Contents -- Foreword -- Foreword -- Foreword -- Preface -- About the Authors -- Acknowledgments -- Acronyms and Abbreviations -- Executive Summary -- The Problems China Faces -- Sustainability: A Challenging but Feasible Goal -- The Path to Sustainability -- Sequencing the Steps to Sustainability -- Chapter 1 Introduction -- An Impressive Foundation of Past Achievements -- Growing Concerns about China's Energy Future -- The Four Pillars of Energy Sustainability -- The Closing Window of Opportunity -- Structure of the Report -- Chapter 2 China's Energy Future: The Challenge of Recent Trends -- Sustained Consumption Growth, 1980-2000 -- High Growth Forecast for 2000 to 2020 -- Recent Signs of an Unsustainable Energy Growth Path -- The Urgency for Policy Action -- Chapter 3 Reining in Future Energy Consumption -- Achievements in Energy Efficiency -- Concerns about Energy Consumption Trends of the 10th Five-Year Plan -- Bold New Directions of the 11th Five-Year Plan -- The Closing Window of Opportunity for Reducing Long-Term Energy Intensity -- The Missing Link: An Improved Policy and Institutional Framework -- Chapter 4 Greening the Energy Sector -- Pollution Levels Still a Major Concern -- Environmental Impacts of the Energy Scenarios -- The Energy Path to Greener Development -- Chapter 5 Securing Energy Supply -- China's Growing Sense of Insecurity -- Options for Securing Oil and Gas Supply -- Options for Securing Electricity Supply -- Choosing the Right Mix and Amount of Energy Supply Security Measures -- Chapter 6 Getting the Fundamentals Right -- Furthering the Reform Agenda and Developing a Sound Pricing Framework -- Energy Pricing in Competitive Markets -- Setting Sound Regulated Tariffs -- Taxing Energy Commodities -- Measures to Mitigate the Environmental Effects of Energy Use -- Energy Commodity Price Policy: Status and Necessary Changes.

Chapter 7 Shaping the Future toward Sustainability -- At the Threshold of Change toward Sustainability in Energy Structure and Policy -- Characteristics of a Comprehensive Policy for Energy Sustainability -- Four Guiding Pillars for Sustainability Policy -- Building Blocks to Put the Energy Sector on a Sustainable Path -- The Sequence of Steps to Sustainability -- Appendix A Gross Domestic Product and Energy Consumption in China, 1980-2005 -- Appendix B Biomass Energy Use in China -- Summary -- Biomass Resources -- Current Status of Development -- Prospects for Biomass in China's Energy Balance -- Adverse Effects on the Natural Environment and on Human Health from Biomass Use -- Policies Designed to Encourage the Use of Modern Biomass Technologies -- Appendix C The Chinese System for Energy Statistics: History, Current Situation, and Ways to Improve the System -- The Groundwork Established in the 1980s -- Retrenchment in the 1990s -- The Current Situation and Its Weaknesses -- Conclusions and Recommendations -- Appendix D Energy Costs as a Proportion of Gross Domestic Product: Estimates for China, Japan, and the United States -- Appendix E Feedback from the Dissemination Workshop -- Feedback 1: China's Energy Economy Presents Many Challenges -- Feedback 2: The Energy Statistical System Needs Revision -- Feedback 3: The Target 20 Percent Energy-Intensity Reduction during the 11th Five-Year Plan Will Be Difficult to Achieve -- Feedback 4: Economic Well-Being, Energy Consumption, and Environmental Concerns Should Be Addressed -- Feedback 5: Energy Technology Leapfrogging Requires Clarification -- Feedback 6: International Cooperation and Technology Transfer Are Needed -- Appendix F Life-Cycle Costs of Electricity Generation Alternatives with Environmental Costs Factored In -- Appendix G International Experience of Insecurity of Energy Supply.

Concerns about Oil Imports -- Gas Supply Concerns -- Concerns about Electricity Supply Failures -- Coal Supply, Competitiveness, and Environmental Concerns -- Appendix H Strategic Oil Reserves for China -- International Practice -- Commercial Stocks -- Rationale for Stockpiling -- Rationale for a Particular Level of Stocks -- Decisions to Draw Down Stocks -- Costs -- A Strategic Oil Reserve for China? -- Quality of Estimates -- Appendix I Predominant Approaches for Setting Regulated Tariffs for Gas and Electricity Transmission and Distribution -- Period between Full Tariff Cases -- Three Simple Rules Necessary for Determining Tariffs -- Revenue Requirements -- Rules for Determining Tariffs -- Tariff Adjustments between Major Tariff Proceedings -- Concluding Comments -- Appendix J Lessons from International Experience: Relevant Examples of Losses Derived from Unsound Energy Pricing -- Crude Oil and Products -- Natural Gas -- Electricity -- Effects on General Economic Performance of Nonmarket Energy Pricing -- Conclusions -- Appendix K Gas Price Formation and Gas Subsector Reform -- Market Pricing Works -- Market Prices Can Work for Gas -- The Current Gas Pricing System Is Not Tenable -- The Target: Wholesale Competition -- Transition Could Be Phased -- Anticipated Outcomes -- Appendix L Pricing System to Support Adequate Implementation of State Council Document No. 5 on Power Subsector Reform -- Bid-Price Pool -- Environmental Costs -- Transmission Pricing -- Final Consumer Pricing -- Index -- Boxes -- 1.1 The Evolving Definition of Energy Security -- 2.1 China's Coal Production Prospects through 2020 -- 3.1 The Potential Benefits of Technical Retrofitting: The Case of the Jinan Iron and Steel Group Corporation -- 3.2 Reconciling Automotive Industrial Policy and Energy Sustainability -- 3.3 Energy Efficiency in Buildings.

