Cover -- Title Page -- Contents -- Foreword -- Abbreviations -- Introduction -- Introduction -- Part I: Patterns of Long-Term Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa -- Part II: Aid-Volume, Volatility, and Macroeconomic Management -- Part III: Managing External Shocks -- PART 1 Patterns of Long-Term Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa -- 1 Is Africa's Economy at a Turning Point? -- Introduction -- The Recent Acceleration of Growth in Africa -- How Widespread Is the Current Growth Acceleration? -- Performance by Different Types of Countries -- Large Countries -- Oil-Exporting Countries -- Oil-Importing Countries by Endowment and Location -- Oil-Importing Countries by Income and Fragile States -- Regional Groupings -- Growth Diagnostics: What Is Different since 1995? -- Africa's Growth: 1975-2005 -- A Trend Break in 1995 -- History of Growths and Collapses -- Identification of Good Times and Bad -- Growth Acceleration and Deceleration over Time -- Country Pattern of Growth Cycles -- Do Growth Accelerations and Decelerations Matter? -- Savings, Investment, and Consumption -- Structure of the Economy -- Economic Management -- Aid -- Policies, Institutions, and Governance -- Human Development Outcomes -- Explaining the Probability of Growth Accelerations and Decelerations -- Good Luck or Good Policy: How Robust Is the Recent Growth? -- Commodity Prices and Terms of Trade -- Effect of External Shocks on Growth -- Aid Flows and Debt Relief -- Better Leadership -- Overall Policy and Institutional Environment -- Macroeconomic Management -- Adjustment to Higher Oil Prices -- Exchange Rate Regimes -- Reduction of Policy Mistakes across Countries -- Economic Fundamentals before and after 1995 -- Africa Relative to Other Regions -- Trade and FDI -- Accumulation and Productivity of Capital -- Human Capital -- The Blueprint for Success Is Still Not Secured.

Key Areas of Actions to Sustain Growth -- Lowering the Cost of Doing Business and Building an African Private Sector -- Closing the Infrastructure Gap -- Integrating the Region's Economies -- Making Agriculture More Productive -- Using Natural Resource Rents Well -- Increasing Regional and Global Support -- Sharing the Benefits of Growth -- Many MDGs Will Not Be Met -- Sharing the Benefits of Public Services Will Be Key -- Service Delivery Must Reach the Poor, Rural Populations, and Women -- So, Is Africa at a Turning Point? -- Notes -- References -- 2 Patterns of Long-Term Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa -- Introduction -- Data and Methods -- Characteristics of Africa's Long-Run Growth -- Comparing Sub-Saharan Africa with Other Developing Regions -- Country-Level Growth Patterns -- Growth Persistence -- GDP Per Capita Convergence -- Cross-Country Structure of GDP Per Capita -- Checking for Common Country Features -- Country Groups -- The Role of Initial Conditions at the Country-Group Level -- Robustness of Country Groups -- Growth Volatility -- Growth Volatility and Economic Performance -- Growth Volatility and Its Correlates -- Summary and Conclusions -- Annex -- Notes -- References -- PART 2 Aid-Volume, Volatility, and Macroeconomic Management -- 3 Assessing the Macroeconomic Framework for Scaling Up Foreign Aid -- Introduction -- Policy Challenges of Scaling Up Foreign Aid -- Macroeconomic Management of Scaling Up Aid -- Absorption and Spending of Aid -- Country Experiences -- Fiscal Policy for Growth -- Managing Aid Volatility and Risks -- Evolution and Expanded Scope of the Analytical Framework -- PRSPs and Poverty Reduction -- MDGs and Service Delivery -- Debt Relief and Sustainability Analysis -- Dynamics of Aid -- Selected Country Cases -- Ethiopia -- Macroeconomic Management -- Absorption and Spending of Aid -- Scaling Up and MDG Scenarios.

Debt Sustainability Analysis -- Ghana -- Macroeconomic Management -- Scaling Up and MDG Scenarios -- Debt Sustainability Analysis -- Kenya -- Fiscal Policy for Growth and MDG Scenarios -- Madagascar -- Macroeconomic Management -- Fiscal Policy for Growth -- Scaling Up and MDG Scenarios -- Debt Sustainability Analysis -- Rwanda -- Macroeconomic Management -- Fiscal Policy for Growth and Scaled-Up Aid Scenarios -- Debt Sustainability Analysis -- Tanzania -- Macroeconomic Management -- Scaling Up and MDG Scenarios -- Debt Sustainability Analysis -- Uganda -- Macroeconomic Management -- Fiscal Space and MDG Scenarios -- Debt Sustainability Analysis -- Summary and Challenges -- Sector Studies -- Policy and Institutional Environment -- Scope of Public Sector and Public Expenditure -- Risk Management of Aid Fluctuations -- Donor Coordination -- Annex: Selected Economic Indicators -- Notes -- References -- 4 More and Better Aid: How Are Donors Doing? -- Introduction -- Progress on Scaling Up Aid Volumes Is Mixed -- Recent Trends in Global Official Development Assistance -- Aid to Sub-Saharan Africa: Actions Lag Promises -- Aid to Strong Performers: Is There Evidence of a Scale-Up? -- Reliability of Aid Resources Remains Problematic -- Aid Volatility -- Aid Predictability -- Improving the Predictability of Aid -- Accelerating Progress on Alignment and Harmonization -- Actions at the Donor and Developing-Country Levels -- Results of the 2006 Baseline Monitoring Survey -- Challenges Moving Forward -- Delivering Global Program Aid More Effectively -- The Aid Effectiveness Challenge of Global Programs -- Policies and Actions to Deliver More Effective Global Program Aid -- Conclusion -- Notes -- References -- 5 The Macroeconomic Dynamics of Scaling Up Foreign Aid -- Introduction -- The Extended Dynamic 1-2-3 Model -- Simulations8.

