Trade and Thy Neighbor's War.
Başlık:
Trade and Thy Neighbor's War.
Yazar:
Qureshi, Mahvash Saeed.
ISBN:
9781452757117
Yazar Ek Girişi:
Fiziksel Tanımlama:
1 online resource (84 pages)
Seri:
IMF Working Papers
İçerik:
Cover Page -- Title Page -- Copyright Page -- Contents -- I. Introduction -- II. Methodology -- A. Analytical framework -- B. Estimation issues -- C. Defining neighbor at war -- III. Data -- A. Neighbor at war -- Figure 1. Conflict in neighboring countries, 1948-2006 -- Figure 2. Societal armed conflict in neighboring states, 1950-2006 -- Figure 3. International armed conflict in neighboring states, 1950-2006 -- Figure 4. Conflict and bilateral trade, 1948-2006 -- B. Dyadic data description -- Table 1. Correlation between domestic and regional conflicts, 1948-2006 -- Table 2. Distribution of societal and international conflict in neighbors, 1948-2006 -- IV. Empirical Results -- A. World sample -- Table 3. Estimation results for conflict presence, world sample (1948-2006) -- Table 4. Estimation results for conflict intensity, world sample (1948-2006) -- Table 5. Estimation results for border weighted conflict, world sample (1948-2006) -- B. Subsamples -- Table 6. Estimation results for conflict presence, subsamples (1948-2006) -- Table 7. Estimation results for conflict intensity, subsamples (1948-2006) -- Table 8. Estimation results for border weighted conflict presence, subsamples (1948-2006) -- Table 9. Estimation results for border weighted conflict intensity, subsamples (1948-2006) -- Figure 5. Regional conflict and trade, 1950-2006 -- C. Dynamic effects of neighbors at war -- Figure 6. Impact of regional conflicts on bilateral trade, 1948-2006 -- Table 10. Estimation results for regional conflict duration, 1948-2006 -- Table 11. Persistence in regional warfare effects, world sample (1948-2006) -- Table 12. Persistence in regional warfare effects, subsamples (1948-2006) -- D. Sensitivity analysis -- V. Conclusion -- Appendix A -- Table A1. Variable definitions and data sources.
Table A2. Summary statistics of selected variables for dyadic data -- Table A3. List of countries based on income groups -- Appendix B -- Table B1. Estimation results with alternate datasets -- Table B2. Estimation results with alternate proxies, 1948-2006 -- Table B3. Estimation results with alternate specifications, 1948-2006 -- Table B4. Estimation results with IV approach, 1948-2006 -- Table B5. Estimation results for different regions, 1948-2006 -- References -- Footnotes.
Özet:
This paper examines the spatial dispersion effects of regional conflicts, defined as internal or external armed conflicts in contiguous states, on international trade. Our empirical findings-based on different measures of conflict constructed using alternate definitions of contiguity and conflict-reveal a significant collateral damage in terms of foregone trade as a result of spillovers from conflict in neighboring countries. The magnitude of this negative externality is somewhat larger for international conflicts than intrastate warfare, but about one-third of conflict in the host economies. Further, the impact is persistent-on average, it takes bilateral trade three years to recover from the end of intrastate conflicts in neighboring states, and five years from international conflicts. These findings are robust to alternate definitions of conflict, estimation methods, and specifications, and underscore the importance of taking into account spillover effects when estimating the economic costs of warfare.
Notlar:
Electronic reproduction. Ann Arbor, Michigan : ProQuest Ebook Central, 2017. Available via World Wide Web. Access may be limited to ProQuest Ebook Central affiliated libraries.
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