Nigeria : 2013 Article IV Consultation-Staff Report; Press Release and Statement by the Executive Director for Nigeria.
Başlık:
Nigeria : 2013 Article IV Consultation-Staff Report; Press Release and Statement by the Executive Director for Nigeria.
Yazar:
African Dept., International Monetary Fund.
ISBN:
9781475590104
Yazar Ek Girişi:
Fiziksel Tanımlama:
1 online resource (104 pages)
Seri:
IMF Staff Country Reports
İçerik:
Cover -- CONTENTS -- CONTEXT -- RECENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS AND OUTLOOK -- A. Recent Economic and Policy Developments -- B. Medium-Term Outlook and Risks -- C. Inward and Outward Spillovers -- ADDRESSING OIL THEFT/PRODUCTION LOSSES -- STRONG ECONOMIC MANAGEMENT, NOTWITHSTANDING THE POLITICAL CYCLE -- A. Preserving Fiscal Consolidation Through the Political Cycle -- B. Monetary, Financial, and Exchange Rate Policies -- C. Improving Competitiveness and Productivity -- STAFF APPRAISAL -- BOXES -- 1. Authorities' Response to Past IMF Policy Recommendations -- 2. Strengthening the Monitoring and Reconciliation of Oil Revenue Flows -- 3. The Challenge of Fiscal Federalism in Nigeria -- 4. Follow-up on the 2012 FSAP Recommendations -- FIGURES -- 1. Real Sector Development, 2005-13 -- 2. External and Exchange Rate Developments, 2010-13 -- 3. Fiscal Developments, 2001-13 -- 4. Monetary and Financial Developments, 2010-13 -- 5. Key Indicators of the Oil Sector, 2005-12 -- 6. Oil Price Shock, 2013-18 -- 7. Fiscal Expansion, 2013-18 -- 8. Vulnerabilities in the Oil Sector, 2013-18 -- TABLES -- 1. Millennium Development Goals, 1990-11 -- 2. Selected Economic and Financial Indicators, 2012-18 -- 3. Balance of Payments, 2010-16 -- 4a. Federal Government Operations, 2010-16 -- 4b. Consolidated Government, 2010-16 -- 4c. Government Operations, 2010-16 -- 4d. State and Local Governments, 2011-16 -- 4e. Extrabudgetary Funds (including ECA/SWF), 2011-16 -- 5a. Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Analytical Balance Sheet, 2011-16 -- 5b. Monetary Survey, 2011-16 -- 6. Financial Soundness Indicators: 2011-13 -- 7. Risk Assessment Matrix (RAM) -- APPENDICES -- I. Changing Trends in Oil Markets? -- II: Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Rebasing and Implications -- III. Oil Theft in Nigeria and Proposed Countermeasures -- IV. Estimates of the Sustainable Non-Oil Primary Deficit.
V. External Sector Assessment -- VI. Tracking Job Creation -- VII. Trade Policy and Competitiveness: Agriculture in Nigeria -- CONTENTS -- FUND RELATIONS -- JOINT WORLD BANK-IMF WORK PROGRAM, 2013-14 -- STATISTICAL ISSUES.
Özet:
KEY ISSUESContext. Despite recent strong non-oil growth, poverty and income inequality remainhigh and social and governance indicators are below averages for sub-Saharan Africa. Structural reforms under the Transformation Agenda are ongoing, but significant infrastructure gaps and weak institutional capacity still retard growth prospects. At the same time, vulnerabilities are rising in the buildup to general elections in 2015 and fiscal buffers have been reduced. Meanwhile, GDP is being rebased and structural shifts may suggest a refocus in some policy areas.Outlook and Risks. Growth is expected to remain strong, driven by agriculture, trade, and services. Inflation should continue to decline, in line with a tight monetary policy, and a lowering trend in food prices from higher rice and wheat production. Key downside risks are (i) persistently lower oil revenue from changing global dynamics and lower domestic production; (ii) less prudent fiscal policy through the ongoing political cycle; (iii) ongoing security problems in the North; (iv) uncertainty about the pace of global recovery; and (v) capital flow reversals from the expected unwinding of unconventional monetary policy (UMP) in the advanced economies or increased domestic political risk.Addressing oil theft/production losses. Transparency and governance in the oil sector should be enhanced, including by strengthening the regulatory framework through the passage of a sound Petroleum Industry Bill (PIB) featuring stringent enforcement clauses. A multicountry partner strategy could also improve oil sector oversight.Rebuilding fiscal buffers by insulating macrofinancial stability from the political cycle. The fiscal framework should continue to be improved, with an appropriately conservative 2014 budget. Monetary policy should remain supportively tight, given the potential for capital flow
reversals and fiscal slippages. In the event of persistent pressures, the naira should be allowed to adjust and reserve adequacy maintained.Improving competitiveness and productivity to generate inclusive growth will require wide-ranging structural reforms. Three key areas could help promote inclusive growthincreasing the delivery of power, broadening the agricultural production base, and increasing access to finance for SMEs. Support for sectoral growth should be underpinned by improvements in competitiveness rather than by protectionist measures.
Notlar:
Electronic reproduction. Ann Arbor, Michigan : ProQuest Ebook Central, 2017. Available via World Wide Web. Access may be limited to ProQuest Ebook Central affiliated libraries.
Tür:
Elektronik Erişim:
Click to View