Running Out -- Running Out: -- How Global Shortages -- Change the Economic Paradigm -- Pablo Rafael Gonzalez -- Table of Contents -- Introduction -- General Synthesis -- Chapter 1. The New Paradigm -- Natural Resources as an Economic Problem -- A New Vision of the Factors of Production -- From Malthus to the Club of Rome -- The Leontief Thesis -- Economic Theory and the Lack of Interest in Natural Resources -- Signs of Shortage -- Conclusion -- Chapter 2. Economy, Energy and the Environment -- How Many People Can the Earth Feed? -- Effects of the World Income Distribution -- The New Reality of the World Economy -- The New Restrictive Factor of Economic Growth -- Limits of Economic Growth -- The Third World is the Potential Market -- Full Employment is Unattainable on a Global Scale -- Debt: The New Regulator of the Economy -- Changes in the Population's Structure -- The New Economic Paradigm -- The Equation of Modernity -- Chapter 3. Population and Energy -- Energy Consumption Always Grows -- A Methodological Conclusion -- Chapter 4. Running Out of Oil -- Effects of the Oil Crisis -- The Choice -- A Verifiable Hypothesis -- We All Love a Happy Ending -- The Price of Scarcity -- Chapter 5. Finite Resources -- Extinct Species -- Endangered Mammals, 2002 -- Endangered Birds, 2002 -- Endangered Plant Species -- Deforestation -- South America's Electric Power Crisis -- As Oil Use Decreases, Nuclear Energy Use Increases -- Population and Food, Water and Energy Production -- Pollution Dampens Food Production Worldwide -- Hungry People -- Not a Drop to Drink -- Population Distribution -- Water -- Drying Up in the Middle East -- Water Shortage in Asia -- Even America is Going Dry -- Europe -- Asia -- Middle East -- Historical Evidence, the Example of the Potosí Mines -- Minas Gerais's gold -- The Gold of Peru and the Silver of Mexico.

Oil is Not an Exception -- Reflection On Growth -- Chapter 6. Reality 2000 -- Major Petroleum-Producing Countries -- OPEC -- OPEC Reserves -- Oil Consumers -- Chapter 7. Forecasting the World's Demand for Oil -- Demand Will Outstrip Supply -- Future Consumption: The United States -- Future Consumption: Russia and the Former Soviet Union -- Future Consumption: Mexico -- Future Consumption: Asia -- Future Consumption: Latin America -- Future Consumption: Western Europe -- Future Consumption: Industrialized Asia -- Future Consumption: Middle East -- Future Consumption: Africa -- Conclusion -- Chapter 8. More Production, Less Reserves -- The Same Holds True for Coal -- Consumption of Primary Energy -- Energy Consumption in Latin America -- Chapter 9. Crude Oil in the Non-OPEC Countries -- The United States and Hubbert's Curve -- The United States: Oil Production, Reserves and Consumption 1940-2000 -- Conclusion on the United States -- There's No Guarantee of New Reserves -- The Beginning of the End -- Calculating the Productive Life of an Oilfield -- The Hubbert Method -- The Decline of the Fields -- The United Kingdom -- Norway -- Likewise in Mexico -- Russia and the Former Soviet Union -- Conclusion about Russia and the Former Soviet Union -- The Caspian Sea -- The Strategic Importance of Afghanistan -- China -- Chinese Reserves are Running Out -- China's Future Consumption -- Conclusion about the Non-OPEC Countries -- Chapter 10. Crude Oil in the OPEC Countries -- The Production Peak in the Middle East -- Algeria in the 1960s -- Algeria in the 1970s -- Algeria in the 1980s -- Algeria in the 1990s -- Indonesia in the 1960s -- Indonesia in the 1970s -- Indonesia in the 1980s -- Indonesia in the 1990s -- Iran in the 1960s -- Iran in the 1970s -- Iran in the 1980s -- Iran in the 1990s -- Iraq in the 1960s -- Iraq in the 1970s -- Iraq in the 1980s.

Iraq in the 1990s -- Kuwait in the 1960s -- Kuwait in the 1970s -- Kuwait in the 1980s -- Kuwait in the 1990s -- Libya in the 1960s -- Libya in the 1970s -- Libya in the 1980s -- Libya in the 1990s -- Nigeria in the 1960s -- Nigeria in the 1970s -- Nigeria in the 1980s -- Nigeria in the 1990s -- Qatar in the 1960s -- Qatar in the 1970s -- Qatar in the 1980s -- Qatar in the 1990s -- Saudi Arabia in the 1960s -- Saudi Arabia in the 1970s -- Saudi Arabia in the 1980s -- Saudi Arabia in the 1990s -- United Arab Emirates in the 1960s -- United Arab Emirates in the 1970s -- United Arab Emirates in the 1980s -- United Arab Emirates in the 1990s -- Venezuela in the 1960s -- Venezuela in the 1970s -- Venezuela in the 1980s -- Venezuela in the 1990s -- Conclusion on OPEC Countries -- Nonconventional Oil -- The Orinoco Belt - The Largest Reserve -- Extra Heavy Oil as a Source of Uranium, Gold and Other Minerals -- Chapter 11. A Different Option -- Will High Oil Prices Slow the Use of Oil? -- The Yamani Vision -- Technology Transfers - Exporting the Biggest Polluters to the Third World -- Conclusion on the Divergent Positions -- Chapter 12. How Long Will the Oil Reserves Last? -- Wake-Up Call -- Chapter 13. A Look to the Past -- From Kerosene to Gasoline -- We Are Already at War -- The Performance of Non-OPEC Countries -- The Producers -- Chapter 14. Production and Prices -- Historical Overview of Production and Prices -- The 1860: Gas Lamps and Gasoline -- The 1870s: The First Internal Combustion Engine -- The 1880s: The First Gasoline Station -- The 1890s: The First Diesel Motor -- The 1900s: The First Automobile and the First Flights -- The 1910s: World War I -- The 1920s: Rebuilding after the War, and The Great Depression -- The 1930s: The Spanish Civil War -- The 1940s: The Second World War -- The 1950a: The Suez Canal Crisis -- The 1960s: The Six Days War.

The 1970s: The Arab Oil Embargo -- The 1980s: The Iran-Iraq War -- The 1990s: The Persian Gulf War -- Chapter 15. What Next? -- The New Challenge to the Economy -- General Conclusion.