Criminal Careers and "Career Criminals": -- Copyright -- Contents -- Preface -- Criminal Careers and "Career Criminals" -- Summary -- THE CRIMINAL CAREER APPROACH -- FINDINGS ON CRIMINAL CAREERS -- Participation in Offending -- Measures of Participation -- Risk Factors in Criminal Participation -- Individual Frequencies for Active Offenders -- Overall Rates -- Demographic Differences in λ -- Other Factors Related to λ -- Trends in Seriousness -- Career Length -- USE OF CRIMINAL CAREER INFORMATION IN CRIMINAL JUSTICE DECISION MAKING -- Career Modification -- Incapacitation -- PREDICTION-BASED CLASSIFICATION RULES -- Existing Decision Practices -- Ethical Limitations -- Methodological Issues -- Specific Classification Rules -- Record-Keeping Implications -- AN AGENDA FOR FUTURE RESEARCH -- 1 Introduction: Studying Criminal Careers -- THE CRIMINAL CAREERS CONCEPT -- CRIME CONTROL POLICIES -- Knowledge for Policy -- Classification of Offenders -- Ethical Considerations -- DIMENSIONS OF CRIMINAL CAREERS -- Participation -- Individual Frequency Rates, Seriousness, and Duration -- Basic Definitions and Symbols -- Basic Model of a Criminal Career -- Extensions of the Basic Model -- USING THE CRIMINAL CAREER PARADIGM -- Interpreting Aggregate Crime Rates -- Demographic Correlates of Criminal Careers -- Incapacitation, Rehabilitation, and Deterrence -- SCOPE OF THE PANEL'S REPORT -- 2 Participation in Criminal Careers -- STUDY DESIGNS AND PARTICIPATION ESTIMATES -- PARTICIPATION AMONG MALES -- Official-Record Estimates -- Self-Report Estimates -- PARTICIPATION ESTIMATES BY SEX, RACE, AND AGE -- Sex -- Race -- Age -- OTHER FACTORS ASSOCIATED WITH PARTICIPATION -- Family Influences -- Parenting -- Parental Criminality -- Family Disruption -- Family Size and Structure -- Early Antisocial Behavior -- Social Class -- School Performance and Intelligence.

Substance Abuse -- Employment -- Peer Group Influences -- SUMMARY -- 3 Dimensions of Active Criminal Careers -- INDIVIDUAL FREQUENCY RATES -- Arrest Frequencies (μ) by Crime Type -- Offending Frequencies (λ) By Crime Type -- Inferring λ from μ -- The Rand Inmate Surveys -- National Youth Survey -- Estimates of λ -- Variations in λ by Sex, Age, and Race -- Sex -- Age -- Race -- Other Factors Associated with Variations in Frequency Rates -- Age at Onset of Criminal Activity -- Drug Use -- Employment -- Previous Criminal Involvement -- Summary -- SERIOUSNESS -- Types of Studies -- Changes in Offense Mix -- General Offense-Switching Patterns -- Race -- Sex -- Age -- Offense Clusters -- Specialization -- Age -- Offense Type -- Sex -- Race -- Escalation -- TERMINATION AND LENGTH OF CRIMINAL CAREERS -- Types of Studies -- Persistence by Delinquents into Adult Careers -- Measuring Career Length by Number of Arrests -- Measuring Career Length in Years -- CONCLUSION -- 4 Methodological Issues in Criminal Career Research -- OBSERVATIONAL APPROACHES: SELF-REPORTS AND OFFICIAL RECORDS -- Self-Reports -- Official Records -- Potential for Synthesis of Observational Methods -- SAMPLING ISSUES -- USE OF COHORT AND CROSS-SECTIONAL DATA -- PROBLEMS OF CONFOUNDED EFFECTS -- EXPLICIT MODELS OF OFFENDING -- 5 Crime Control Strategies Using Criminal Career Knowledge -- STRATEGIES TO PREVENT PARTICIPATION -- Experimental Evaluations of Preventive Interventions -- Interventions with the Family -- Preschool Programs -- Other Interventions -- Summary: Preventive Interventions -- CAREER MODIFICATION STRATEGIES -- Career Modification: Community-Based and Family Treatment Programs -- Juveniles -- Adults -- Summary: Community-Based and Family Treatment Programs -- Career Modification: Substance Abuse Treatment -- Career Modification: Interventions to Improve Employment Status.

