The Unpredictable CERTAINTY -- Copyright -- Preface -- Contents -- 1 Introduction and Summary -- DEFINING THE NATIONAL INFORMATION INFRASTRUCTURE -- DRIVING DEPLOYMENT: BUSINESS TRANSITIONS, BUSINESS MODELS -- THE SIGNIFICANCE OF THE INTERNET -- As a Barometer of Potential -- As a Laboratory for Development of Workable Standards -- As a Basis for Critical Flexibility -- As a Vehicle for New Market Structures -- Whither the Internet? -- REALIZING THE NII'S POTENTIAL-THE USER PERSPECTIVE -- DEPLOYMENT OF INFRASTRUCTURE TECHNOLOGY -- Access -- Flexibility and Interoperability -- Additional Technology Concerns -- User Interaction with Networked Infrastructure -- PUBLIC VERSUS PRIVATE OBJECTIVES -- ORGANIZATION OF THIS REPORT -- NOTES -- 2 Making Technology Work: Individual and Organized End Users -- WHO IS THE END USER? -- WHY THE NII MUST REACH THE HOME -- EVOLVING DEMAND FOR NII CAPABILITIES -- THE END USER AS CONSUMER -- ACCESS DEVICES -- The Personal Computer -- The Television -- Advanced Television -- The Telephone and Other Access Devices -- Toward a Fully Integrated Home System -- WHAT INCREASING USE OF GENERAL-ACCESS DEVICES IMPLIES FOR NETWORKING TECHNOLOGY DEPLOYMENT -- High Data Rates to the End Point -- Adequate Bandwidth in Both Directions -- Multiple-Session Capability -- Continuous Availability of Service -- Real-time, Multimedia Communication -- Nomadicity -- Security -- CONCLUDING OBSERVATIONS -- NOTES -- 3 Where Is the Business Case? -- FACTORS SHAPING INVESTMENT IN INFORMATION INFRASTRUCTURE -- INVESTMENT IN FACILITIES -- The Problem of How Much Bandwidth to Invest In -- Federal Licenses as an Influence on Deployment of New Wireless Systems -- Investing to Achieve Infrastructure Generality -- FROM FACILITIES TO SERVICES AND APPLICATIONS -- Balancing Investment-Software ''Capital".

The Separation of Services from Facilities- Broadening the Potential Content -- THE INTERNET AND ITS USE FOR BUSINESS -- Effects on Provision of Goods and Services -- The Internet-Layering, Incrementalism, and Diversification -- INCREMENTAL INCREASES -- ARRANGEMENTS FOR INTERCONNECTION -- ECONOMIC MODELS -- Usage-based Fees for Communications and Information Services -- Embedded or Domain-specific Services -- The Broadcast Model -- End-User Devices Paid for by Consumers -- The Access Subscription Model -- Payment Models and the Internet Phenomenon -- NOTES -- 4 Technology Options and Capabilities: What Does What, How -- THE CHANGING NATURE OF TECHNOLOGY AND COMMUNICATIONS -- HOW TRENDS IN TECHNOLOGY ARE CHANGING COMMUNICATIONS INFRASTRUCTURE AND SERVICES -- Separation of Infrastructure Facilities and Service Offerings -- Building Services on Each Other -- The Tension Between Supporting Mature and Emerging Services -- RESOLVING THE TENSION: THE INTERNET AS AN EXAMPLE -- The Importance of the Internet -- The Coexistence of New and Mature Services -- CURRENT TECHNOLOGY-EVALUATING THE OPTIONS -- Hybrid Fiber Coaxial Cable -- Fiber to the Curb -- Digital Services and the Telephone Infrastructure -- Data Over the Telephone System -- Asynchronous Transfer Mode -- Local Area Networks -- Wireless -- Broadcasting -- Satellite -- Power Industry as Infrastructure Provider -- The Internet -- Change and Growth -- Transport Infrastructure to Information Infrastructure -- Open Interfaces and Open Standards -- STANDARDS AND INNOVATION IN THE MARKETPLACE -- MANAGEMENT AND CONTROL OF THE INFRASTRUCTURE -- NOTES -- 5 Technology Choices: What Are the Providers Deploying? -- INTRODUCTION -- WIRELINE TELEPHONY -- Summary and Forecasts -- Local Access and the Larger System -- Integrated Services Digital Network -- Telephone Industry Fiber Deployment.

Demand for Telephone Services -- DATA COMMUNICATIONS -- Summary and Forecasts -- Data Services Provided by Telephone Carriers -- Business Networking -- CABLE TELEVISION AND TELEPHONY: ADVANCED SERVICES TO THE HOME -- Summary and Forecasts -- Advanced Cable and Telephone Services to the Home -- ON-LINE SERVICES AND INTERNET ACCESS FOR CONSUMERS -- Summary and Forecasts -- On-line Services and Internet Access -- WIRELESS AND BROADCAST INFRASTRUCTURE -- Summary and Forecasts -- Wireless Telephony -- Wireless Data Networking -- Terrestrial and Satellite Broadcast Television -- Wireless Cable -- Direct Broadcast Satellite -- NOTES -- 6 Public Policy and Private Action -- INTRODUCTION -- Public-Private Engagement -- NII Systems Issues -- DEFINING ROLES FOR GOVERNMENT -- Regulation, Rules, and Norms -- Protecting the NII: Ethics and Mechanisms -- Security, Reliability, and Architecture -- Government as User and Service Provider -- Technology Development Through R&D -- Architecture and Networking -- Information Management and Ease of Use -- Standards -- International Issues -- Systems Data and Analysis for NII Assessment -- Government as Convenor -- CONCLUSIONS -- NOTES -- Bibliography -- Appendixes -- A Workshop Participants and Agenda -- Participants -- Agenda -- B Forum Participants and Agenda -- Participants -- Forum Agenda -- C Call for White Papers (Abridged) -- Responding To The Call -- Format Requirements Summary -- Computer Science And Telecommunications Board -- White Paper Criteria And Format -- Criteria -- Format -- A. Statement of the Problem -- B. Background (approximately 4 to 5 pages) -- C. Analysis and Forecast (approximately 12 to 15 pages) -- D. Recommendations (approximately 3 to 4 pages) -- E. Additional Resources (optional) -- D White Papers Received -- E NII 2000 Liaisons -- F Letter from Vice President Albert Gore March 6, 1995.

G Acronyms and Abbreviations Used.