INFLATION:CAUSES AND EFFECTS -- CONTENTS -- PREFACE -- PRACTICES, CHALLENGES AND PROSPECTSOF HRM IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA (SSA) -- Introduction -- Literature Review -- Practices and Challenges of HRMin the Civil Service in Sub-Sahara Africa -- Procurement of Civil Servants in Sub-Sahara Africa -- Attractiveness of the Compensation Programs -- Presence of Clearly Written and Operational HR Procurement Policies -- Effectiveness of the Organizational Arrangement of HR Functions -- Adequacy and Reliability of Personnel Data -- Availability of Qualified and Motivated HR Officers -- Clarity of Organizational Objectives and Strategies -- Commitment of Policy Makers and Senior Civil Servants to Merit Principles -- Image of an Organization -- Continuity of Monitoring and Evaluation of HR Procurement Activities -- Training of Civil Servants in Sub-Saharan Africa -- Presence of Clearly Written and Operational Training Policies: -- Continuity of Training Needs Assessment (TNA) -- Presence of Written and Acceptable Trainee-Selection Procedures -- Linkages of Training Programs to Organizational Objectives -- Linkages of Training Programs to Other HR Policies and Programs -- Capacity of a Government to Finance Training Programs -- Commitment of the Policy Makers and Senior Civil Service Managers toTraining -- Conduciveness of the Working Condition (Transfer of Training) -- Continuity of Monitoring and Evaluation of Training Programs -- Utilization of Civil Servants in Sub-Saharan Africa -- Compensation Management Practices -- Employee Performance Appraisal Practices -- Promotion Policies and Practices -- Placement and Clarity of Job Descriptions -- Concluding Remarks -- References -- ACCURACY AND RATIONALITY OF JAPANESE CPIFORECASTERS* -- Abstract -- 1. Introduction -- 2. Data -- 3. Relative Accuracy -- 3.1. Benchmark Forecasts -- 3.2. The Descriptive Statistics.

3.3. The Encompassing Test -- 3.4. Generalized Loss Function -- 3.5. Correlations of Forecast Accuracy among Different Forecast Spans -- 4. Rationality -- 4.1. Tests for Unbiasedness -- 4.2. Tests for Efficiency -- 4.3. Tests for Martingale -- 4.4. Summary of the Rationality Tests -- 5. Consensus Forecast -- 5.1. Forecast Accuracy -- 5.2. The Encompassing Test for the Consensus Forecast -- 5.3. Rationality of the Consensus Forecast -- 6. Conclusions -- References -- THE NONPARAMETRIC TIME-DETRENDEDFISHER EFFECT -- Abstract -- 1. Introduction -- 2. Univariate Analysis - Modeling Inflation and Nominal InterestRates -- 3. Parametric and Nonparametric VAR Models -- 3.1. The Parametric Model -- 3.2. The Nonparametric Model -- 3.3. Testing for the Fisher Effect -- 4. Empirical Results -- 4.1. First Sample Period -- 4.2. Second Sample Period -- 5. Conclusion -- References -- FORECASTING INFLATION USINGSIGNAL PLUS NOISE MODELS -- Abstract -- 1. Introduction -- 2. Empirical Model -- 2.1. State Space Model for Predicting Inflation -- 2.2. Discussions of Model -- 2.3. Estimation Issues -- 3. Empirical Results -- 3.1. Data Sources -- 3.2. Preliminary Data Analysis -- 3.3. Estimation Results -- 3.4. Hypothesis Test -- 3.4.1. Test for Normality -- 3.4.2. Test for Volatility Persistence -- 4. Conclusion -- Appendix A: Sorenson-Alspach Filtering Equations -- References -- PRICE BEHAVIOR AT HIGH INFLATION:EVIDENCE FROM LATIN AMERICA -- Abstract -- 1. Introduction -- 2. Price Data and Variables -- 2.1. Price Data -- 2.2. Variables -- 3. Empirical Evidence -- 4. Inflation Expectations and Non-Linearities -- 5. Conclusion -- Appendix -- References -- WAGE INFLATION AND LABOR MARKET PRESSURE:A PRINCIPAL COMPONENTS APPROACH -- Abstract -- 1. Introduction -- 2. Labor Market Series and a Principal Components Approach -- 3. Estimates of the Wage Phillips Curve.

Indexes of Excess Demand -- Univariate Analysis: The Unemployment Rate and the Active Opening Rate -- Multivariate Analysis: A Principal Components Approach -- The Shape of the Phillips Curve -- Expected Inflation -- Lag Length on Prices (or Wages) -- Estimates of the Wage Phillips Curve -- 4. A Set of Principal Components -- 5. Time-varying Natural Rate of Unemployment(NRU) and Natural Active Opening Rate (NAOR) -- 6. Conclusion -- Appendix -- References -- MACROECONOMIC POLICIES AND INFLATION -- Introduction -- Price Fluctuations -- Summary and Conclusion -- References -- INFLATION PERSISTENCE AND MONETARY POLICYIN AN OPEN ECONOMY SETTING -- Abstract -- 1. Introduction -- 2. Description of the Model -- 3. Inflation Persistence -- 4. Levels of Inflation and Economic Activity -- 5. The Demand or Fiscal Shocks -- 6. The Supply Shocks -- 7. The Foreign Inflationary Shocks -- 8. The Shocks on the Foreign Interest Rate -- 9. Conclusion -- Appendix A: Inflation and Activity -- Appendix B: Determination and Study of the Parameter (b) -- Appendix C: Interest Rate, Inflation and Economic Activity -- References -- ESTIMATION OF ELECTRIC DEMAND IN JAPAN:A BAYESIAN SPATIAL AUTOREGRESSIVE AR(p)APPROACH -- Abstract -- 1. Introduction -- 2. Electric Demand in Japan -- 3. SAR-AR(p) Model -- 4. Posterior Analysis -- 4.1. Joint Posterior Distribution -- 4.2. Posterior Simulation -- 4.2.1. Sampling ˆ -- 4.2.2. Sampling i and ˙2i for i = 1, . . ., n -- 4.2.3. Sampling ˚i for i = 1, . . ., n -- 4.3. The Acceleration of Sampling ˆ Parameter -- 5. Empirical Results -- 5.1. The Weight Matrix -- 5.2. Empirical Results -- 6. Conclusion -- References -- OUTPUT CONTRACTS FOR CENTRAL BANKSIN A MONETARY UNION:A WAY OUT OF THE DEFLATION BIAS -- Abstract -- 1. Introduction -- 2. The Model -- 3. The Results -- 4. Conclusions -- References -- INDEX.