Automotive Fuel Economy -- Copyright -- PREFACE -- Contents -- EXECUTIVE SUMMARY -- TECHNICALLY ACHIEVABLE FUEL ECONOMY LEVELS -- PROVEN AND EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES FOR IMPROVING FUEL ECONOMY -- SAFETY IMPLICATIONS -- ENVIRONMENTAL ISSUES -- THE AUTOMOTIVE INDUSTRY -- THE CONSUMER -- POLICIES FOR IMPROVING FUEL ECONOMY -- 1 INTRODUCTION -- FUEL ECONOMY TRENDS SINCE 1975 -- THE COSTS AND BENEFITS OF REDUCED AUTOMOTIVE FUEL CONSUMPTION -- Potential Benefits -- Potential Costs -- THE COMPLEXITY OF THE PROBLEM -- ORGANIZATION OF REPORT -- REFERENCES -- 2 FUEL USE IN AUTOMOBILES AND LIGHT TRUCKS -- THE VEHICLE AS A SYSTEM -- ENGINE TECHNOLOGY AND FUEL USE -- Standard Engine Technology -- Performance/Fuel Economy Trade-Offs -- FUEL ECONOMY TECHNOLOGIES FOR THE NEXT DECADE -- Proven Technologies -- Emerging Technologies -- SUMMARY -- REFERENCES -- 3 SAFETY IMPLICATIONS OF FUEL ECONOMY MEASURES -- BACKGROUND -- VEHICLE CHARACTERISTICS AND FATALITY RISK -- Risk of Crash Involvement -- Risk of Injury -- Design Compatibility -- SAFETY ISSUES IN IMPROVING FUEL ECONOMY -- Impact of Downsizing and Downweighting on Safety -- Past Studies -- Data Issues -- Individual versus Societal Risk -- Light Trucks -- Potential for Enhancing Safety through Design and Technology -- STRATEGIES FOR IMPROVING SAFETY AND FUEL ECONOMY -- Exposure Control -- Crash Prevention -- Behavior Modification -- SAFETY AS A SOCIETAL VALUE -- FINDINGS AND CONCLUSIONS -- REFERENCES -- 4 ENVIRONMENTAL ISSUES -- THE NATURE OF AUTOMOTIVE EMISSIONS -- AUTOMOTIVE EMISSIONS CONTROL AND AIR QUALITY: A BRIEF HISTORY -- STANDARDS IN THE 1990 CLEAN AIR ACT AMENDMENTS -- Federal Standards -- California Standards -- Emission Standards and Technology Development -- EMISSIONS CONTROL AND FUEL ECONOMY -- Control of Oxides of Nitrogen -- The Technical Challenge: Lean NOx Catalyst.

Alternative NOx Control Strategies -- Control of Hydrocarbons -- Heated Catalysts -- Gasoline Volatility -- Reformulated Gasolines -- Sulfur in Gasoline -- Alternative Fuels -- Control of Stationary Sources -- Impact of Emissions Standards on Light Trucks -- Surveillance of Existing Vehicles -- INDIRECT IMPACTS -- CONCLUSIONS -- REFERENCES -- 5 IMPACTS ON THE AUTOMOTIVE INDUSTRY -- FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE -- EFFECTS OF COMPETITION -- Industry Trends -- Employment Trends -- Changing Market Share -- Product Development -- Manufacturing Productivity -- Capacity for Investment -- Structural Change in the Industry -- THE INTERNATIONAL AUTOMOTIVE MARKET -- Impact of Fuel Prices -- Concerns over Greenhouse Gases -- FINDINGS AND CONCLUSIONS -- REFERENCES -- 6 THE AUTOMOBILE, FUEL ECONOMY, AND THE CONSUMER -- THE AUTO MARKET IS A REPLACEMENT MARKET -- BALANCING FUEL COST, PURCHASE PRICE, AND VEHICLE CHARACTERISTICS -- THE AGING POPULATION MAY DEMAND FEWER SMALL CARS -- SHIFTS IN AGGREGATE CONSUMER PREFERENCES -- IMPACTS OF MANDATED FUEL ECONOMY ON THE CONSUMER -- FINDINGS AND CONCLUSIONS -- REFERENCES -- 7 FUEL ECONOMY PROJECTIONS -- PROJECTING FUEL ECONOMY LEVELS -- Previous Efforts -- Overview of the Projection Methods -- Assumptions Common to All Projections -- HISTORICAL TREND PROJECTIONS -- BEST-IN-CLASS (BIC) PROJECTIONS -- TECHNOLOGY-PENETRATION OR SHOPPING CART PROJECTIONS -- Method and Assumptions -- Data -- Results -- CONCLUSIONS -- REFERENCES -- 8 ACHIEVABLE FUEL ECONOMY LEVELS -- TECHNICALLY ACHIEVABLE FUEL ECONOMY -- Method and Assumptions -- Results -- PRACTICALLY ACHIEVABLE FUEL ECONOMY -- Cost-Benefit Considerations -- Costs and Benefits of Higher Fuel Economy to Consumers -- Costs and Benefits of Higher Fuel Economy to Manufacturers -- Sales -- Employment -- Competitiveness -- Costs and Benefits of Higher Fuel Economy to the Nation.