4.1 Key Elements for Environmental Improvement in the Green Growth Scenario -- 4.2 China's Clean Development Fund: Leveraging Carbon Finance for Technology Transfer -- 5.1 Bank Involvement in China's Coal Subsector -- 5.2 Examples of Domestic Energy Development Incentives in Other Industrial Countries -- 5.3 Repatriating Equity Oil: Is There a Better Way to Provide Security? -- 5.4 The IEA's Approach to Short-Term Oil Emergencies -- 5.5 The Shell Group's Latest Energy Security Scenarios -- 5.6 Strengthening China's Energy Security: China's Special Concern -- 7.1 Effective Energy Institutions Involve Significant Staffing and Budgets -- 7.2 The U.S. Energy Policy Act of 2005 -- 7.3 Key Elements of a Program for a 20 Percent Improvement in Energy Efficiency -- 7.4 Creation of a Strong Energy Ministry Reflects International Practice -- 7.5 China and the International Energy Agency -- G.1 The 2003-06 Oil Price Spike-How Significant Is It in the Security Debate? -- G.2 Causes of the First 21st Century Oil Shock -- G.3 Regional and Liquefied Natural Gas Supply Issues -- G.4 Canadian Views on the Security of Gas Supply -- J.1 Impacts of Selected Failed Policies -- J.2 The Present Gas Supply-and-Demand Situation in North America -- Figures -- 2.1 Energy Intensity and Energy/GDP Elasticity, 1980-2005 -- 2.2 Net Oil Imports, 1990-2005 -- 2.3 GDP per Kilogram of Oil Equivalent of Energy Use -- 3.1 China's Per Capita Energy Consumption and GDP Compared with Selected Countries and the World Average -- 3.2 China's Projected Growth Path of Energy Demand, 1980-2020, Compared with That of Other Countries -- 3.3 China's Energy Intensity and Major Development Periods, 1954-2005 -- 3.4 Tunneling a Less Intensive Energy Path to Higher Per Capita Income -- 3.5 Energy-Intensive Industries to Double Output by 2020 -- 3.6 Projected Truck Fleet by 2020.

3.7 Increase in Vehicle Population -- 4.1 Expected Growth in Global Carbon Dioxide Emissions through 2020 -- 4.2 Funding the Technological Leapfrogging -- 5.1 Energy Insecurity: Generic Causes, Effects, and China's Special Concerns -- 7.1 Designing and Implementing a Coordinated Energy Policy -- F.1 Levelized Cost Comparison of IGCC and Subcritical 600-Megawatt with FGD Units: Capital Cost Ratio -- F.2 Levelized Cost Comparison of IGCC and Subcritical 600-Megawatt with FGD Units: Change of Capital Cost of IGCC -- I.1 Three Simple Rules for Determination of Tariffs -- K.1 The Gas Supply Chain: Structure, Contracting, and Pricing Prior to Introduction of Wholesale Competition -- K.2 The Gas Supply Chain: Structure, Contracting, and Pricing after the Introduction of Wholesale Competition -- Tables -- 2.1 Primary Energy Production and Consumption, 1980-2000 -- 2.2 Final Energy Consumption by Economic Sector and Fuel, 1980-2000 -- 2.3 Key Policy Elements Affecting the Projections of the DRC and ERI's Scenarios for 2020 -- 2.4 Projections of China's Primary Energy Consumption, 2000-20 -- 2.5 Final Energy Consumption by Sector and Fuel, 2000-20 -- 2.6 China's Primary Energy Production and Consumption, 2000-05 -- 2.7 China's Oil Consumption and Trade, 1990-2005 -- 3.1 Change in China's Energy Intensity by End-Use Sector, 1980-2000 -- 3.2 Improvements in the Efficiency of Key Energy-Using Equipment and Comparison with International Standards, 1980-2000 -- 3.3 Sectoral Composition of China's GDP, 1980-2000 -- 3.4 Energy Demand/GDP Elasticities of Major Industrial Countries, 1961-2002 -- 3.5 Household Appliances per 100 Households, 1995-2002 -- 4.1 Projections of Key Air Pollutants in the Energy Scenarios for 2000-20 and Government Caps -- 5.1 Oil and Gas Reserves in the Middle East and Russian Federation.

5.2 Assessment of Relative Difficulty, Cost, and Degree of Control of Key Measures for Short-Term Oil Supply Security.