Cover image for Impact of Oil-Related Income on the Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate in Syria.
Impact of Oil-Related Income on the Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate in Syria.
Title:
Impact of Oil-Related Income on the Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate in Syria.
Author:
Dridi, Jemma.
ISBN:
9781451915075
Personal Author:
Physical Description:
1 online resource (32 pages)
Series:
IMF Working Papers
Contents:
Contents -- I. Introduction -- II. Brief Review of the Literature -- III. Exchange System in Syria -- A. Exchange System Developments -- B. Which Exchange Rate Should be Used to Measure the Real Effective Exchange Rate? -- C. Developments of the Free Market and Weighted Rates -- IV. The Role of Oil-Related Income -- A. The Concept of Oil-Related Income -- B. The Impact of Oil-Related Income on the Balance of Payments and the Budget -- V. Theoretical Determinants of the Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate and Estimation Results -- A. Theoretical Determinants of the Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate -- B. Estimation Results and Data Issues -- VI. Conclusions -- References -- Appendixes -- I. Exchange System Developments in Syria -- II. Detailed ECM Results -- Boxes -- 1. Oil-Related Income in Syria -- Figures -- 1. Developments of the Official and Free Market Exchange Rates, 1951-2005 -- 2. Nominal and Real Effective Exchange Rates, 1960-2005 -- 3. Share of Oil-Related Revenues in Total Foreign Exchange Earnings, and Balance of Payments Developments, 1960-2005 -- 4. Share of the Oil-Related Revenues in Total Foreign Exchange Earnings and Fiscal Developments, 1960-2005 -- 5. Real Efffective Exchange Rate and its Theoretical Determinants, 1960-2005 -- 6. Government Expenditure and Imports, 1961-2005 -- 7. REERF, Smoothed and Unsmoothed ERER, and Misalignment, 1960-2005 -- 8. External Sustainability Assessment -- Tables -- 1. Unit Root Tests -- 2. Multivariate Cointegration Test Results -- 3. Long-Term Coefficient From Vector Error Correction Model Estimates Using the Free Market Rate.
Abstract:
This paper examines the impact of oil-related income, among other fundamentals, on the equilibrium real effective exchange rate (ERER) in Syria. After reviewing the evolution of the Syrian multiple exchange rate regime since 1960 and assessing alternative measures for the exchange rate, the paper analyzes the impact of oil-related income on the ERER in the context of a behavioral equilibrium exchange rate model. The analysis concludes that ERER appreciates with higher oil-related income, productivity and net foreign assets, but, at odds with the conventional wisdom, depreciates with higher government expenditures given that an increase in expenditures usually translates into higher imports and weaker current account position. In light of the projected real shocks associated with the depletion of oil and the change in other fundamentals in the context of the ongoing transition to a market economy, a more flexible regime would serve Syria better in the future.
Local Note:
Electronic reproduction. Ann Arbor, Michigan : ProQuest Ebook Central, 2017. Available via World Wide Web. Access may be limited to ProQuest Ebook Central affiliated libraries.
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