Petroleum Consumption -- Safety -- Emissions and the Environment -- The Risk of Choosing Incorrectly -- POLICY COORDINATION AND ANALYSIS -- REFERENCES -- 9 POLICIES FOR IMPROVING FUEL ECONOMY -- COMMENTS ON THE EXISTING CAFE SYSTEM -- MARKET APPROACHES TO REDUCED FUEL CONSUMPTION -- Increases in Fuel Price -- Fees and Rebates for Fuel Economy -- IMPROVING THE CAFE SYSTEM -- Timing -- Alternatives to Uniform Fleet Targets -- Light Trucks -- Domestic Content -- CAFE Credits -- Unlawful Conduct -- OTHER POLICIES FOR REDUCING FUEL CONSUMPTION -- SUMMARY -- REFERENCES -- APPENDIX A PRESS RELEASE ANNOUNCING FUEL ECONOMY STUDY -- INTRODUCTION -- OBJECTIVES -- PROPOSED EFFORT -- PHASE 1 -- Task 1 -- Task 2 -- Task 3 -- Task 4 -- PHASE 2 -- Task 5 -- Task 6 -- ANTICIPATED RESULTS -- Committee Agenda: -- APPENDIX B PROVEN AUTOMOTIVE TECHNOLOGIES: FUEL ECONOMY AND PRICE IMPLICATIONS -- DATA SOURCES FOR THE SHOPPING CART PROJECTIONS -- ENGINE TECHNOLOGIES -- General -- Roller Cam Followers -- Friction Reduction -- Accessory Improvements -- Deceleration Fuel Restriction -- Compression Ratio Increase -- Fuel Systems (Throttle-Body And Multipoint Fuel Injection) -- Valve Train Technologies -- Overhead Camshaft -- Four Valves per Cylinder -- Variable Valve Timing and Lift Control -- Number of Cylinders -- Transmission Technologies -- Torque Converter Lockup -- Electronic Transmission Controls -- 4-Speed and 5-Speed Automatic Transmissions -- Continuously Variable Transmissions -- 5-Speed Manual Transmission -- ROLLING RESISTANCE, AERODYNAMICS, WEIGHT, PERFORMANCE -- Front-Wheel Drive -- Aerodynamics -- Weight Reduction -- Electric Power Steering -- Advanced Tires, Rolling Resistance -- Reductions in Performance -- REFERENCES -- APPENDIX C EMERGING ENGINE TECHNOLOGIES AND CONCEPT AND PROTOTYPE VEHICLES -- EMERGING ENGINE TECHNOLOGIES -- Lean-Burn Engine.

Diesel Engine -- Two-Stroke Engine -- CONCEPT AND PROTOTYPE VEHICLES -- REFERENCES -- Appendix D Vehicle Size and Occupant Safety: Private Versus Societal Risks in Two-Car Collisions -- APPENDIX E SHOPPING CART PROJECTION METHOD: AN ILLUSTRATION FOR SUBCOMPACT CARS -- REFERENCES -- APPENDIX F COMMITTEE MEETINGS AND ACTIVITIES -- APPENDIX G BIOGRAPHICAL SKETCHES OF COMMITTEE MEMBERS -- INDEX.