Cover -- Half-Title -- Title -- Copyright -- Dedication -- Contents -- Contributors -- Preface -- Part I Climate system science -- Introduction -- 1 The concept of climate sensitivity: history and development -- 1.1 Introduction -- 1.2 History of the climate sensitivity concept (CSC) -- 1.3 Recent developments -- 1.4 Future perspectives -- 1.5 Concluding remarks -- Acknowledgements -- References -- 2 Effect of black carbon on mid-troposphere and surface temperature trends -- 2.1 Introduction -- 2.2 Observed surface and mid-troposphere temperature trends -- 2.3 Modeled trends and the effects of carbonaceous aerosols -- 2.4 Results and discussion -- 2.5 Conclusions -- Acknowledgements -- References -- 3 Evaluating the impacts of carbonaceous aerosols on clouds and climate -- 3.1 Introduction -- 3.2 Model description -- 3.3 Aerosol indirect effect on warm clouds -- 3.3.1 Black carbon aerosol effects on clouds -- 3.3.2 Aerosol effects on convective clouds -- 3.3.3 Regional impacts of aerosols on clouds and climate -- Black carbon aerosol effects on regional climate -- Effects of biomass aerosols over Amazonia -- 3.4 Conclusion -- Acknowledgements -- References -- 4 Probabilistic estimates of climate change: methods, assumptions and examples -- 4.1 Introduction to approaches to estimating future climate change -- 4.2 State-of-the-art climate models -- 4.3 Sensitivity to parameters, parameterizations and models -- 4.4 Statistical estimation using observational constraints -- 4.4.1 Introduction to components of an estimation problem -- 4.4.2 Modeled climate -- Modeled climate response to forcing -- Climate forcing: observations and modeling -- Modeled climate variability -- 4.4.3 Modeled observations -- 4.4.4 Statistical estimation: methods, assumptions and examples -- 4.5 Conclusions -- References.

5 The potential response of historical terrestrial carbon storage to changes in land use, atmospheric CO2, and climate -- 5.1 Introduction -- 5.2 Methods -- 5.2.1 The model -- 5.2.2 The data -- 5.2.3 Model simulation experiments -- 5.3 Results -- 5.3.1 Net land-atmosphere carbon flux -- 5.3.2 Climate and CO2 fertilization feedbacks -- 5.3.3 Land use emissions -- 5.4 Discussion -- Acknowledgements -- References -- 6 The albedo climate impacts of biomass and carbon plantations compared with the CO2 impact -- 6.1 Introduction -- 6.2 Scenarios and assumptions -- 6.2.1 Scenario development -- 6.2.2 Geographic potential for biomass and carbon plantations -- 6.3 Description of models and further specification of scenario experiments -- 6.3.1 IMAGE-2.2 model and experiment set-up -- 6.3.2 The IMAGE energy model TIMER -- 6.3.3 The IMAGE terrestrial models -- 6.3.4 The three land-use change experiments with IMAGE -- 6.3.5 ECBilt-CLIO model and experiment set-up -- 6.4 Impacts of plantations on CO2, albedo and climate -- 6.4.1 Impacts on CO2 -- 6.4.2 Impacts on albedo -- 6.4.3 Impacts on climate -- 6.5 Discussion and conclusions -- References -- 7 Overshoot pathways to CO2 stabilization in a multi-gas context -- 7.1 Introduction -- 7.2 Future CO2, CH4 and N2O concentrations -- 7.3 Implications for CO2 emissions -- 7.4 Temperature and sea-level implications -- 7.5 Conclusions -- References -- 8 Effects of air pollution control on climate: results from an integrated global system model -- 8.1 Introduction -- 8.2 A chemistry primer -- 8.3 Integrated Global System Model -- 8.4 Numerical experiments -- 8.4.1 Effects on concentrations -- 8.4.2 Effects on ecosystems -- 8.4.3 Economic effects -- 8.4.4 Effects on temperature and sea level -- 8.5 Summary and conclusions -- Acknowledgements -- References -- Part II Impacts and adaptation -- Introduction -- References.