Occupational Skills Training: Job Corps -- Postprison Assistance -- INCAPACITATION STRATEGIES -- Collective Incapacitation -- Selective Incapacitation -- Ethical Concerns -- Sentences Based on Offender Characteristics: The Rand Inmate Survey Scale -- Parole Release Based on Offender Characteristics: The Salient Factor Score -- Charge-Based Sentencing Policies -- Operational Issues in Assessing Alternative Selective Incapacitation Policies -- Summary: Incapacitation Strategies -- TECHNICAL NOTE -- A Model of Incapacitation -- Applying the Model to Estimate the Effects of a Collective Incapacitation Policy -- Applying the Model to Estimate the Effects of a Selective Incapacitation Policy -- 6 Use of Criminal Career Information in Criminal Justice Decision Making -- INTRODUCTION -- CRIMINAL CAREER PERSPECTIVES IN CRIMINAL JUSTICE DECISION MAKING -- Police Decisions -- Prosecution -- Decision Making in the Absence of Career Criminal Units -- Career Criminal Unit Evaluations -- Pretrial Release -- Sentencing -- Parole Release -- CONCLUSIONS -- ISSUES IN PREDICTION-BASED CLASSIFICATION -- Introduction -- Ethical Issues -- Ethical Considerations in Selecting Candidate Risk Factors -- Developing Classification Rules -- Defining the Criterion Variable -- Selecting and Weighting Variables -- Defining the Classification Rule -- Validating-The Predictive Relationship -- Issues in Transferring Classification Rules -- EXPLICIT CLASSIFICATION SCALES -- Rand Inmate Survey Scale -- Salient Factor Score -- Iowa Risk Assessment Instrument -- Proposed Inslaw Scale -- Summary -- ADULT, JUVENILE, AND NON-JUSTICE SYSTEM RECORDS AND THEIR INTEGRATION -- Adult Records -- Juvenile Records -- Other Records -- CONCLUSIONS -- 7 An Agenda for Future Research -- BACKGROUND -- A LONGITUDINAL STUDY OF CRIMINAL CAREERS -- SPECIFIC RESEARCH QUESTIONS.

Research on Intervention Strategies -- Preventive Interventions -- Career Modification Strategies -- Selective Incapacitation -- Individual Deterrent Effects -- Measurement of Criminal Career Dimensions and Their Correlates -- Individual Crime Rates -- Group Offending -- Career Length -- Participation -- New Directions in Measurement and Modeling -- SUPPORTIVE ORGANIZATIONAL ARRANGEMENTS -- Continuation and Expansion of the Crime Control Theory Program -- Criminal Career Data Repository -- Appendix A Participation in Criminal Careers -- INTRODUCTION -- Obstacles to the Understanding and Measurement of Pervasiveness -- Importance of Participation -- A Conceptual Framework for Offender Participation -- ESTIMATES OF CRIMINAL PARTICIPATION -- Background -- Scope of Literature Review -- Types of Studies and Data Sources -- Estimates of Criminal Participation by Age 18 -- The Philadelphia Cohorts -- Other U.S. Longitudinal Studies -- U.S. Life-Table Analyses -- Analyses of Multiple Data Bases -- British Studies -- Criminal Participation by Older Ages, Including Lifetime -- U.S. Arrest Projections -- U.S. Longitudinal Studies -- Foreign Studies -- Criminal Participation by High School Age -- Self-Report Studies -- Official-Record Studies -- Current Participation Rates -- National Youth Survey -- Youth-In-Transition Project -- Self-Reports by Cross-Section Samples -- Summary of Participation Estimates -- Participation by Age 18 -- Lifetime Participation -- Self-Report Estimates -- FACTORS ASSOCIATED WITH PARTICIPATION -- Sex and Participation -- Race and Participation -- Age and Participation -- Other Factors Associated with Participation -- Socioeconomic Status -- Family Structure and Disruptions -- Other Family Influences -- Family Members' Criminal Behavior -- Early Antisocial Behavior -- School Performance and Intelligence -- Miscellaneous Attributes.

CONCLUSION -- Appendix B Research On Criminal Careers: Individual Frequency Rates and Offense Seriousness -- INTRODUCTION -- INDIVIDUAL OFFENDING FREQUENCIES FOR ACTIVE OFFENDERS -- Distinguishing Individual Frequency Rates from Aggregate Incidence Rates -- Review of Estimates of Individual Frequency Rates -- Estimating λ from Self-Reports: The Rand Inmate Surveys -- Estimating Individual Frequency Rates from Arrest Histories -- Alternative Estimates of Individual Offending Frequencies -- Summary -- Methodological Issues in Estimating Individual Frequency Rates -- Biases in Offender Samples: Differences in Sampling Probabilities -- Biases in Offender Samples: The Problem of Low Response Rates to Self-Report Surveys -- Obtaining Valid Frequency Estimates from Self-Reports -- Obtaining Valid Frequency Estimates from Official Records -- Measurement Problems in Developing Individual Frequency Estimates -- A Sampling Strategy for Detecting High-Rate Offenders -- Explicit Behavioral Models of Offending -- OFFENSE SERIOUSNESS DURING CRIMINAL CAREERS -- Review of Empirical Research -- Early U.S. Studies -- Analyses Using Transition Matrices -- Methodological Issues in Analyzing Offense Seriousness -- Requirement for Large Sample Size -- Reliance on Official Records -- Biases Associated with Sample Selection -- Role of Frequency Rates, Career Length, and Incapacitation in Switching Patterns -- Alternatives to Simple Markov Models -- Appendix C Workshop on Research on Criminal Careers: Program and Participants -- Appendix D Biographical Sketches, Panel Members and Staff -- References -- Index.