CONTENTS -- Preface -- Chapter 1. Risk and Risk Perception for Low Probability, High Consequence Events in the Built Environment Ross B. Corotis -- 1. Why Risk? -- 2. Structural Reliability -- 2.1. Mathematical basis -- 2.2. Mathematical reliability versus codified design -- 3. Risk and Risk Perception -- 4. Low Probabilities and High Consequences -- 4.1. Issues with events of small probability -- 4.2. Issues with the convolution of probability and consequence -- 4.3. Issues of political accountability -- 5. Alternative Decision Criteria -- 5.1. Expected value -- 5.2. Minimum regret -- 5.3. Mini-max and as low as reasonable -- 5.4. Additional criteria -- 6. Societal Decision-Making -- 6.1. Trade-offs -- 6.2. Development, sustainability and intergenerational issues -- 6.3. Assessing risks and benefits -- 6.4. Economic lifetime -- 6.5. Utility and discounting -- 6.6. Probabilistic risk versus uncertainty -- 6.6.1. Objective and subjective probability -- 6.6.2. Aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty -- 6.6.3. Psychological distinctions -- 6.7. Risk or risk perception? -- 6.8. Political issues -- References -- Chapter 2. Socio-Economic Risk Acceptability Criteria Rudiger Rackwitz -- 1. Introduction -- 2. Theoretical Developments -- 3. SWTP's for Some Selected Countries -- 4. Application to Event-Type Hazards from Technical Facilities and the Natural Environment -- 5. Summary and Conclusions -- References -- Chapter 3. Reliability in Structural Performance Evaluation and Design Y. K. Wen -- 1. Introduction -- 2. Reliability-Based Performance-Oriented Design -- 2.1. Performance goal -- 2.2. Reliability evaluation -- 2.3. E.ect of capacity and epistemic uncertainty -- 2.4. IDA analysis of capacity against incipient collapse -- 2.5. Reliability-based design -- 2.6. Target reliability level -- 3. Minimum Lifecycle Cost Design Criteria.

3.1. Design based on optimization -- 3.2. Design against earthquakes -- 3.3. Design against earthquake and wind hazards -- 4. Application to Vulnerability and Retrofit Analysis -- 5. Reliability and Redundancy -- 5.1. Steel moment frames of different connection ductility capacities -- 5.2. Uniform-risk redundancy factor RR -- 5.3. Moment frames of different configurations -- 6. Concluding Remarks -- Acknowledgments -- References -- Chapter 4. Performance-Based Reliability Evaluation of Structure-Foundation Systems Mosta.z Chowdhury and Achintya Haldar -- 1. Introduction -- 2. Reliability-Based Approaches -- 3. Performance Functions -- 3.1. Strength performance functions -- 3.2. Serviceability performance functions -- 4. System Reliability -- 4.1. Performance modes (PM) - Brittle behavior of piles -- 4.1.1. Evaluation of the most significant performance mode -- 4.1.2. Upper bound evaluation of the system probability of UP -- 4.2. Performance modes (PM) - Ductile behavior of piles -- 4.2.1. Evaluation of the most significant performance mode -- 4.2.2. Upper bound evaluation of the system probability of UP -- 5. Illustrative Examples -- 5.1. System reliability bounds considering brittle behavior of piles -- 5.2. System reliability bounds considering ductile behavior of piles -- 5.2.1. Calculation of incremental load, P1 -- 6. Conclusions -- Acknowledgments -- References -- Chapter 5. Application of Probabilistic Methods in Bridge Engineering Michel Ghosn -- 1. Introduction -- 2. Code Calibration -- 3. Application to Bridge Engineering -- 3.1. Resistance modeling -- 3.2. Load modeling -- 3.3. Example -- 4. Reliability of Bridge Structural Systems -- 4.1. Series systems -- 4.2. Ditlevsen's bounds for systems in series -- 4.3. Parallel systems -- 4.4. Example -- 4.5. Generation of failure modes -- 5. Response Surface Method.

6. Genetic Algorithms in Bridge System Reliability -- 6.1. Genetic algorithm method -- 6.2. Illustrative example -- 6.3. Analysis of cable-stayed bridge -- 7. Concluding Remarks -- Acknowledgments -- References -- Chapter 6. Stochastic Response of Fixed Offshore Structures Ser-Tong Quek, Xiang-Yuan Zheng and Chih-Young Liaw -- 1. Introduction -- 1.1. Sources of nonlinearities -- 1.2. Frequency-domain analyses of wave loadings -- 1.2.1. Volterra series approach -- 1.2.2. Cumulant spectral approach -- 2. Polynomial Approximation of Nonlinear Wave Forces -- 2.1. Morison and inundation drag forces -- 2.2. Least squares approximation (LSA) -- 2.3. Moment-based approximation (MBA) -- 3. Volterra-Series Based Frequency-Domain Analysis -- 3.1. A third-order Volterra series model -- 3.2. Application to spectral analysis of wave force -- 3.2.1. Power-spectrumof F -- 3.2.2. Power-spectrumof P -- 3.3. Higher-order spectra analysis of F -- 4. Cumulant Spectral Analysis -- 4.1. Input-output spectral relationship -- 4.2. Correlation functions of F & P -- 4.3. Fourth-order cumulant function of Q -- 4.4. Fourth-order moment function of D -- 5. Time-Domain Simulations -- 5.1. Linear wave -- 5.2. Nonlinear wave -- 5.3. Numerical example -- 6. Concluding Remarks -- References -- Chapter 7. Application of Reliability Methods to Fatigue Analysis and Design Paul H. Wirsching -- 1. The Fatigue Process -- 2. Engineering Descriptions of Fatigue Strength -- 3. Miner's Rule -- 4. Uncertainties in the Fatigue Process -- 4.1. Strength modeling error -- The quality of Miner's rule -- 4.2. Strength uncertainty -- 4.3. Stress uncertainty -- 5. Managing Uncertainty -- Structural Reliability -- 6. Example. The Lognormal Format -- 7. Same Example. . .Different Statistical Distributions -- 8. Reliability Analysis when Life is an Implicit Function -- 9. Comments.