9 Dynamic forecasts of the sectoral impacts of climate change -- 9.1 Introduction -- 9.2 Climate models -- 9.3 Impact model -- 9.4 Results -- 9.5 Conclusion -- Acknowledgements -- References -- 10 Assessing impacts and responses to global-mean sea-level rise -- 10.1 Introduction -- 10.2 Sea-level rise, impacts and responses -- 10.3 Regional to global assessments -- 10.3.1 Impact analyses -- Coastal flooding -- Coastal wetlands -- 10.3.2 Economic analyses -- Direct cost estimates -- Economy-wide impact estimates -- Adaptation analysis -- 10.4 Sub-national to national assessments -- 10.4.1 National-scale flood risk analysis -- 10.4.2 Sub-national-scale analysis -- 10.5 Discussion/conclusion -- Acknowledgements -- References -- 11 Developments in health models for integrated assessments -- 11.1 Introduction -- 11.2 Projecting the health impacts of climate change -- 11.2.1 Individual disease models -- 11.2.2 Applying a quantitative relationship between socio-economic development and malaria -- 11.2.3 Global Burden of Disease study -- 11.3 Projecting the health benefits of controlling greenhouse gas emissions -- 11.4 Projecting the economic costs of the health impacts of climate change -- 11.5 Health transitions -- 11.5.1 Population health model -- 11.6 Future directions in the development of health impact models -- 11.7 Conclusions -- References -- 12 The impact of climate change on tourism and recreation -- 12.1 Introduction -- 12.2 The importance of climate and weather for tourism and recreation -- 12.2.1 Attitudinal studies -- 12.2.2 Behavioral studies -- 12.3 The impact of climate change on tourism and recreation -- 12.3.1 Qualitative impact studies -- 12.3.2 Impact on the supply of tourism services -- 12.3.3 Impact on climatic attractiveness -- 12.3.4 The impact on demand -- 12.3.5 Impact on global tourism flows -- 12.4 Discussion and conclusion.

Acknowledgements -- References -- 13 Using adaptive capacity to gain access to the decision-intensive ministries -- 13.1 Introduction -- 13.2 The state of knowledge about adaptation in 2004 -- 13.3 Some insights from the economics literature -- 13.4 Opening the doors to the decision-intensive ministries -- 13.5 Concluding remarks -- Acknowledgements -- References -- 14 The impacts of climate change on Africa -- 14.1 Background -- 14.2 The analytical framework -- 14.3 Results -- 14.4 Conclusion -- References -- Part III Mitigation of greenhouse gases -- Introduction -- 15 Bottom-up modeling of energy and greenhouse gas emissions: approaches, results, and challenges to inclusion of end-use technologies -- 15.1 Introduction -- 15.2 Bottom-up assessment structure and models -- 15.3 Accounting models: salient results -- 15.4 Other bottom-up models: costs and carbon emissions projections -- 15.5 Key challenges in the bottom-up modeling approach -- 15.5.1 Conceptual framework: factors, potentials, and transaction costs -- 15.5.2 Empirical evidence of the influence of factors -- Accounting for transaction costs -- Accounting for technological change -- Inclusion of non-energy benefits -- Aggregation over time, regions, sectors, and consumers -- 15.6 Summary -- References -- 16 Technology in an integrated assessment model: the potential regional deployment of carbon capture and storage in the context of global CO2 stabilization -- 16.1 Introduction -- 16.2 A regionally disaggregated CO2 storage potential -- 16.3 Analysis cases -- 16.4 Modeling tools -- 16.5 The reference scenario -- 16.6 Carbon dioxide concentrations and the global value of carbon -- 16.7 The regional marginal cost of storage -- 16.8 The regional pattern of cumulative CO2 storage over the twenty-first century -- 16.9 Technology choice and regional storage -- 16.10 The economic value of CCS.

16.11 Final remarks -- Acknowledgements -- References -- 17 Hydrogen for light-duty vehicles: opportunities and barriers in the United States -- 17.1 Underlying energy policy issues -- 17.2 Hydrogen: an emerging energy carrier? -- 17.3 Hydrogen for light duty vehicles: the opportunity -- 17.3.1 Unit carbon dioxide releases of hydrogen production technologies -- 17.3.2 Unit costs of hydrogen production technologies -- 17.3.3 Three scenarios of vehicle technology adoption -- Light duty vehicles in the three scenarios -- Fuel use by light duty vehicles in the three scenarios -- Carbon dioxide emissions by light duty vehicles in the three scenarios -- 17.4 Hydrogen for light duty vehicles: the barriers -- 17.4.1 Demand-side technology barriers in vehicles -- 17.4.2 Supply-side technology barriers -- 17.4.3 Fueling cost barriers hydrogen to production -- 17.4.4 Fueling cost barriers: hydrogen retailing/other infrastructure -- 17.4.5 Resource limitations -- Natural gas supply and demand -- Resources for geological storage -- Land for biomass -- Coal industry expansion -- 17.4.6 Other barriers to consumer adoption -- 17.4.7 Competitive technologies -- 17.5 In summary -- Acknowledgements -- References -- 18 The role of expectations in modeling costs of climate change policies -- 18.1 Introduction -- 18.2 Modeling with perfect foresight -- 18.2.1 Basic structure of the multi-region national model -- 18.2.2 Data -- 18.2.3 Benchmarking -- 18.2.4 Sectoral disaggregation -- 18.2.5 Time horizon -- 18.2.6 Policy instruments -- 18.2.7 Representation of production and consumption decisions -- 18.2.8 Representation of international trade -- 18.2.9 MRN's personal automobile use component -- 18.2.10 Tax instruments -- 18.2.11 Welfare measurement -- 18.3 Defining policy scenarios for the long term -- 18.3.1 Background.

18.3.2 Three alternative extensions of the McCain-Lieberman Phase I cap.