Contents -- Foreword -- Preface -- Acknowledgments -- Abbreviations -- I. Taking Stock of Lessons and Issues -- 1. NDC in the Teens: Lessons and Issues -- 2. The First Wave of NDC Reforms: The Experiences of Italy, Latvia, Poland, and Sweden -- 3. Parallel Lines: NDC Pensions and the Direction of Pension Reform in Developed Countries -- COMMENTS -- Marek Góra -- Krzysztof Hagemejer -- Bernd Marin -- Fritz von Nordheim -- II. Reforms under Implementation, Consideration, Contemplation -- 4. Pension Reform in Norway: Combining an NDC Approach and Distributional Goals -- COMMENT -- Tarmo Valkonen -- 5. Egypt's New Social Insurance System: An NDC Reform in an Emerging Economy -- COMMENT -- Jorge Miguel Bravo -- 6. China: An Innovative Hybrid Pension Design Proposal -- COMMENT -- Agnieszka Chłoń-Domińczak -- 7. China: Pension Reform for an Aging Economy -- COMMENT -- Mark C. Dorfmann -- 8. Greece: The NDC Paradigm as a Framework for a Sustainable Pension System -- COMMENT -- Noriyuki Takayama -- 9. Assessing Fiscal Costs and Pension Distribution in Transitions to Defined Contribution Systems: A Retrospective Analysis for Chile -- COMMENT -- María del Carmen Boado-Penas and Carlos Vidal-Meliá -- Figures -- 2.1 Estimated impact of pension reforms on average age of exit from the labor force in 2060 -- 2.2 GDP, wage growth, and NDC and FDC returns, Poland, 2000-09 -- 2.3 Relation between lifetime earnings and pensions -- 2.4 Impact of public contributions on reduction of net loss of pension benefit because of child care -- 3.1 Number of years of earnings used in the pension calculation -- 3.2 Reduction in accrued pension benefits per year of early retirement -- 3.3 Changes in gross pension wealth from working an additional year at ages 60-65 -- 3.4 Increase in accrued benefits per year of deferral of pension claim after normal age.

3.5 Effect of life expectancy risk in mandatory pension programs -- 4.1 Before-tax overall public pension (income and guaranteed pensions) as a percentage of the average wage -- 4.2 Before-tax overall public pension (income and guaranteed pensions) as a percentage of the average wage -- 4.3 Projections of the labor force under the old and the new systems -- 4.4 Ratio of the number of persons in the labor force to the number of old-age and disability pensioners, projected under different demographic scenarios and for the new and old pension systems -- 4.5 Estimated contribution rates for old-age pension expenditures under the old and new systems and with different assumptions regarding growth in life expectancy -- 4.6 Estimated pension bene. ts in 2050, by pension income percentile -- 4.7 Ratio of total old-age pension benefits to total lifetime earnings, by gender and under the new and old systems -- 5.1 Expected consolidated balance of the Arab Republic of Egypt's current pension funds, to 2075 -- 5.2 Financial projections for various reform scenarios, the Arab Republic of Egypt, to 2075 -- 5.3 Expected replacement rates at selected retirement ages and contribution rates, the Arab Republic of Egypt -- 5.4 Financial projections (current PAYG balance, including investment income), current and new insurance schemes, the Arab Republic of Egypt, 2010-75 -- 5.5 Financial projections (consolidated current PAYG balance, new and old schemes) for insurance system reform schemes, four variants, the Arab Republic of Egypt, 2010-75 -- 6.1 Beneficiary populations covered by the social pension, 2009-2110 -- 7.1 Old-age dependency ratio in China and in the rest of the world, actual and projected to 2080 -- 7.2 Old-age dependency ratio in China, urban and rural areas, 2008-2120 -- 7.3 Chinese urban pension system, projected contributions minus expenditures, 2008-20.

