Cover -- CONTENTS -- GLOBAL FINANCIAL SPILLOVERS TO EMERGING MARKET SOVEREIGN BOND MARKETS: THE ROLE OF FOREIGN PARTICIPATION AND THE INVESTOR BASE -- A. Introduction -- B. Foreign Participation and Government Bond Yields -- C. Foreign Participation, Investor Base Concentration, and the Transmission of Shocks -- D. Conclusion -- FIGURES -- 1. Global Financial Conditions and Foreign Participation in Ems Government Bond Markets -- 2. International Financial Spillovers into EMs -- TABLES -- 1. Foreign Holdings of FX Debt and Yield Volatility. Period 2004:Q1-2013:Q2 -- 2. Foreign Holdings of LC Debt and Yield Volatility. Period 2004:Q1-2013:Q2 -- 3. Foreign Holdings of FX Debt and FX Yield Level. Period 2004:Q1-2013:Q2 -- 4. Foreign Holdings of LC Debt and LC Yield Level. Period 2004:Q1-2013:Q2 -- 5. Panel Non-Linear Estimates -- REFERENCES -- CORPORATE SECTOR VULNERABILITIES -- A. Introduction -- B. Stylized Facts -- C. Resilience to Shocks -- D. Conclusion -- BOX -- 1. Measuring Nonfinancial Corporate Debt -- FIGURES -- 1. Poland: Corporate Sector Overview -- 2. Selected Countries: Credit to the Nonfinancial Sector -- 3. Selected Countries: Composition of Total Nonfinancial Corporate Debt -- 4. Poland: Nonfinancial Sector International Investment Position and Debt -- 5. Selected Countries: Nonfinancial Sector External Debt and Intercompany Debt -- 6. Selected Countries: Maturity Breakdown of Nonfinancial Sector External Debt -- 7. Poland and EMs: Composition of Nonfinancial Sector External Debt -- 8. Selected Countries: Debt Outstanding, Rollover Needs, and Debt Issuance -- 9. Poland and EMs: Nonfinancial Sector Securities Issuance -- 10. Selected Countries: Vulnerability Indicators -- 11. Poland: High-Frequency Vulnerability Indicators -- 12. Poland: Responses to Shocks -- REFERENCES -- CYCLICAL BEHAVIOR OF VAT REVENUES IN EUROPE.

A. Introduction -- B. Stylized Facts -- C. Empirical Design -- D. Results -- E. Exploring Asymmetries and Non-Linear Effects -- F. Policy Implications -- G. Conclusion -- TABLES -- 1. Linear Effect of Demand Shocks to VAT Revenues in Europe: Dynamic Heterogeneous Panel Estimates -- 2. Has the Crisis Led to a Shift in the Sensitivity of VAT Tax Receipts to Domestic Demand Shocks? -- 3. Type of Demand Shocks and Cyclicality of VAT Revenues -- 4. Role of Protracted Shocks -- REFERENCES -- THE POLISH PENSION SYSTEM: FISCAL IMPACT OF THE 2014 CHANGES AND REMAINING POLICY CHALLENGES -- A. Introduction -- B. Background and Methodology -- C. Assessing the Impact of the 2014 Pension Changes -- D. Assessing Legacy Fiscal Risks -- E. Conclusion -- BOXES -- 1. The 1999 Pension Reform -- 2. Accounting for the Fiscal Impact of Pension Changes -- TABLE -- 1. Summary Statistics of Selected Variables Under Alternative Scenarios -- REFERENCES -- ANNEXES -- I. Major Reforms and Modifications to the Polish Pension -- II. A Stylized Example -- ARE PRIVATE SAVING ACCELERATIONS PREDICTABLE? -- A. Introduction -- B. Empirical Design: Identifying Private Saving Transitions -- C. The Econometric Model: What Makes Increases in Private Saving Sustained? -- D. Correlates of Saving Accelerations: Econometric Results -- E. Causality Between Saving Accelerations and GDP Growth -- F. Conclusion -- FIGURES -- 1. The Case for Higher Saving Rates in Poland -- 2. Distribution of Private Saving Accelerations -- TABLES -- 1. Distribution of Saving Accelerations Across Countries -- 2. Determinants of Private Saving Accelerations in Emerging and Advanced Economies -- 3. Corrections for Rare Occurrence Bias: ReLogit Specifications -- 4. Correlates of Private Saving Accelerations (Emerging Markets Sample) -- 5. Poland and the Countries with at Least One Acceleration During the 2000s.

6. Saving Accelerations and Macroeconomic Performance During and After the Accelerations -- REFERENCES.