Contents -- Preface -- Acknowledgments -- List of Figures -- List of Tables -- List of Abbreviations -- Chapter 1. Introduction and Overview -- 1.1. Introduction -- 1.2. Review of the S-Curve Hypothesis -- 1.2.1. Brief description of the S-Curve hypothesis -- 1.2.2. S-Curve and EGOIN theory -- 1.2.3. S-Curve and Triple C theory -- 1.3. Interpretations of the S-Curve -- 1.3.1. S-Curve as the development path of an economy -- 1.3.2. S-Curve as a snapshot of the world economy -- 1.4. Empirical Support of the S-Curve Hypothesis -- 1.4.1. Evidence 1: Relationship between long-term growth rate and per capita income level -- 1.4.2. Evidence 2: Growth patterns of country groups by income levels -- 1.4.3. Evidence 3: Cross-country income distribution -- 1.5. Insight and Implications of the S-Curve Hypothesis -- 1.6. Conclusion -- Chapter 2. Microeconomic Foundation of the S-Curve Hypothesis: A Stochastic Technological Diffusion Model -- 2.1. Introduction -- 2.2. Barro and Sala-i-Martin's Technological Diffusion Model -- 2.2.1. Descriptive properties of the model -- 2.2.2. Inadequacy of the model in describing economic development -- 2.3. Interpretation and Enhancement of the Productivity Parameter -- 2.3.1. Productivity parameter and EGOIN theory -- 2.3.2. Endogeneity of productivity parameter A -- 2.3.3. Role of chance in the productivity parameter -- 2.3.4. Formulation of the productivity parameter -- 2.4. The Stochastic Technological Diffusion Model -- 2.4.1. Setup of the model -- 2.4.2. Innovation in country 1 -- 2.4.3. Imitation in country 2 -- 2.4.3.1. Imitators of intermediate goods and producers of final goods -- 2.4.3.2. Representative consumer -- 2.4.4. Output of the economy -- 2.4.5. Growth rate of N2 -- 2.4.6. Expected growth rate of Y2 -- 2.4.7. The steady state -- 2.4.8. Technological leadership -- 2.5. Result.

Case 1: Turtle Economy that Never Catches Up -- Case 2: Turtle Economy that Transforms into a Horse Economy -- Case 3: Horse Economy that Catches Up with the Elephant Economy -- 2.6. Conclusion -- Chapter 3. Testing of Growth Convergence and Economic Transition Under the Framework of the S-Curve Hypothesis -- 3.1. Introduction -- 3.1.1. S-Curve hypothesis' predictions on growth convergence -- 3.1.2. Econometric modeling of growth convergence by Phillips and Sul -- 3.1.3. Synergizing Lim's S-Curve hypothesis and Phillips and Sul's modeling of economic transition -- 3.2. Review of Phillips and Sul's Methodology -- 3.2.1. Modeling economic transitions -- 3.2.2. Testing convergence using variance ratio -- 3.3. Analysis of Transition Paths -- 3.3.1. Data and categorization of economies -- Categorization of economies -- Fitting the transition curve -- 3.3.2. Relative transition curves of the 3 groups of economies -- 3.3.3. Relative transition curves of the elephant economies -- 3.3.4. Relative transition curves of the horse economies -- 3.3.5. Relative transition curves of the turtle economies -- 3.4. Econometric Testing of Growth Convergence -- 3.5. Conclusion -- 3.6. Appendix: List of Economies and Their Abbreviations -- Chapter 4. Hypothesis of the S-Curve of Capital Accumulation and Its Implied Capital-Output Ratios -- 4.1. Introduction -- 4.2. Hypothesis of the S-Curve of Capital Accumulation -- 4.2.1. Stage I: Low capital stock, low capital growth -- 4.2.2. Stage II: Middle capital stock, high capital growth -- 4.2.3. Stage III: High capital stock, low capital growth -- 4.3. Capital-Output Ratios and Economic Development -- 4.3.1. Factors influencing level of ICOR -- 4.3.2. Relationship between ICOR and ACOR -- 4.3.3. S-Curve of capital accumulation and its implied ICOR and ACOR1.

4.4. International Evidence on Capital Accumulation and Economic Development -- 4.4.1. Data source -- 4.4.2. Capital level and output level -- 4.4.3. Capital growth and output growth -- 4.4.4. ACOR and economic development -- 4.5. Capital Accumulation and Economic Development of Singapore -- 4.5.1. Singapore's S-Curve of capital accumulation -- 4.5.2. Singapore's capital and economic development -- 4.5.3. Granger causality between Singapore's capital accumulation and GDP growth -- 4.5.4. Singapore's capital-output ratios -- 4.6. Capital Growth and Total Factor Productivity Growth of Singapore -- 4.7. Conclusion -- 4.8. Appendix 1: Constructing Singapore's Capital Stock Data -- 4.9. Appendix 2: Difficulties in the Measurement of Incremental Capital-Output Ratio -- 5. The S-Curves of Singapore and Japan -- 5.1. Introduction -- 5.2. The S-Curve of Singapore's Economy -- 5.3. The S-Curve of Japan's Economy -- 5.4. Economic Transformation of Japan from Horse to Elephant Economy -- 5.4.1. Galloping horse: the 1950s-1960s -- 5.4.2. Gradual transformation into an elephant economy: the 1970s-1980s -- 5.4.3. Matured elephant economy: the 1990s-present -- 5.5. Is Singapore an Elephant Economy? -- 5.6. Conclusion: Pushing the Envelope of the Growth Potential of Singapore -- Bibliography -- Index.