A More General Case Where System Reliability is a Consideration and Maintenance is Performed -- 10.Fatigue Design Criteria -- 10.1. Fatigue design criteria -- The design stress approach -- 10.2. Target damage level -- 10.3. Fatigue design criteria -- Factor of safety on life -- 10.4. Partial safety factor format -- 11.Concluding Remarks -- References -- Chapter 8. Probabilistic Models for Corrosion in Structural Reliability Assessment Robert E. Melchers -- 1. Introduction -- 2. Factors in Marine Corrosion -- 3. Probabilistic Model for Marine General Corrosion -- 3.1. General form -- 3.2. Mean value model -- 3.3. Calibration of mean value model -- 3.4. Bias and uncertainty functions b(t, T) and ε(t, T) -- 3.5. Example application -- 4. Probabilistic Model for Marine Pitting Corrosion -- 4.1. Background -- 4.2. Probabilistic pit growth model -- 4.3. Dependence and homogeneity for maximum pit depths -- 4.4. Comparison -- 5. Other Factors -- 5.1. Steel composition -- 5.2. Water velocity -- 5.3. Saline and brackish waters -- 5.4. Water pollution -- 5.5. Season of first immersion -- 6. Conclusion -- Acknowledgments -- References -- Chapter 9. Seismic Risk Assessment of Realistic Frame Structures Using a Hybrid Reliability Method Jungwon Huh and Achintya Haldar -- 1. Introduction -- 2. A Unified Time-Domain Reliability Assessment of Real Structures -- 2.1. Deterministic finite element method for dynamic analysis -- 2.2. Systematic response surface method -- 2.3. Consideration of uncertainty -- 2.4. Limit state function for risk assessment -- 2.4.1. Strength limit state -- 2.4.2. Serviceability limit state -- 2.5. Solution strategy -- 3. Reliability Estimation of Frames with PR Connections -- 3.1. Modeling of PR connections -- 3.2. Incorporation of PR connections into the FEM -- 3.3. Uncertainties in the connection model.

4. Reliability Estimation of In-Filled Frames -- 4.1. Modeling of shear walls -- 4.2. Incorporation of shear walls into the FEM -- 5. Numerical Examples -- 5.1. Example 1 - Seismic reliability of steel frame structures with FR and PR connections -- 5.1.1. Seismic risk of the frame with FR connections -- 5.1.2. Seismic risk of the frame with PR connections -- 5.2. Example 2 - In-filled steel frame structures -- 5.2.1. Reliability analysis of the frame without shear walls -- 5.2.2. Reliability analysis of the frame with shear walls -- 6. Conclusions -- Acknowledgments -- References -- Chapter 10. Meshfree Methods in Computational Stochastic Mechanics Sharif Rahman -- 1. Introduction -- 2. The Element-Free Galerkin Method -- 2.1. Moving least squares and meshless shape function -- 2.2. Variational formulation and discretization -- 2.3. Essential boundary conditions -- 3. RandomField and Parameterization -- 3.1. Karhunen-Loeve representation -- 3.2. Gaussian and translation random fields -- 3.3. Meshfree method for solving integral equation -- 3.4. Example 1: Eigensolution for a two-dimensional domain -- 4. Multivariate Function Decomposition -- 4.1. Univariate approximation -- 4.2. Bivariate approximation -- 4.3. Generalized S-variate approximation -- 5. Statistical Moment Analysis -- 5.1. General stochastic response -- 5.2. Discrete equilibrium equations -- 5.3. Example 2: Response statistics of a plate with a hole -- 6. Reliability Analysis -- 6.1. Response surface generation -- 6.2. Monte Carlo simulation -- 6.3. Example 3: Reliability analysis of a plate with a hole -- 7. Conclusions and Outlook -- Acknowledgments -- References -- Chapter 11. Reliability Analysis Using Information from Experts Jamshid Mohammadi and Eduardo Desantiago -- 1. Introduction -- 2. Procedure -- 3. Data Collection Process -- 4. Probability Encoding -- 5. Biases in Data.

6. Summary and Conclusions.