Cover -- Title Page -- Contents -- Foreword -- Contributors -- Acknowledgments -- Background Papers -- Acronyms and Abbreviations -- CHAPTER 1 Introduction: Dancing with Giants -- Introduction -- Economic Growth -- Putting the Giants in Perspective -- Accounting for Growth -- International Trade -- Trade Expansion -- Industrial Geography: The Evolution of Comparative Advantage -- General Equilibrium -- International Financial Integration -- Growth and the Environment -- Inequalities -- Investment Climate and Governance -- Dance Steps: Responses to the Rise of China and India -- Notes -- CHAPTER 2 China and India Reshape Global Industrial Geography -- Introduction -- Large Domestic Markets -- Two Rapidly Industrializing Economies -- China Ascending -- What Is India's Model for Catching Up? -- Software and IT-enabled Services -- Other Services -- Prospects of Key Manufacturing Industry -- Textiles and Clothing -- White and Brown Goods -- China -- India -- Pharmaceuticals -- Autos and Parts -- Steel -- Electronics -- Concluding Observations -- Notes -- CHAPTER 3 Competing with Giants: Who Wins, Who Loses? -- Introduction -- Developments in Trade -- Exports of Services -- Merchandise Trade -- Methodology and Simulation Design -- Trade Effects of Global Growth, 2005-20 -- Impact of Improvement in Growth and Quality of the Giants' Exports -- Impact of Variety -- Alternative Paths to Improved Growth -- Summary and Conclusions -- Notes -- CHAPTER 4 International Financial Integration of China and India -- Introduction -- Basic Stylized Facts -- Domestic Financial Sector -- China -- India -- Impact on the Global Financial System -- How Important Are China and India as Destinations for External Capital? -- How Important Are China and India as International Investors? -- What Is the Contribution of China and India to Global Imbalances?.

Do China and India Pose Additional Global Risks? -- Concluding Remarks -- Notes -- CHAPTER 5 Energy and Emissions: Local and Global Effects of the Giants' Rise -- Introduction -- Level and Composition of Energy Use and Emissions -- Emerging Concerns -- The Demand for Fossil Fuel -- Domestic Energy Resources -- Transportation -- Energy Use and Emissions, 1980-2004 -- Global Externalities -- Local Externalities -- International Energy Markets -- Simulation of Energy and Emissions Trajectories to 2050 -- Choice of Simulation Models -- Choice of Scenarios -- Reference Scenarios-BAU and BAU-H -- Country Implications -- Global Implications -- Policy Intervention Scenarios-ALT-D, ALT-S, and ALT-S&D -- Country Implications -- Measuring the Extent of Energy and Emissions Decoupling from GDP Growth -- Global Implications -- Additional Investment and Financing Requirements -- Conclusions -- Annex -- Notes -- CHAPTER 6 Partially Awakened Giants: Uneven Growth in China and India -- Introduction -- Clarifying Data Issues -- Ways in Which Growth Has Been Uneven -- Geographically Uneven Growth Has Produced Uneven Progress against Poverty -- Sectorally Uneven Growth Has Increased the Urban-Rural Income Gap and Suppressed Poverty Reduction -- Uneven Growth across Households Has Led to Rising Inequality -- Sectoral and Geographic Unevenness of Growth Has Contributed to Rising Inequality -- Why Growth Was Uneven and Why This Matters -- Good Inequalities -- Bad Inequalities -- Policy Impediments, Biases, and Neglect -- Dynamics: How Good Inequalities Can Turn into Bad Ones -- Perceptions and Tolerance for Inequality: The "Bad" Can Drive Out the "Good" -- Preserving the Good Inequalities and Reducing the Bad Ones -- Defining the Challenge and Avoiding Misdiagnoses -- Learning from the Past: Avoiding False Trade-offs -- Helping the Rural Poor Connect to Markets.

Recent Initiatives -- Conclusions -- Notes -- CHAPTER 7 Governance and Economic Growth -- Introduction -- Fast Growth and Average Governance: Governance Still Matters -- Beneath the Cross-country Data: Political Economy and Governance Outcomes -- Political Change and Governance in India -- Governance and Policy Reforms at the End of the 1970s -- Governance and Policy Reforms in the 1990s -- Chinese Governance in the Post-Mao Era -- The Credibility Puzzle in Chinese Growth -- Intraparty Institutions and Credible Commitments to Investors in the 1980s -- Sources of Investment and Good Governance after 1990 -- Governance Stress in the 1990s -- What the Future Holds -- Notes -- References -- Index -- Back Cover.