7.4 Chinese urban pension system, projected accumulated assets, 2008-20 -- 7.5 Chinese urban pension system, projected entry pensions, total, 2008-20 -- 7.6 Chinese rural pension system, projected expenditures, contributions, and deficits, 2008-20 -- 7.7 Chinese urban pensions, projected entry pensions under first NDC scenario, 2008-20 -- 7.8 Chinese urban pensions, projected entry pensions under second NDC scenario, 2008-20 -- 7.9 Number of employed persons under various scenarios, China, 2008-20 -- 8.1 Replacement rates in selected countries, primary and supplementary pensions, for men and by income group, 2010, before reform -- 9.1 Projected number of individuals retiring each year from the AFP system, Chile, 1982-2025 -- 9.2 Predicted expected contribution, by age and gender, Chile -- 9.3 Annualized real rates of return under the FDC and NDC systems, Chile, 1982-2025 -- 9.4 Discount rates for annuity calculations, six-month average, Chile, 1981-2025 -- 9.5 Distribution of monthly pension under FDC and NDC reforms, given past rates of return, Chile -- 9.6 Coverage of the minimum pension guarantee over time under FDC and NDC reforms, Chile -- 9.7 Average self-financed pensions, by quintile, under the FDC and NDC reforms, Chile, 1981-2025 -- 9.8 Annual fiscal cost of minimum pension guarantee under the FDC and NDC reforms, Chile, 1981-2025 -- 9.9 Fiscal surplus of the NDC regime, Chile, 1981-2025 -- 9.10 Projected fiscal cost from INP operational deficit and recognition bonds, Chile, 1981-2025 -- 9.11 Total fiscal expenditures under the FDC and NDC reforms, Chile, 1981-2025 -- 9.12 Simulated annualized rates of return on financial assets, Chile -- 9.13 Distribution of replacement rates for the average worker, Chile -- 9C.1 Observed and predicted growth rate of the rate of return on financial assets.

9C.2 Observed and predicted growth rate of the covered wage bill -- Tables -- 2.1 Coverage of the four NDC systems -- 2.2 Contribution rates for pensions as a share of wages -- 2.3 Cohorts covered by the NDC scheme -- 2.4 Components of individual accounts during the accumulation phase -- 2.5 Pension formulas -- 2.6 Replacement rates for newly granted benefits -- 2.7 Theoretical replacement rates at retirement for new entrants into the labor force -- 2.8 Change in future net replacement rates depending on years spent out of the formal labor market to provide child care -- 2.9 Changes in the ratio of public pension expenditure to GDP, 2007-60 -- 2.10 Decomposition of the ratio of public pension spending to GDP, 2007-60 -- 2.11 Ratio of an average pension to an average wage, 2007 and 2060 -- 2.12 Factors influencing financial balance -- 3.1 Four ways of establishing a link between life expectancy and pensions -- 3.2 Life expectancy at age 65 in 2002 -- distribution of 50-year projections and change from baseline -- 3A.1 Treatment of early and late retirees by pension schemes in OECD countries -- 4.1 Replacement rates of the total old-age pension (including guaranteed pension) before taxes, for selected birth cohorts and earnings levels, before and after the reform -- 4.2 Decomposition of the effect of postponing retirement on the replacement rate of the old-age pension for the 1963 birth cohort in the case AW100, by retirement age -- 4.3 Replacement rates after taxes for case AW100 when AFP and supplementary pensions are included, by birth cohort and retirement age -- 4.4 Replacement rates after taxes for selected wage levels, with AFP and supplementary pensions included, by birth cohort and retirement age -- 5.1 Average annual rates of return on Egyptian pension fund assets compared with annual inflation rates, fiscal years 2001/02-2010/11.

5.2 Contribution rates under the Arab Republic of Egypt's old and new social insurance and pension systems -- 5.3 Example of the expected pension replacement rate under the Arab Republic of Egypt's new system, by retirement age -- 5.4 Unemployment insurance, Arab Republic of Egypt -- 5.5 Structure of the Arab Republic of Egypt's new pension system -- 5.6 Retirement age, the Arab Republic of Egypt -- 5.7 Expected real GDP growth rates and inflation rates, the Arab Republic of Egypt, selected years, 2007-75 -- 5.8 Valorization of NDC accounts during the accumulation phase and indexation of pension benefits in the four original NDC countries -- 6.1 Three plans for employer contributions and social pooling, with 8 percent employee contribution, for the transition period, 2009-20 -- 6.2 Financial sustainability of the three proposed plans during the transition period, 2009-20 -- 6.3 Features of 12 participating groups in 4 categories covered by the hybrid pension plan -- 6.4 Financial subsidy for pensions for farmers and urban freelance employees, amount and share of GDP, 2009-70 -- 6.5 Effect of inheritance of individual assets on the fund balance in the hybrid scheme, 2009-70 -- 6.6 Projections of social pension expenditure, 2009-21 -- 6A.1 Basic parameters of population and economic data -- 8.1 Coverage of primary pension funds in Greece, 2008 -- 8.2 Replacement rates for pension funds, Greece, 2007-60 -- 8.3 Average pension as a share of GDP per worker, selected countries, 2000 and 2050 -- 8.4 Estimates of the deficits of the Greek pension system, 2000-50 -- 8.5 Public pension expenditure, European Union countries, 2007-60 -- 8.6 Preliminary cost estimates for the proposed pension reform in Greece, in current earnings, 2000-50 -- 9.1 Net present value of selected components of fiscal expenditure under alternative scenarios, Chile.

9.2 Impacts of alternative combinations of FDCs and NDCs on the distribution of replacement rates and fiscal costs related to the minimum pension, Chile.