Cover -- Title Page -- Copyright -- Preface -- Foreword -- Contents -- Figures and Tables -- Executive Summary -- Acknowledgments -- Chapter One: Introduction -- Alternative Models -- Assessing and Accepting Risk -- Values and Interests -- Keeping Pace with Change -- Choices for America -- Chapter Two: The Global Economy -- Trends and Challenges -- Including or Excluding China -- Global Versus Regional Rule-Setting -- Chapter Three: National Defense -- Europe -- East Asia -- Counterterrorist Operations -- Nuclear Forces -- Counterinsurgency and Stability Operations -- Readiness -- Enhancing Allied Defenses -- Choices for Sizing the Defense Budget -- Chapter Four: Counterterrorism -- Tactical Versus Strategic Counterterrorism -- What Will Be Needed to Defeat ISIS? -- Picking Partners and Identifying Enemies -- Rebalancing Civil Liberties and Security -- Chapter Five: Cybersecurity -- U.S. Strengths and Vulnerabilities -- Things to Come -- Addressing Vulnerabilities -- Privacy Versus Security -- Limiting the Likelihood of Cyber War -- Chapter Six: Climate Change -- Potential Disruption -- Responses -- Challenges of Collective Action -- Lead or Follow on Emissions Reductions -- Current or New Multinational Path -- Chapter Seven: Europe -- Confronting or Engaging Russia -- Whither Ukraine: Partition or Neutral Buffer -- Addressing European Disintegration -- Chapter Eight: East Asia -- Accommodating Versus Containing China -- Isolating or Engaging North Korea -- Chapter Nine: Middle East and South Asia -- Engaging or Confronting Iran -- Ending the War in Syria -- Arab-Israeli Settlement -- Afghanistan and Pakistan: Staying or Going -- Chapter Ten: Rethinking American National Strategy -- Overlearning the Lessons of the Recent Past -- U.S. National Strategy -- Conclusion -- Abbreviations -- References.