Table of Contents -- Foreword -- Preface -- Acronyms and notions -- List of Plates -- List of symbols -- Chapter 1. Introduction -- Chapter 2. Background on Orthogonal Functions and Covariance -- 2.1 Orthogonal functions -- 2.2 Correlation and covariance -- 2.3 Issues about removal of ''the mean'' -- 2.4 Concluding remarks -- Appendix: The anomaly correlation -- Chapter 3. Empirical Wave Propagation -- 3.1 Data and EWP method -- 3.1.1 Data treatment -- 3.1.2 Amplitude -- 3.1.3 Phase shifting -- 3.1.4 Mean propagation -- 3.1.5 EWP forecast method -- 3.2 EWP diagnostics -- 3.3 Rock in the pond experiments -- 3.4 Skill of EWP one-day forecasts -- 3.5 Discussion of EWP -- 3.5.1 Eulerian and Lagrangian persistence -- 3.5.2 Reversing time and targeted observations -- 3.5.3 Application of EWP -- 3.5.4 Historical note -- 3.5.5 Weak points of EWP -- Appendix 1: EWP formal derivation -- Appendix 2: The Rossby equation -- Chapter 4. Teleconnections -- 4.1 Working definition -- 4.2 Two most famous examples in NH -- 4.3 The measure of teleconnection -- 4.4 Finding teleconnections systematically (EOT) -- 4.5 Discussion -- 4.6 Monitoring, indices and station data -- 4.7 Closing comment -- Chapter 5. Empirical Orthogonal Functions -- 5.1 Methods and definitions -- 5.1.1 Working definition -- 5.1.2 The covariance matrix -- 5.1.3 The alternative covariance matrix -- 5.1.4 The covariance matrix: context -- 5.1.5 EOF through eigenanalysis -- 5.1.6 Explained variance (EV) -- 5.2 Examples -- 5.3 Simplification of EOF-EOT -- 5.4 Discussion of EOF -- 5.4.1 Summary of procedures and properties -- 5.4.2 The spectrum -- 5.4.3 Interpretation of EOF -- 5.4.4 Reproducibility (sampling variability) -- 5.4.5 Variations on the EOF theme -- 5.4.6 EOF in models -- 5.4.7 More examples -- 5.4.8 Common misunderstandings -- 5.4.9 Closing comment -- Appendix 1: Post processing.

Appendix 2: Iteration -- Chapter 6. Degrees of Freedom -- 6.1 Methods to estimate effective degrees of freedom, N -- 6.2 Example -- 6.3 Link of degrees of freedom to EOF -- 6.4 Remaining questions -- 6.5 Concluding comments -- Chapter 7. Analogues -- 7.1 Natural analogues (NA) -- 7.1.1 Similarity measures -- 7.1.2 Search for 500 mb height analogues -- 7.1.3 How long do we have to wait? -- 7.1.4 Application of natural analogues -- 7.2 Constructed analogues -- 7.2.1 The idea -- 7.2.2 The method of finding the weights α[sub(j)] -- 7.2.3 Example of the weights -- 7.3 Specification or downscaling -- 7.4 Global seasonal SST forecasts -- 7.5 Short-range forecasts and dispersion experiments -- 7.5.1 Short-range forecasts -- 7.5.2 CA dispersion experiment -- 7.6 Calculating the fastest growing modes by empirical means -- 7.6.1 Growing modes -- 7.6.2 Example -- 7.6.3 Discussion of growing modes -- Appendix: Forecasts with CA -- Chapter 8. Methods in Short-Term Climate Prediction -- 8.1 Climatology -- 8.2 Persistence -- 8.3 Optimal climate normals -- 8.4 Local regression -- 8.5 Non-local regression and ENSO -- 8.6 Composites -- 8.7 Regression on the pattern level -- 8.7.1 The time-lagged covariance matrix -- 8.7.2 CCA, SVD and EOT2 -- 8.7.3 LIM, POP and Markov -- 8.8 Numerical methods -- 8.9 Consolidation -- 8.10 Other methods -- 8.11 Methods not used -- Appendix 1: Some practical space-time continuity requirements -- Appendix 2: Consolidation by ridge regression -- Chapter 9. The Practice of Short-Term Climate Prediction -- 9.1 On the seasonal mean -- 9.2 Lay-out of the forecasts -- 9.3 Time-scales in the seasonal forecast -- 9.4 Which elements are forecast, and by which methods? -- 9.5 Expressing uncertainty -- 9.6 Simplifications of the probability forecast (the three classes) -- 9.7 Format of the forecast -- 9.8 The official forecast.

9.9 Verification 1: a priori skill and hindcasts -- 9.10 Verification 2: Heidke skill scores -- 9.11 Trends -- 9.12 Forecasts of opportunity (and the tension with regularly scheduled opertions) -- Appendix: Historical notes -- Chapter 10. Conclusion -- 10.1 Linearity -- 10.2 Relative performance GCMs and empirical methods -- 10.3 Predictability -- 10.4 The future of short-term climate prediction -- References -- Index -- A -- B -- C -- D -- E -- F -- G -- H -- I -- J -- K -- L -- M -- N -- O -- P -- Q -- R -- S -- T -- U -- V -- W -- X -- Y -- Z.