh -- Urbanization as Fluid Phenomenon: Floating Populations -- Pakistanis in Gulf as a Major "City" -- Urbanization, Public Services, and Economic Opportunities -- CHAPTER THREE: Karachi, Lahore, Quetta: A Tale of Three Cities -- Karachi: Pakistan's "Maximum City" -- Lahore: Punjab's Heartland -- Quetta: View from the Periphery -- CHAPTER FOUR: The Political Environment -- Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz -- Pakistan People's Party -- Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf -- Muttahida Qaumi Movement -- Islamist Parties -- Awami National Party -- Pakistan Muslim League-Quaid-i-Azam -- CHAPTER FIVE: Security Considerations -- Increasing Urbanization May Fuel Anti-American Sentiment -- Increasing Urbanization May Fuel Radical Transnational Islamist Groups -- Increasing Urbanization Is Likely to Change the Dynamic of Counterterrorism -- Demographic Shifts Are Likely to Make Karachi a Potential Site for Increased Terrorism and Anti-American Extremist Operations -- Demographic Shifts Are Less Likely to Produce Such Outcomes in Lahore or Quetta -- Demography and Urbanization Are Unlikely to Dislodge the PML-N/PPP Duopoly from Control of Pakistan's Central Government and Most Provincial Governments -- Demography and Urbanization Are Unlikely to Bring Islamist Parties to Power at the Center or in Punjab and Sindh.

Demography and Urbanization Are Likely to Increase Popular Demand for Political Reform-With Both Positive and Potentially Adverse Impacts on U.S. Security Interests -- CHAPTER SIX: Lessons for the Future -- Conclusions -- Projections on the Course of Pakistani Politics -- Demography Is Not Destiny -- There Are No Game-Changers on the Horizon -- The X-Factor in the Equation Is Popular Demand for Governance -- APPENDIX: Most Populous Cities -- References -- Back Cover.