Economy with Forward-Looking Investment and Consumption -- Simulation 1: Foreign Official Grants Increase by 2 Percent of Output Permanently -- Simulation 2: Foreign Official Grants Increase by 2 Percent of Output Temporarily-for 10 Years -- Economy with Severe Borrowing Constraint and Dearth of Public Capital -- Simulation 3: Foreign Official Grants Increase by 2 Percent of Output -- Simulation 4: Foreign Official Grants Increase by 2 Percent of Output, Myopic Case -- Conclusions -- Annex: The 1-2-3 Aid Model -- Equations -- Glossary -- Parameters -- Prices -- Quantities -- Values -- Notes -- References -- 6 Foreign Aid, Taxes, and Government Productivity: Alternative Scenarios for Ethiopia's Millennium Development Goal Strategy -- Introduction -- Ethiopia's Economy and the MDGs -- Model Structure and Database -- Simulations and Results -- The Base Simulation and General Simulation Assumptions -- Core MDG Scenario -- Mixed Financing Scenario -- Government Productivity Scenario -- A Strategy Focusing on Human Development -- A Strategy Focusing on Growth and Infrastructure -- Annex -- Notes -- References -- 7 Beyond Aid: New Sources and Innovative Mechanisms for Financing Development in Sub-Saharan Africa -- Introduction -- Trends in Financial Flows to Sub-Saharan Africa -- Resource Flows -- Official Aid -- FDI Flows -- Private Debt Flows -- Portfolio Equity Flows -- Personal and Institutional Remittances -- Capital Outflows -- New Sources and Innovative Mechanisms for Financing Development in Sub-Saharan Africa -- New Sources of Financing -- Diaspora Bonds -- Reducing Remittance Costs -- Innovative Structuring -- Guarantees -- IFFIm, AMC, and Other Innovative Structuring by Public-Private Partnerships -- Future-Flow Securitization -- Recovery of Stolen Assets -- Sovereign Ratings -- Conclusion -- Notes -- References -- PART 3 Managing External Shocks.

8 Have External Shocks Become More Important for Output Fluctuations in African Countries? -- Introduction -- A Simple Theoretical Framework -- A First Look at the Data -- A Semistructural Approach -- Results -- Impact of External Shocks -- Accounting for the Decline in Output Volatility -- Role of Oil Prices -- Final Remarks -- Notes -- References -- 9 Harnessing Oil Windfalls for Growth in the Africa Region -- Introduction -- Estimating the Size of Africa's Oil Windfall -- Factors Influencing the Size of Africa's Windfall -- Capital and Operating Costs Vary across Producers -- Transportation and Quality Discounts Matter -- Volatile Oil Prices Affect Crude Differentials -- Contractual Terms -- Exploration and Development Fees -- Royalties and Production Sharing -- Corporate Tax -- How Are Government Revenues Affected? -- Government Take Varies from Year to Year -- Government Take Varies with Oil Price -- What Is the Value of Africa's Oil Windfall? -- Enhancing the Growth Impact of the Oil Windfall -- Oil Windfalls and Growth -- Strengthening the Growth Impact of Oil Revenues -- Fiscal Policy-The Key to Successful Oil Windfall Management -- Oil Funds and Fiscal Rules -- A Macroeconomic Model for Managing Africa's Oil Windfalls -- The Case of Emerging Producers: Mauritania -- The Case of Mature Producers: Nigeria -- Building Transparency and Accountability into the Fiscal Management of Oil Revenues -- Fiscal Control of Oil Revenues -- Budgeting Issues -- Internal Controls -- Audits -- Summary of Best Practices and Recommendations -- Rent Seeking -- Conclusion -- Annex: Key Features of the Model -- Notes -- References -- 10 Managing Oil Revenue Volatility in Nigeria: The Role of Fiscal Policy -- Introduction -- Oil Wealth and the Poor Growth Record: Lessons for the Future -- Poor Growth Record: The Challenge of Managing Oil Revenue Volatility.

Lessons for the Future.