COVER -- PREFACE -- CONTENTS -- FIGURES -- TABLES -- SUMMARY -- ACKNOWLEDGMENTS -- ABBREVIATIONS -- Chapter One - THE CHALLENGE OF LONG-TERM POLICY ANALYSIS -- QUANTITATIVE LTPA MAY NOW BE POSSIBLE -- THE CHALLENGE OF GLOBAL SUSTAINABLEDEVELOPMENT -- SURPRISE: THE CONSTANT ELEMENT -- ORGANIZATION OF THIS REPORT -- Chapter Two - A HISTORY OF THINKING ABOUT THE FUTURE -- NARRATIVES: MIRRORS OF THE PRESENT, VISIONS OFTHE FUTURE -- GROUP NARRATIVE PROCESSES: DELPHI AND FORESIGHT -- SIMULATION MODELING -- FORMAL DECISION ANALYSIS UNDER CONDITIONS OFDEEP UNCERTAINTY -- SCENARIOS: MULTIPLE VIEWS OF THE FUTURES -- ASSESSING THE STATE OF THE ART -- Chapter Three - ROBUST DECISIONMAKING -- DECISIONMAKING UNDER CONDITIONS OF DEEPUNCERTAINTY -- CONSIDER ENSEMBLES OF SCENARIOS -- SEEK ROBUST STRATEGIES -- EMPLOY ADAPTIVE STRATEGIES -- COMBINE MACHINE AND HUMAN CAPABILITIES INTERACTIVELY -- CONCLUDING THOUGHTS -- Chapter Four - A FRAMEWORK FOR SCENARIO GENERATION -- THE CHALLENGE OF GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTALSUSTAINABILITY -- THE "XLRM" FRAMEWORK -- Chapter Five - IMPLEMENTING ROBUST DECISIONMAKING -- OVERVIEW: INTERACTIVE ANALYSIS OF SUSTAINABLEDEVELOPMENT -- LANDSCAPES OF PLAUSIBLE FUTURES -- NO FIXED STRATEGY IS ROBUST -- EXPLORING NEAR-TERM MILESTONES -- IDENTIFYING A ROBUST STRATEGY -- CHARACTERIZING IRREDUCIBLE RISKS -- CONFRONTING SURPRISE IN SUSTAINABLEDEVELOPMENT -- Chapter Six - POLICY-RELEVANT LONG-TERM POLICY ANALYSIS -- BUILDING POLICY-RELEVANT SCENARIO GENERATORS -- IMPROVED NAVIGATION -- A DIVERSITY OF MEASURES AND VALUES -- ENGAGING THE COMMUNITY OF STAKEHOLDERS -- IMPROVING LONG-TERM DECISIONMAKING -- Chapter Seven - CONCLUSION: MOVING PAST FAMILIAR SHORES -- Appendix A - DESCRIPTION OF THE WONDERLAND SCENARIOGENERATOR -- Appendix B - ASSESSING ROBUST STRATEGIES -- BIBLIOGRAPHY.