A statistical cash flow model for developing pricing strategy in the construction industry için kapak resmi
A statistical cash flow model for developing pricing strategy in the construction industry
Başlık:
A statistical cash flow model for developing pricing strategy in the construction industry
Yazar:
Söker, Ali İkram, author.
Yazar Ek Girişi:
Fiziksel Tanımlama:
xi, 55 leaves: charts;+ 1 computer laser optical disc.
Özet:
This thesis presents a cash flow model to identify the risks and develop a strategy including pricing for build-and-sell real-estate development projects, in which a flat-for-land agreement is made. Discrete Event Simulation method is used for the uncertain variables and MATCH Uncertainty Elicitation Tool is used to transform expert judgments to probability distributions for variables. The model aims to simplify the complex uncertainties in land acquisition, construction, and selling of the constructed properties and estimate a cash flow to evaluate the risk for profit and negative cash balance during the project. The construction cost, property sales times and prices, advance and monthly payments for each sale are simulated to estimate the cash flow. A real-life case study data was simulated to observe results and test the model. Results of the case study have shown that the risk of loss at the end of the project increases when Net Present Value is calculated as well as the profit decreases because the cash-out flow tends to be more at the early stages of construction while cash-in flow tends to be more near the end. Furthermore, the failure risk of the project was so high because of the months with negative cash balance which is with 77.6 % probability and at a range between 11 to 15 months. Finally, actions such as increasing or decreasing property prices, working capital, loan amount and loan duration to improve the project’s performance are discussed together with their impact on profitability while avoiding negative cash balance. Keywords: Eliciting Probability Distributions, Cash Flow Risk Management, Discrete Event Simulation, Flat-for-Land Investments, Pricing Strategy.
Yazar Ek Girişi:
Tek Biçim Eser Adı:
Thesis (Master)--İzmir Institute of Technology:Architecture.

İzmir Institute of Technology: Architecture --Thesis (Master).
Elektronik Erişim:
Access to Electronic Versiyon.
Ayırtma: Copies: