COVER -- PREFACE -- CONTENTS -- FIGURES -- TABLES -- SUMMARY -- ACKNOWLEDGMENTS -- ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS -- Chapter One - POTENTIAL ADVERSITIES CONFRONTING CHINA'S CONTINUED ECONOMIC GROWTH -- PART I - CHINA'S INSTITUTIONAL AND STRUCTURAL FAULT LINES -- Chapter Two - MASSIVE UNEMPLOYMENT AND RURAL POVERTY -- Chapter Three - ECONOMIC EFFECTS OF CORRUPTION -- PART II - SECTORAL FAULT LINES -- Chapter Four - EPIDEMIC DISEASE: A WILD CARD IN CHINA'SECONOMIC FUTURE? -- CHINA'S HEALTH PROGRESS SINCE THE "LIBERATION": A LONG MARCH AGAINST INFECTIOUS AND PARASITIC DISEASE -- CHINA'S CURRENT HEALTH PROFILE IN INTERNATIONAL AND GEOGRAPHIC PERSPECTIVE -- PROSPECTS FOR EPIDEMIC DISEASE IN CONTEMPORARY CHINA: THE RISKS OF BEHAVIOR-BORNE COMMUNICABLE ILLNESSES -- MODELING POSSIBLE TRAJECTORIES FOR AN HIV EPIDEMIC IN CHINA -- ECONOMIC IMPLICATIONS FOR CHINA OF HIV"BREAKOUT" -- Chapter Five - WATER RESOURCES AND POLLUTION -- ESTIMATING WATER SUPPLY AND DEMAND -- Water Resources and Regional Disparities -- Demand Estimation for Agriculture, Industry, and Municipalities -- IDENTIFYING THE CONSEQUENCES OF FLOOD, WATER SHORTAGE, AND POLLUTION ON THE ECONOMY -- Effects on Agriculture -- Effects on Industry, Municipal Water Supply, and Public Health -- ALTERNATIVES TO ABATE THE PROBLEM, AND THE EXPECTED COST AND BENEFITS -- Water Diversion from South to North -- Water Saving Technologies and Flood Control -- A Market Approach to Demand and Pollution Management -- Water Treatment and Recycling -- ECONOMIC AND SECURITY IMPLICATIONS -- Effect of Water Problems on Productivity, Capital, and Labor -- Security: Food Sufficiency and Regional Conflicts -- Future Scenarios and Possible Adversities -- Chapter Six - GDP EFFECTS OF AN ENERGY PRICE SHOCK -- SOME BASIC DATA ON THE CHINESE ENERGY SECTOR AND CHINESE GDP -- OIL PRICE EFFECTS OF A "SEVERE" OIL SUPPLY DISRUPTION.

EFFECTS ON CHINESE GDP -- Oil Market Effects -- PART III - FINANCIAL FAULT LINES -- Chapter Seven - CHINA'S FRAGILE FINANCIAL SYSTEM AND THE STATE-OWNED ENTERPRISES -- AN INEFFECTUAL CENTRAL BANK -- A FRAGILE COMMERCIAL BANKING SYSTEM -- UNREGULATED FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS -- ADVERSE SCENARIOS: FINANCIAL CRISES AND SLACK ECONOMIC GROWTH -- Chapter Eight - POSSIBLE SHRINKAGE OF FOREIGN CAPITAL INFLOWS -- INTRODUCTION: SOME RELEVANT BACKGROUND -- WHAT WILL AFFECT FDI IN CHINA IN THE 2002-2010 PERIOD? -- The Internal Political and Economic Environment -- External Influences on FDI in China -- EFFECTS OF FDI ON CHINA'S ECONOMIC GROWTH -- Two Mechanisms -- Effects on Growth -- CONCLUSIONS -- PART IV - SECURITY FAULT LINES -- Chapter Nine - TAIWAN AND OTHER POTENTIAL CONFLICTS -- BACKGROUND AND CURRENT STATUS -- THE POSSIBILITY OF SERIOUS DETERIORATION FROM THE STATUS QUO -- OTHER CONFLICT POSSIBILITIES -- Chapter Ten - CONCLUSIONS: FAULT LINES IN CHINA'S ECONOMIC TERRAIN -- FINDINGS AND BOTTOM LINES -- Unemployment, Poverty, and Social Unrest -- Economic Effects of Corruption -- HIV/AIDS and Epidemic Disease -- Water Resources and Pollution -- Energy Consumption and Prices -- China's Fragile Financial System and State-Owned Enterprises -- Possible Shrinkage of Foreign Direct Investment -- Taiwan and Other Potential Conflicts -- SUMMARY -- EPILOGUE -- BIBLIOGRAPHY -- ABOUT THE AUTHORS -- INDEX.