Cover -- Contents -- List of Figures -- List of Tables -- Preface -- 1 Living With Uncertainty -- Living in an Uncertain World -- Novelty Breeds Uncertainty -- Risk Versus Uncertainty -- Variability and Indeterminacy -- Uncertain Outcomes -- The Knowledge-Centric View of Uncertainty -- The 'Four Quadrants' Model -- Adopting a Structured Approach to Managing Uncertainty -- 2 Uncertainty in Project and Programme Plans -- Tradeoffs and Affordability -- Project Complexity -- Capacity for Uncertainty -- Accommodating Uncertainty in the Project Plan -- Quantifying, Discussing and Communicating Uncertainty -- 3 Problem-Solving Strategies For Managing Uncertainty -- Confrontation Modes -- Exposing the Underlying Problems Caused by Uncertainty -- Getting to the Root of Uncertainty -- Framing the Underlying Problem -- Finding the Solution -- Idealized Outcomes and Negative Objectives -- 4 Knowledge-Centric Strategies -- Using Knowledge to Visualize the Future -- Mapping What We Know - and What We Don't -- What is Project Knowledge? -- Optimizing Decision-Making -- 5 Anticipation Strategies -- Limits to Forecasting Approaches -- Thinking Forwards, Thinking Backwards -- Building the Forecasting Model -- Working with Scenarios -- Multiple Explorations -- Questions of Scale -- 6 Resilience Strategies -- Agility -- Fast Learning Loops -- The Shewhart Cycle -- The Need for Speed -- Safety Nets -- Trigger Points - Preventing Uncertainty from Escalating -- Maintaining Project Stability -- 7 Learning Strategies -- Learning to Improve -- The Constructive Mindset for Managing Uncertainty -- Developing a Constructive Mindset -- Mindfulness and Vigilance -- Harnessing Creativity -- Final Thoughts -- Glossary -- Bibliography -- Index.